In Week 12 of the college football season, Minnesota (6-3) travels to Eugene for a Friday night Big Ten showdown against Oregon (8-1) at Autzen Stadium.
The Ducks have built one of the nation’s most efficient offenses and a lockdown pass defense, while the Golden Gophers lean into QB Drake Lindsey’s growth and a run game that’s still catching up.
Below, we’ll break down our Minnesota vs. Oregon prediction and Friday college football picks, also highlighting the top PrizePicks player picks to targets for this prime time Big Ten matchup set for 9:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
Minnesota vs. Oregon Prediction, Preview: Friday, Nov. 14
This Big Ten matchup brings two sharply contrasting offensive identities into focus: Minnesota’s slow-paced, play-action-driven structure versus an Oregon attack that ranks among the most efficient in the country.
The Ducks have playoff hopes, whereas the Gophers seem to have the temperament of a team that doesn’t care about your aspirations.
Here’s how the two may collide on Friday night.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Preview vs. Oregon
Minnesota arrives fresh off a 23-20 overtime escape against Michigan State — the kind of grimy, grit-stained win that fits the program’s personality. Lindsey played one of his most composed games yet, going 26-of-39 while scoring the tying TD late in the fourth quarter and the game-winner in OT.
For a team still searching for offensive pop, Lindsey has become the foundation of a passing game that needs every ounce of stability it can get.
The run game remains a patchwork unit. RB Fame Ijeboi (384 yards) provides the spark, including 108 tough yards last week, while RB Darius Taylor adds efficiency with a 4.34-yard average and 30% success rate, per Game on Paper. The Gophers rush for just 91.6 yards per game (129th nationally), which is why Lindsey routinely shoulders volume.
Where Minnesota makes its mark is up front on defense. After a 9-sack eruption against Nebraska on Oct. 17, the unit is looking strong once again. It recorded 7 sacks and 12 tackles for loss against Michigan State on Nov. 1 — a level of sustained chaos you don’t usually see from a team outside the national defensive spotlight.
Minnesota allows just 346.3 yards per game (21st nationally), and while the secondary gives up 215.2 passing yards per game, the pressure on the front lines has been the great equalizer. If the Gophers are going to rattle this Oregon machine, it starts right there.
Oregon Ducks Preview vs. Minnesota
Oregon enters after surviving an 18-16 slugfest with Iowa that saw them play old school football, rushing for 261 yards against a top-10 Hawkeyes run defense and leaning on a 39-yard game-winning kick from Atticus Sappington with three seconds left. It wasn’t pretty, but it showed how many different ways this team can win.
QB Dante Moore wasn’t sharp statistically (112 yards, 1 INT), but he delivered five completions on the final drive — a small window into his resilience. On the season, Moore owns 1,884 yards, 19 TDs, just 5 INTs, and a 70.5% completion rate. His +0.13 EPA per dropback (Game on Paper) reflects a QB who won’t dominate every box score but rarely puts his team behind the sticks.
The real terror is Oregon’s run game. RB Noah Whittington is the tip of a spear that averages 239.7 yards per game (sixth nationally). Combine that with a top-10 rushing success rate (46.9%), and Oregon’s identity becomes obvious.
Through the air, WR Dakorien Moore (443 yards, 64% catch rate) remains the steadying force, with WR Malik Benson and TE/WR Kenyon Sadiq stretching the field.
Oregon’s defense has been elite across the board, allowing just 239.3 yards per game (third) and 126.1 passing yards per game — the top mark in the country. They also rank sixth in scoring defense (13.8 PPG) and sit first in EPA/pass at -0.32.
Minnesota vs. Oregon Picks for Friday CFB
Here are the PrizePicks player pick targets for Friday’s Big Ten matchup between Minnesota and Oregon.
Minnesota QB Drake Lindsey Projection vs. Oregon: 133.5 Passing Yards
- Lindsey has thrown for 1,743 yards, 10 TDs, and 6 INTs while completing 62.2% of his passes.
- His +0.03 EPA per pass reflects steady, but modest efficiency.
- The Ducks stiffen routes early, ranking fourth in passing success rate allowed (32.8%).
- Lindsey has cleared 190 yards in two of his past five matchups.
- Minnesota leans on the pass out of necessity (36 attempts per game) due to negative rushing EPA/play (-0.13).
Oregon QB Dante Moore Projection vs. Minnesota: 202.5 Passing Yards
- Moore enters Week 12 with 1,884 passing yards, 19 TDs and only 5 INTs while completing 70.5% of his throws.
- His +0.13 EPA/pass highlights his clean, on-schedule play.
- Minnesota allows 203.4 passing yards per game (46th nationally) — a far more forgiving matchup than Iowa’s top-five unit.
- The Ducks convert 46.0% of third downs, helping Moore stack volume.
- Minnesota allows a 39.7% passing success rate (57th), leaving soft intermediate windows Moore loves to hit.
Oregon RB Noah Whittington Projection vs. Minnesota: 80.5 Rushing Yards
- Whittington has turned 68 carries into 551 yards, averaging 8.1 per carry (and 4.78 vs. FBS only).
- He posted 118 yards last week against Iowa, a matchup far tougher than this one.
- Minnesota's defense allows just 108.1 rushing yards per game (21st nationally) but ranks 91st in rushing success rate, which is where Oregon’s line can take control.
- Oregon sits 10th in EPA/rush (+0.17).
- Whittington is top 10 in yards after contact per attempt, which could make a solid game attainable with his workload.
Make Minnesota vs. #8 Oregon Picks on PrizePicks
This Friday night Big Ten matchup blends Oregon’s efficiency and explosiveness with Minnesota’s quietly-surging defensive front. The Ducks hold the clear statistical edges, but Minnesota’s ability to muddy up the game and generate pressure could keep this contest competitive.
With PrizePicks and the Playbook, you can cash in on Friday night's Big Ten action by targeting players like Dante Moore, Drake Lindsey, Noah Whittington, and more.
Just pick your players, choose More or Less on their projections, and cash in if you’re right.
