The NCAA Tournament's second round continues on Sunday with Round of 16 berths on the line. No. 7 seed Kentucky survived in overtime vs. No. 10 seed Santa Clara and now takes on No. 2 seed Iowa State in a Midwest regional matchup in St. Louis.
The winner of this 2:45 ET contest on CBS advances to Chicago to meet the winner of No. 6 Tennessee and No. 3 Virginia. The Cyclones are favored by 4.5 points.
Below, we’ll break down our Kentucky vs. Iowa State prediction and picks for Sunday’s afternoon game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Kentucky vs. Iowa State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Kentucky’s Otega Owah hit a buzzer-beater from just inside half-court to force overtime on Friday, when the Wildcats outlasted Santa Clara in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
UK rebounded from an 0-2 start in SEC play to win eight of nine games in the middle of the season, including wins over ranked Tennessee and Arkansas. The Wildcats finished with losses in five of the final seven regular-season games before winning two games in the SEC Tournament.
Kentucky is looking for its 46th trip to the Round of 16, extending its own record.
Iowa State sent No. 15 Tennessee State packing with a 108-74 victory in Friday’s first round. The Cyclones finished third in the Big 12, behind two of the top five teams in the nation in Arizona and Houston.
Iowa State completed non-conference play undefeated, and five of the Cyclones' seven losses were to ranked teams. They have wins over St. John’s (a 5-seed), Purdue (2-seed), Houston (2-seed), and Kansas (4-seed).
The Cyclones are looking to return to the Round of 16 for the second time in three years. Star forward Joshua Jefferson appears doubtful to play after suffering an ankle injury early in the first-round game.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State Spread, Over/Under
Iowa State enters Saturday’s NCAA Tournament second-round game as 4.5-point favorites, with a 1.42 payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
Kentucky is the underdog, with a 2.77x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Iowa State -4.5 (1.75x payout)
- Over/Under: 146.5 (2x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Iowa State 1.42x | Kentucky 2.27x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Kentucky vs. Iowa State Prediction on Spread – 3/22/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your NCAA Tournament Kentucky vs. Iowa State prediction on the spread for Sunday, March 22 on PrizePicks.
- Kentucky is 18-17 against the spread, including covers in each of the last three games.
- The Wildcats were 5-6 ATS as an underdog. As an underdog of fewer than six points, Kentucky is 1-4 ATS.
- Per KenPom, Kentucky is rated 28th in the country overall and has an offensive rating of 120.8 (37th) and a defensive rating of 99.1 (28th).
- Iowa State is 21-13-1 ATS, second-best in the Big 12, including covers in each of the last five games. The Cyclones were also 19-12-1 ATS as favorites.
- Iowa State is rated seventh in the country on KenPom, also owning an offensive rating of 124.2 (17th) and a defensive rating of 91.4 (fifth).
- The Cyclones' defense has held opponents to 65.4 PPG, 13th-best nationally.
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Make Kentucky vs. Iowa State Picks on PrizePicks
Can Kentucky pull off the upset and advance to another Round of 16, or will Iowa State live up to its expectations and move one step closer to a title?
You can make your Kentucky vs. Iowa State picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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