The 2026 SEC Tournament rolls on this week, and Thursday presents some higher-profile matchups for fans to enjoy. Kicking things off at 12:30 p.m. on SEC Network is a clash between the Kentucky Wildcats and the Missouri Tigers.
With just a single loss being the difference between these two teams this season, UK and Mizzou could be one of Thursday’s premier bouts on the hardwood. Kentucky is favored by 3.5 points.
Below, we’ll break down our Kentucky vs. Missouri prediction on spread for Thursday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Kentucky vs. Missouri Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Under head coach Mark Pope, Kentucky has failed to take a step forward this season. The Wildcats are 20-12 overall, including a 10-8 conference mark for the second consecutive campaign.
Since getting to 17-7 with a 74-71 triumph over Tennessee on February 7, UK is just 3-5. With that said, the program did win its first-round SEC Tournament battle against LSU, 87-82.
Missouri, meanwhile, went 8-24 in 2023-24 but has won at least 20 games in back-to-back seasons. Head coach Dennis Gates’ crew has the same conference record as Pope’s, boasting one fewer loss overall. The Tigers are 3-3 in their last six contests.
In 20 meetings between the teams since 1960, Kentucky owns a commanding 16-4 series lead. Missouri secured a 73-68 victory back on January 7 thanks to F Mark Mitchell and G Jayden Stone each going for 20+ points.
Kentucky vs. Missouri Spread, Over/Under
Kentucky enters Thursday’s game as 3.5-point favorites, returning a 1.58x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Missouri is an underdog with a 2.27x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Kentucky Wildcats -3.5
- Over/Under: 149.5
- Game Winner Payout: Wildcats 1.58x | Tigers 2.27x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Kentucky vs. Missouri Prediction on Spread – 3/12/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Kentucky vs. Missouri prediction on spread for Thursday, March 12 on PrizePicks.
- Gates’ crew has performed well against the spread in the underdog role this year, posting a 7-4 record. Pope’s group is just 9-11 ATS as favorites.
- A tried and true characteristic, Kentucky is battle-tested. Per KenPom, where they rank 27th in net rating compared to Missouri at 50th, they’re in the top 10 in strength of schedule net and offensive rating.
- The Wildcats are a balanced and efficient team, sitting 82nd in points per shot on offense (1.139) and 73rd on defense (1.061). Missouri generates quality looks on offense (1.174, 34th) but slips on the other end (1.098, 174th).
- Against top-50 programs, UK owns a 51.8% defensive effective field goal clip, ranking 68th. Mizzou’s 54.8% eFG% mark is solid, albeit 131st nationally.
- Could the 3-point shot be the difference here? Kentucky is 67th in stopping that shot (31.9%), whereas Missouri struggles, sitting 338th.
- The Tigers could have the two most impactful players, but the Wildcats have depth. Per Bart Torvik, five different UK players have a points over replacement per adjusted game of at least 2.5.
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Make Kentucky vs. Missouri Picks on PrizePicks
As the SEC Tournament rolls on, Kentucky vs. Missouri picks are just one of many ways hoops fans can get in on the daily college basketball action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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