With each passing NCAA Tournament game, the stakes rise even higher. An action-packed matchup headlines the late portion of the slate on Friday night, as No. 3 Michigan State clashes with No. 2 UConn.
The 9:45 p.m. ET bout on CBS sees the Spartans look to pull off a slight upset as 1.5-point underdogs. Which team will advance from the Round of 16 to the Regional Finals?
Below, we’ll break down our Michigan State vs. UConn prediction and picks for Friday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Michigan State vs. UConn Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
After winning 30 games and reaching the Regional Finals a year ago, Michigan State is eyeing a return in 2026. Head coach Tom Izzo’s crew is 27-7 to this point, getting out to a scorching 19-2 start before dropping three of its next four.
Since the Spartans’ worst loss of the season, a 92-71 shortcoming vs. Wisconsin on February 13, they’re 7-2. Those wins include a 25-point triumph in the first round of the NCAA Tournament over North Dakota State and an eight-point victory over Louisville thereafter.
UConn, meanwhile, has bounced back from a disappointing 24-11 campaign under head coach Dan Hurley. The Huskies have looked much more like themselves this year, owning a 31-5 record entering Friday’s play.
Connecticut dispatched Furman 82-71 in the first round, then secured an even broader win with a 73-57 statement vs. UCLA last Sunday.
Michigan State and UConn have met eight times dating back to 1949-50, with the series split 4-4. The Spartans own a +3.1 average scoring margin in those games.
Michigan State vs. UConn Spread, Over/Under
Michigan State enters Friday’s game as 1.5-point underdogs, returning a 2.04x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
UConn is a favorite with a 1.75x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: UConn Huskies -1.5 (1.85x payout)
- Over/Under: 133.5 (1.78x payout)
- Game Winner Payout: Spartans 2.04x | Huskies 1.75x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Michigan State vs. UConn Prediction on Spread – 3/27/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Michigan State vs. UConn prediction on spread for Friday, March 27 on PrizePicks.
- On the year, UConn is just 14-22 against the spread as a favorite. On the flip side, Michigan State is a solid 3-2-1 ATS when serving as the underdog.
- According to KenPom, the Spartans (+29.00) are one spot ahead of the Huskies (+28.38) at ninth in overall net rating. They hold a seven-place advantage in offensive rating and a two-place edge in defensive rating.
- Both of these squads can hold their own defensively. Per Bart Torvik, UConn’s 95.4 adjusted defensive efficiency and MSU’s 96.2 mark are both top-15 nationally.
- Michigan State is a respectable 42nd in points per shot on offense (1.163) and 51st on the other end of the floor at 1.046.
- The free throw battle could swing this game if it’s a close one. UConn is 303rd in offensive free throw rate, and Michigan State is 61st in FT rate allowed.
Michigan State vs. UConn Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/27/26
Here are three top Michigan State vs. UConn picks to target for Friday, March 27 on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by G Jeremy Fears Jr., C Tarris Reed Jr., and F Alex Karaban.
Michigan State G Jeremy Fears Jr. vs. UConn Projection: 24.5 Pts + Asts
- On the season, Fears puts up an average of 24.7 points and assists. That figure is 28.3 in his last six outings.
- Since the turn of the calendar to January, the veteran guard is posting 17.6 PPG while making 44.3% of his shots from the field and 89.7% from the free throw line.
- Fears’ 53.2% assist rate leads Division I players, and his 46.1% career mark is an all-time record.
- UConn’s defense ranks 104th in assists allowed per made field goal at 0.496.
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UConn C Tarris Reed Jr. vs. Michigan State Projection: 23.5 Pts + Rebs
- In his senior campaign, Reed averages 23.1 points and rebounds per game. In six games this month, however, that number is way up to 29.2.
- Across two NCAA Tournament contests, the big man has gone for 58 (31 points, 27 rebounds) and 23 (10 points, 13 rebounds) points and boards.
- Reed’s 20.0% total rebounding rate leads the Big East, and his 9.0% block rate generates additional opportunities to be credited with a rebound.
- While Michigan State is first in rebound rate allowed at just 22.5%, that ranking falls to 21st at 25.1% against Quad 1 teams.
UConn F Alex Karaban vs. Michigan State Projection: 20.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- In his fourth year with the Huskies, Karaban puts up 20.8 combined points, rebounds, and assists.
- Karaban is a premier 3-point shooter, canning 39.4% of his tries from deep on 4.9 attempts per game.
- Per Bart Torvik, Karaban’s 6.5% offensive rebound rate is seventh among all Big East players standing 6-foot-8 or shorter.
- The Spartans surrender 13.2 assists each time out, sitting 149th in the country.
Make Michigan State vs. UConn Picks on PrizePicks
Michigan State vs. UConn picks for Friday’s NCAA Tournament game are just one of many ways hoops fans can get in on the daily college basketball action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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