Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction, Picks: Can Sabrina Ionescu Find Her Groove?

Only one WNBA team has managed a road win here in the 2025 playoffs: The defending champion New York Liberty outlasted the Phoenix Mercury in overtime on Sunday to grab a 1-0 lead in their best-of-three series.

The Liberty head back to the Barclays Center in Brooklyn on Wednesday, seeking a return trip to the WNBA semifinals.

Let’s take a look at tonight’s Mercury vs. Liberty prediction, where we’ll give you three free WNBA picks for Wednesday, September 17, including PrizePicks WNBA Picks to target for tonight. 

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Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction, Picks

Here are three of the top WNBA DFS picks for Wednesday, September 17, on PrizePicks.

• Liberty G Sabrina Ionescu – 18.5 Points
• Mercury G Kahleah Copper – 16.5 Points
• Mercury F Alyssa Thomas – 33.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts

Liberty G Sabrina Ionescu – 18.5 Points

• Ionescu logged a game-high 43 minutes in Sunday’s thriller, but scored just 16 points on 6-of-18 shooting. She converted 1 free throw and hit 3-of-12 attempts from long distance.
• The top pick of the 2020 draft has been held to 18 or less points in 12 consecutive games.
• The last time Ionescu topped the 19-point mark came back on August 3 at Connecticut, when she torched the Sun for 36 points.
• With the exception of a 29-point outburst on July 25, Ionescu has shot 11-of-43 from the floor in the three other games this season against Phoenix.
• Ionescu last scored more than 19 points at home on July 26 against the Sparks, dropping 30 points.

Mercury G Kahleah Copper – 16.5 Points

• Copper managed 15 points in Game 1 in spite of shooting 5-of-13 from the floor and misfiring on all 4 attempts from three-point range.
• The former Rutgers standout has finished with fewer than 16 points in each of the last three games.
• Copper posted 12 and 14 points in the first two meetings with the Liberty before racking up 22 points in a home blowout of New York on August 30.
• Copper knocked down 37.7% of her three-point attempts in the regular season. The Liberty rank second in the league in defensive three-point shooting at home, yielding 29.9% from long range. 
• In eight of her last 10 road games, Copper has topped the 17-point mark, including three performances of at least 22 points.

Mercury F Alyssa Thomas – 33.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts

• Thomas is the nearest thing to a triple-double machine in the league, averaging 15.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game.
• The 11th-year veteran scored 14 points, grabbed 9 boards, and dished out 8 dimes in the overtime loss to the Liberty.
• Thomas produced 8 triple-doubles during the season and eclipsed a total of 34 points, rebounds, and assists six times.
• In three of the five matchups with New York, Thomas put together at least 40 points, rebounds, and assists.
• Since August 1, Thomas has finished below this PrizePicks PRA projection in six of nine road games.

Make Picks on WNBA on PrizePicks

New York tries to take the next step towards another WNBA championship with a win over Phoenix tonight sending them to the semifinals, so there’s never been a better time to add to the excitement of every WNBA moment than with PrizePicks.

There are a wide variety of player stat projections on the WNBA board, so you can build your Lineup however you’d like — with no salary or positional restrictions. Just pick at least two player stat projections to build your Lineup on PrizePicks.

Check out the Playbook throughout the remainder of the WNBA season for more analysis for your PrizePicks and WNBA DFS Lineups.