The Missouri State Bears (2-3) travel to Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro, Tenn., on Wednesday night for a CUSA matchup against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-4).
Both teams are coming off tough Week 5 losses; Missouri State fell 27-22 at home to Western Kentucky, while Middle Tennessee dropped its third straight road game, a 24-16 defeat at Kennesaw State.
Below, we’ll break down our Middle Tennessee vs. Missouri State prediction and the top PrizePicks player picks for this midweek showdown set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
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The Bears are adjusting to life with freshman QB Deuce Bailey under center, while the Blue Raiders are still searching for consistent production from senior signal-caller Nicholas Vattiato. MTSU leads the all-time series 1-0, but this is the first meeting between these programs as CUSA foes.
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MTSU vs. Missouri State Prediction, Preview: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Here’s a look inside the Middle Tennessee vs. Missouri State game prediction for Wednesday night, with previews for both sides of the ball.
We could see a game with plenty of punts and stalled drives, with field position dictating much of the outcome.
Middle Tennessee Preview
The Blue Raiders are still searching for consistency under head coach Derek Mason. Vattiato has thrown for 1,125 yards, but is still unspectacular through the air with a 58.4% completion rate, per PFF.
MTSU’s offense averages just 17 points per game and has converted only 29.7% of its third downs, which is 134th in FBS, per Game On Paper. The run game has been particularly ineffective, generating only 3.1 yards per carry behind an offensive line that’s already allowed 18 sacks. That inefficiency has made it difficult to mount sustained scoring drives.
The strength of this team lies in its defensive front. The Blue Raiders are allowing 3.8 yards per carry at home and grade out as the second-best run defense in CUSA, per PFF. That’s an important edge against a Missouri State offense that is just beginning to establish itself on the ground.
Missouri State Preview
The Bears nearly pulled off an upset of CUSA favorite Western Kentucky last week despite losing senior QB Jacob Clark to a leg injury in the second quarter. QB Deuce Bailey entered and kept the offense afloat with two second-half touchdown drives, though the passing game sputtered overall.
Missouri State has finally found balance on the ground. RB Shomari Lawrence paced the unit in Week 6 with 78 yards and a TD, while Bailey added 61 of his own. That’s a critical development for an offense that had been among the bottom 10 nationally in rushing before Week 5.
Lawrence should be a factor once again on Wednesday in a downhill affair. He’s up to 286 yards on 4.3 yards per carry through five appearances.
Defensively, Missouri State has been far more competitive than the raw numbers show. This unit slowed WKU’s pass game for long stretches and forced multiple turnovers on downs. They also flashed resilience earlier in the year against SMU, even after surrendering 73 points to USC in the opener.
If Bailey can protect the football and sustain drives, this defense has shown it can keep the Bears in games.
MTSU vs. Missouri St. Picks for Wednesday Night
Here are the player picks to target on PrizePicks' real money college football game and in CFB DFS for Liberty vs. UTEP on Wednesday night.
MTSU QB Nicholas Vattiato Projection: 269.5 Passing Yards
Vattiato has been streaky, with less than 200 yards in his first two games, and 278+ in each of the last two, but Missouri State’s secondary has given up big plays on early downs, allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt (111th in the nation).
With MTSU struggling to run the ball, ranking 12rd of 136 teams in rush yards per game (91.8), Vattiato will once again shoulder the offensive burden.
When he does pass, Vattiato will face a Missouri State pass defense that's giving up over 260 pass yards per game.
If the Bears sell out to stop the short passing game, it could leave opportunities for intermediate throws and yards after the catch. Volume alone gives Vattiato a path to success on Wednesday night, as Middle Tennessee ranks 11th in pass play percentage per game at 59.9%.
Missouri State RB Shomari Lawrence Projection: 70.5 Rushing Yards
Missouri St. RB Shomari Lawrence’s 78-yard outing last week was his best of the season, and he’s cleared 12 rushing attempts in four of his five appearances in 2025.
With Bailey still settling in at QB, look for the Bears to lean on Lawrence early and often. Middle Tennessee is giving up 5.0 yards per carry (109th) and 180 rush yards per game (103rd).
That's probably due to a 14.9% missed tackle rate heading into Week 7 — and this defense hasn’t faced many offenses that are as committed to pounding the rock after losing a QB1.
Make MTSU vs. Missouri State Picks on PrizePicks
This game has all the makings of a grinder. Missouri State’s defense is quietly improving, while Middle Tennessee’s offense remains one of the most inefficient units in the conference. If the Bears can avoid costly turnovers, they have a real chance to steal a road win.
Middle Tennessee’s front seven is the X-factor — if it controls the run game, Bailey may be forced into mistakes. But if Missouri State’s ground attack travels, the Bears’ defense could carry them to their first CUSA victory.
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