The Big Ten leads Thursday’s college basketball slate, and the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (27-2) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (20-9) are under the spotlight on Peacock at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Michigan secured the Big Ten regular-season title with a win over Illinois on February 27. Iowa’s NCAA Tournament seeding has slid due to a 2-4 record over its last six games.
Let’s make a Michigan vs. Iowa prediction and picks, also circling player projections to consider on PrizePicks. Which Big Ten squad can add to its resume before the postseason?
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Michigan vs. Iowa Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
These two programs have yet to meet this season, but Iowa is 3-2 outright and 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last five matchups. This collision has featured plenty of high-scoring games, with the over being 7-3 in the last 10 clashes.
Both teams are 2-2 ATS over the past four games, and the under is 4-1 for each squad in the last five contests.
Michigan vs. Iowa Spread, Over/Under
Bart Torvik ranks Michigan second and Iowa 25th in efficiency, leading to tonight’s 8.5-point spread in favor of the Wolverines on PrizePicks Team Picks.
In line with the recent under trend, Thursday’s over/under is only 145.5 on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines -8.5
- Over/Under: 145.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Michigan 1.2x | Iowa 4.54x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Michigan vs. Iowa Prediction on Over/Under
For Bart Torvik’s adjusted tempo, Michigan is in the 96th percentile for quickest pace, while Iowa ranks in the 98th percentile for slowest. The Wolverines launch 61.1 field goal attempts per game (85th percentile), smashing the Hawkeyes’ 53.8 (sixth percentile).
Whoever controls the pace could also determine the over/under. UM ranks in the 95th and 87th percentiles for offensive and defensive rebounding percentages, surpassing Iowa in the 56th and 76th percentiles, respectively.
Furthermore, the Wolverines are in the 99th and 84th percentiles for shot distributions of dunks and close-2s. The Hawkeyes’ paint defense lacks there, sitting in the 33rd and 67th percentiles under each umbrella.
Iowa, meanwhile, leans on triples with a 35.5% 3-point percentage and a 33.3% shot distribution from beyond the arc. Perimeter defense could be Michigan’s fatal flaw, ranking in the 25th percentile of 3-point shot distribution allowed.
Michigan vs. Iowa Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/5/26
Here are the top Michigan vs. Iowa picks to consider for Thursday, March 5 on PrizePicks. Michigan C Aday Mara and Iowa G Bennett Stirtz are names to watch.
Michigan C Aday Mara vs. Iowa Projection: 11.5 Points
- Iowa F Cooper Koch’s 0.92 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR) is the worst mark in the starting lineup, per EvanMiya, which could mean a favorable matchup for Mara.
- The 7-foot-3 Mara has a height advantage, as Iowa F Cam Manyawu (6’9”), F Alvaro Folgueiras (6’10”), and Koch (6’8”) all stand below 7’0”.
- Mara averages 11.4 points per game (PPG) and has totaled 13.4 PPG in his last seven games.
- The junior big man lives around the rim, owning only 7 3-point attempts on the season.
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Iowa G Bennett Stirtz vs. Michigan Projection: 2.5 3-PT Made
- Stirtz carries the Iowa offense, posting 20.5 PPG and a 26.0% usage rate.
- The senior guard’s 6.3 attempted 3-pointers per game also leads the Hawkeyes, with the second-highest mark being 4.0.
- He’s increased his average to 23.0 PPG in his past seven appearances, averaging 2.9 made treys per game in the split.
- Led by an efficient 39.3% 3-point percentage, Stirtz may be able to take advantage of Michigan’s leaky perimeter defense.
Make #3 Michigan vs. Iowa Picks on PrizePicks
Thursday night brings a quadrant 1 opportunity for both teams — defined by a top-30 team at home, a top-50 team on a neutral site, or a top-75 team on the road. Will Michigan add to its pursuit of the No. 1 overall seed for the NCAA Tournament, or can Iowa grab a major resume-booster?
Make your Michigan vs. Iowa picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
