Two teams owning 12-4 records in Big Ten play meet for a crucial showdown in Thursday’s lone top 25 matchup.
The 13th-ranked Michigan State Spartans (22-5) are fresh off a pair of home victories over UCLA and Ohio State. The eighth-ranked Purdue Boilermakers (22-5), meanwhile, bounced back from a 91-80 home loss to Michigan to rout rival Indiana 93-64.
Let’s look at a Michigan State vs. Purdue prediction and picks for Thursday’s tussle at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana, tipping off at 8:00 p.m. ET on Peacock. Make your CBB picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Michigan State vs. Purdue Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Purdue dominated this series with five consecutive victories from 2022 through 2024.
The Spartans ended that cold streak last February, beating the Boilermakers 75-66 as three-point home favorites.
Head coach Tom Izzo’s MSU squad hasn’t won in West Lafayette since 2014, reaching the Elite Eight that March.
Michigan State vs. Purdue Spread, Over/Under
The Boilermakers enter this matchup as 6.5-point favorites, returning a 1.26x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Spartans are road underdogs with a 3.44x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Spread: Purdue Boilermakers -6.5
- Over/Under: 140.5
- Game Winner Payout: Michigan State 3.44x | Purdue 1.26x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Michigan State vs. Purdue Prediction on Spread
Here are some key stats to know before locking in your Michigan State vs. Purdue prediction on spread for Thursday, February 26 on PrizePicks.
- Michigan State is 2-2 against the spread (ATS) in four underdog opportunities. The Spartans beat Kentucky in November but lost the last three outright.
- MSU looks to snap a two-game road losing streak following defeats at Wisconsin (92-71) and Minnesota (76-73).
- The Boilermakers are 6-2 at home in conference play, covering the spread twice.
- Purdue ranks second in the country in offensive efficiency and is third in that category in Big Ten action.
- The Boilermakers shot a season-high 74.5% on effective field goal percentage in last Friday’s rout of Indiana.
- The Spartans are second in Big Ten play in defensive efficiency, second in defensive 2-point percentage (48.1%), and third in defensive 3-point percentage (30.8%).
- Each of Michigan State’s last three opponents converted at least 10 3-pointers away from East Lansing.
- The Spartans own the highest turnover rate (18.6%) in Big Ten action, while the Boilermakers commit the second-fewest turnovers (12.4%).
Michigan State vs. Purdue Picks for PrizePicks Today: 2/26/26
Here are three top Michigan State vs. Purdue picks to target on Thursday, February 26. Key PrizePicks player projections are headlined by Purdue G Brayden Smith, Michigan State G Jeremy Fears Jr., and Boilermakers F Trey Kaufman-Renn.
Purdue G Brayden Smith vs. Michigan State Projection: 16.5 Points
- The senior finished below this projection in four of the last five games.
- Smith’s top performance in this stretch came in a loss to Michigan, scoring 20 points despite 4-of-13 shooting from the floor.
- In the past five outings, the Indiana native shot 20-of-55 from the field at a 36.3% clip.
- In last season’s loss to the Spartans, Smith posted 17 points on 7-of-13 shooting.
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Michigan State G Jeremy Fears Jr. vs. Purdue Projection: 8 Assists
- Fears leads the country in assists per game, dishing an average of 9.2 dimes.
- The sophomore handed out at least 10 assists in four consecutive games before getting held to 8 helpers against Ohio State.
- In six of the past eight games, Fears compiled at least nine assists, including each of the last three road contests.
- UCLA G Donovan Dent was the last player to log at least 9 assists against Purdue, posting 13 on January 20.
Purdue F Trey Kaufman-Renn vs. Michigan State Projection: 22.5 Pts + Rebs
- The senior’s scoring average has dropped from 20.1 PPG last season to 13.3 PPG this season.
- TKR's rebounding numbers improved, ranking third in the Big Ten by pulling down 9 boards a game.
- Kaufman-Renn finished with More than this projection in four straight games, averaging 16.2 PPG and 12.2 RPG.
- Last season, he scored 24 points and grabbed 3 boards in a loss to MSU.
Make #13 Michigan State vs. #8 Purdue Picks on PrizePicks
The winner of tonight’s matchup pulls into a second-place tie with Illinois and Nebraska at 13-4 in the Big Ten. Will the Spartans beat the Boilermakers for a second straight season?
You can make your Michigan State vs. Purdue picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 34 states.
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