LSU vs. Houston Prediction — Texas Bowl: Conner Weigman Caps Off Magical Season?

Houston QB Conner Weigman throws a pass in an CFB game.
AP Photo/Michael Wyke

LSU, off a disappointing season, and Houston, after a surprise season, meet in the Texas Bowl in Houston, the season finale for both teams. 

The tilt kicks off Saturday at 9:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. 

LSU (7-5) took its first four games of the season, including a road win at No. 4 Clemson. The Tigers then lost four of their next five games, costing Head Coach Brian Kelly his job, and stumbled to a 7-5 regular season record, their most losses since 2021.

Following the regular season, LSU hired Lane Kiffin as its next head coach, but interim head coach Frank Wilson will man the sidelines this evening.

Houston (9-3) won seven of their first eight games, with the lone loss coming to eventual Big 12 Champion Texas Tech.

Below, we'll break down our LSU-Houston prediction and Texas Bowl picks, and college football bowl picks on PrizePicks real money CFB game. 

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LSU vs. Houston Prediction — Texas Bowl

The Tigers and Cougars meet for the fourth time in both schools' history, with LSU winning two of the previous three. The teams last met in September of 2000, with LSU winning, 28-13 in Baton Rouge.  

LSU vs. Houston Over/Under, Spread

The Big 12’s Houston Cougars enter the Texas Bowl in their home city as 2.5-point favorites, returning a 1.66x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.

The SEC’s LSU Tigers are the underdog, with a 2.08x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

  • Spread: Houston -2.5
  • Total: 41.5
  • Game Winner Payout: Houston 1.66x | LSU 2.08x

LSU vs. Houston Prediction on Spread

LSU Tigers Preview

  • LSU is 4-8 against the spread this season, failing to cover in five of their last six. 
  • The Tigers have been an underdog in six previous games this season, covering in two of them, with one outright win (at Clemson)
  • The team won three straight bowl games, and of the last four bowl games (3-1), two of them were Texas Bowls. (They won last year vs. Baylor; and lost after 2021 season vs. Kansas State). 
  • LSU’s has struggled on offense this campaign, ranking 107th in the country, averaging 21.8 points per game, and landing at 109th in total offense at 337.2 yards per game.
  • On the other side of the gridiron, the Tigers are 14th in the country, allowing 18.33 points per game, putting them 25th in total defense. 

Houston Cougars Preview

  • Houston is 8-4 against the spread this season, third-best among Big 12 teams. 
  • The Cougars have been favored six previous times this season, covering in four and winning outright in five. 
  • Houston is 61st in the country, averaging 28.3 points per game and 64th in the country in total offense at 390.9 yards per game. 
  • The Cougars defense comes in at 41st in the nation and sixth in the Big 12, at 21.8 points per game. 

LSU vs. Houston Prediction for PrizePicks

Ranked 21st, Houston enters the bowl game as a slight favorite over LSU. The Cougars have covered in twice as many games as the Tigers this season and roll into the game as winners in five of their last seven.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have struggled all season on offense and are in between firing one coach and the 2026 debut of Lane Kiffin after this season ends. 

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Make LSU vs. Houston Predictions on PrizePicks

Will LSU end its disappointing season on a high note with a win in the Texas Bowl for the second straight year? Or will Houston get to 10 wins for the first time since 2021?

There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the CFB board, so you can make predictions on whatever you'd like — from yards to field goals. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.

It's the simplest way to get real-money action on CFB action. 

Stay locked in on Playbook all the way through the College Football Playoff with CFB predictions, picks, and news.


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about the author

David Bearman spent 18 years with ESPN in their Stats & Information Department and overseeing their betting content. From 2023-25, he served as Chief Content Officer of Pro Football Network, overseeing all content, including coverage of Super Bowls 58 and 59. He is also the Founder of Betting with Bearman, a 3x a week betting newsletter and weekly podcast on Bleav Podcast Network.

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