In the tail-end of an NBC doubleheader, the Los Angeles Lakers (25-16) face the Denver Nuggets (29-14), with a 10:00 p.m. ET top.
The two are trending in opposite directions, as the Lakers are 2-5 over the previous seven games, while the Nuggets have taken six of their last eight. Denver is battling a long list of injuries, giving L.A. a potential advantage on Tuesday night.
Check out our Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction and spread on PrizePicks.
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Lakers vs. Nuggets Prediction and Spread
- The Western Conference foes have yet to meet this season, but split the 2024-25 campaign’s four matchups.
- Los Angeles had an advantage against the spread (ATS), boasting a 3-1 record when facing Denver.
- The over has been a recent trend for both squads, going 4-1 in the Lake Show’s last five and 3-1 for the Nuggets’ previous four.
- Denver carries a 5-3 ATS record over the last eight, compared to Los Angeles’ 2-5 record from the past seven.
Lakers vs. Nuggets Over/Under, Spread
With the Nuggets battling a thin roster, the Lakers are 2.5-point favorites on the road, returning a 1.66x payout with a win.
- Spread: Los Angeles Lakers -2.5
- Over/Under: 228.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Lakers 1.66x | Nuggets 2.12x
Team picks data is live as of publishing and is subject to change.
Lakers vs. Nuggets Injury Report
Let’s have a look at the full Lakers vs. Nuggets injury report for Tuesday’s primetime matchup, via NBA.com.
Lakers Injury Report
- G Austin Reaves (calf) - OUT
Nuggets Injury Report
- F Cameron Johnson (knee) - OUT
- C Nikola Jokic (knee) - OUT
- C Jonas Valanciunas (calf) - OUT
- G Christian Braun (ankle) - OUT
- F Aaron Gordon (hamstring) - Probable
- G Tim Hardaway Jr. (knee) - Probable
- G Jamal Murray (illness/knee) - Probable
Lakers vs. Nuggets Prediction on Total
Tonight’s 228.5 total would usually point to a clear over due to the Nuggets’ 121.7 (PPG) points per game (first) and 58.0% effective field goal percentage (first). However, Denver will be without at least three starters, including Nuggets C Nikola Jokic (29.6 PPG).
According to Dunks & Threes, Denver ranks 15th in shot distribution around the rim and 21st from beyond the arc. The Lakers are solid at limiting opponents’ 3-point volume, allowing 36.7 attempts from distance (14th). Without Jokic in the lineup, Nuggets G Jamal Murray (25.9 PPG) and G Tim Hardaway Jr. (14.0 PPG) are two of the rotation’s top three scorers and heavily lean on triples with 7.6 and 7.0 shots per contest.
Los Angeles’ offense also sports mediocre shot distributions, ranking 24th around the rim and 18th from deep. Denver sits 11th in shot distribution around the rim allowed while holding the opposition to a 35.2% 3-point percentage (10th).
Ultimately, Tuesday’s could give us a low-scoring affair due to its speed...or lack thereof. NBA Advanced Stats ranks the Nuggets with the eighth-slowest pace, while the Lakers hold the 11th-lowest mark. This leads to Denver attempting 87.2 shots per game (26th) and L.A. recording 83.7 (29th).
Lakers vs. Nuggets NBA Picks, Stats for PrizePicks Today
Forwards attacking the painted area could be tonight's story, drawing our attention to Nuggets F Aaron Gordon and Lakers F LeBron James for projections on PrizePicks.
Nuggets F Aaron Gordon vs. Lakers Projection: 18.5 Points
- According to FantasyLabs, Gordon’s 24.1% usage rate increases to 25.5% when Jokic is off the court.
- Since The Joker’s absence began on December 31, Gordo has posted 12.7 field goal attempts per game compared to 12.2 on the season.
- Among the Nuggets’ top three scorers for tonight, Gordon carries the lowest 3-point volume, with 4.7 attempted triples per contest. He takes 42.4% of his shots within 10 feet of the basket.
- The Lakers cede 50.9 points in the paint per game (17th) and a 57.2% 2-point percentage (27th).
- Gordon hit 22+ points in two of the past four games.
- The Arizona produc has logged 31.0 minutes per contest over the last four (28.1 on the season).
Lakers F LeBron James vs. Nuggets Projection: 22.5 Points
- Denver is rolling out a small-ball lineup, as the 6’8” Gordon is manning the center spot. Their interior D is already suspect, as they allow 51.3 points in the paint per game (18th) and a 55.4% 2-point percentage (22nd).
- After posting 3-point percentages of 41.0% and 37.6% in the last two campaigns, LeBron’s efficiency has fallen to 32.8% this season. He’s making only 1.6 triples per game, meaning The King could look to attack the paint.
- The 21-time All-Star takes 50.1% of his field goal attempts within 10 feet of the basket.
- Nuggets F Peyton Watson will likely be LeBron’s primary defender, and he sports a concerning 120.0 defensive rating.
- James posted 26.6 PPG in January compared to 22.6 for the season. He’s reached 23 points in seven of nine appearances this month.
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Make Lakers vs. Nuggets NBA Picks on PrizePicks
Injuries could keep the league’s most prolific offense in check tonight. Paired with the Lakers touting mediocre shot distributions, is Tuesday’s total bound for an under?
Make your Lakers vs. Nuggets picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players — including Aaron Gordon and LeBron James — predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 30 states.
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