The Citrus Bowl is certainly not the expectation the Texas Longhorns had for themselves coming into the 2025 college football season.
Ranked #1 in the preseason AP Top 25 Poll, they will get a chance at salvaging something from the season with a victory over Michigan, coming in as 5.5-point favorites on New Year's Eve.
Outside of the CFP, the Citrus Bowl is the bowl game that features the highest-ranked teams: No. 14 Michigan vs. No. 18 Texas, kicking off at 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday from Orlando, Fla., live on ABC.
Additionally, this game features two of the most promising young quarterbacks in college football, with Michigan QB Bryce Underwood facing Texas QB Arch Manning.
Below, we'll break down our Michigan vs. Texas prediction for the Citrus Bowl, including a pick on the spread for PrizePicks Team Picks — where you can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders to earn real money in 30+ states!
Michigan vs. Texas Over/Under, Spread for Citrus Bowl
Texas opened as 4.5-point favorites vs. Michigan. Since then, they have moved to 6.5-point favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks.
As the current favorites, Texas returns a 1.44x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright. Michigan is the underdog with a 3.12x payout if they win straight up.
The total opened at 46.5 and has since risen to 49.5, largely due to quality opt-outs, which we'll cover below.
- Spread: Texas Longhorns -6.5 (2x payout)
- Over/Under: 49.5 (2x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Michigan 2.63x | Texas 1.44x
Team Picks payouts are live as of publishing and are subject to change.
Michigan vs. Texas Opt-Outs, Injuries, and Transfers
As with most bowl games, there are a ton of moving parts as to who is actually playing between opt-outs, transfers, and injuries. What we do know is that Texas is hit far harder than Michigan in terms of these metrics.
Michigan has only three confirmed opt-outs: EDGE Derrick Moore, LB Jaishawn Barham, and LG Giovanni El-Hadi. They do have injuries, as interim HC Biff Poggi claims that the number of players who will not play “is probably more like 12 to 15 in actuality.”
Texas, on the other hand, is showing up with almost an entirely different roster. Nine Longhorn starters will not play in the Citrus Bowl.
Reports have as many as 35 players who will be missing the Citrus Bowl, including seven of the top 11 players in snap counts on defense this year. Offensively, their main missing pieces are their top three running backs in Quintrevion Wisner (412 snaps), CJ Baxter (161 snaps), and Jerrick Gibson (74 snaps).
Michigan vs. Texas Prediction on Spread for Citrus Bowl
Below, we’ll give you a Michigan vs. Texas pick on the over/under for PrizePicks Team Picks in the Citrus Bowl. Use PrizePicks to make NFL picks and earn money if you’re right.
- As mentioned above, Michigan enters this matchup with the far more complete roster (12-15 missing players vs. Texas’ 35).
- Michigan is 4-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last four neutral-site games.
- Texas is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.
- Texas is 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games as a favorite of 3.5-10 points.
- Michigan’s primary run concept has been inside zone with QB Bryce Underwood. Texas has posted just a 43% Success Rate defending that concept.
- Both teams run slow-paced offenses, which could lead to fewer possessions for both teams.
- Michigan runs just 62 plays per game (102nd nationally) while Texas runs 63 plays per game (100th).
- Michigan averages 27.5 seconds per play (90th nationally) while Texas averages 25.7 seconds per play (55th).
- Texas is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Make College Football Picks Today on PrizePicks
The Michigan vs. Texas highlights an awesome week of bowl games and serves as a tasty appetizer to the CFP Quarterfinal matchup between Miami and Ohio State in the Rose Bowl tonight.
The Texas Longhorns will be looking to end a disappointing season on a high note and look to carry over some momentum from the Citrus Bowl into a more positive 2026 season. Michigan will be excited to get another look at their freshman phenom QB Bryce Underwood in another pressure-packed environment.
In the Michigan vs. Texas game and during the Playoff, you can make college football picks on the winners, spreads, and over/unders on PrizePicks Team Picks. Just pick your side, lock in your pick, and earn money if you're right — now in 30 states, including Florida!
Keep it locked in here with PrizePicks and the Playbook for continued college football picks, predictions, and news all season long.
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