The SEC Tournament's first round gets underway on Wednesday, March 11, with the early window featuring two teams vying for a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (13-18) and Auburn Tigers (16-15) clash on Wednesday, with tip-off set for 3:00 p.m. ET on SEC Network and the Tigers being 7.5-point favorites.
Who could have an advantage for Wednesday’s Mississippi State vs. Auburn pick against the spread? Use PrizePicks Team Picks to make predictions on game winners, spreads, over/unders, and more.
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Mississippi State vs. Auburn Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Auburn has dominated this rivalry in recent years, winning eight of the last 10 dating back to the 2018-19 campaign. In their most recent matchup on February 18, Mississippi State defeated Auburn 91-85 at home, covering the +5.5 spread.
Auburn is 13-18 against the spread this year, including 3-3 on a neutral site. Mississippi State is 10-21 ATS, also sitting 1-4 on neutral sites.
Mississippi State vs. Auburn Spread, Over/Under
Auburn enters this matchup as a 7.5-point favorite, returning a 1.29x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Mississippi State are the underdogs with a 3.33x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Spread: Auburn Tigers -7.5
- Over/Under: 159.5
- Game Winner Payout: Mississippi State 3.33x | Auburn 1.29x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Mississippi State vs. Auburn Prediction on Spread – 3/11/26
The last matchup between these squads was an absolute thriller.
Mississippi State, at one point, held an 18-point lead. Auburn later came back and pulled ahead, but Mississippi State ultimately mounted its own comeback to win. The Tigers didn't defeat the Bulldogs, which surprised many given that Auburn’s KenPom Rating is 39th (18.73), while Mississippi State's is 100th (7.28).
In the most recent meeting, the normally slow-paced Auburn (193rd in possessions per game at 67.1) was unable to control the tempo against Mississippi State, which ranks 67th (69.6). The Bulldogs delivered one of their best performances of the season, shooting 50% from the floor and a season-best 53.3% from deep.
Mississippi State G Josh Hubbard went scorched-earth on the Tigers with a career-high 46 points, including a program record 10 3-pointers. If the Bulldogs want to secure another upset, the 10th-best scorer in the nation (22.1 PPG) may need to play a major role.
The last matchup could be a case of Mississippi State catching lightning in a bottle. On the year, the Bulldogs shoot just 32.6% from 3-point range, 251st in the country. Since Hubbard’s record-setting game, he's made more than a pair of 3-pointers just once.
With that said, Auburn is struggling in the second half of the season. After starting the season with a 14-7 record, including a win over reigning national champion Florida, they've lost six of their last eight.
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Make Mississippi State vs. Auburn Picks on PrizePicks
Can Mississippi State pull off another upset on Wednesday, or will Auburn get back on track in its pursuit to punch a ticket to the NCAA Tournament?
You can get action on game winners, spreads, and over/under predictions on PrizePicks Team Picks for the first round of the SEC Tournament.
Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can also make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.
