Kent State (3-5) travels to Muncie for a Wednesday night MAC showdown against Ball State (3-5) at Scheumann Stadium.
Both teams enter at 2-2 in conference play and are fighting to stay in the MAC bowl picture. Kent State snapped a three-game skid with a 24-21 win over Bowling Green, while Ball State fell 21-7 to Northern Illinois.
Below, we’ll break down our Kent State vs. Ball State prediction and Wednesday NCAAF pick, also highlighting the top PrizePicks player projection targets for this Wednesday night showdown set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Kent State vs. Ball State Prediction, Preview: Wednesday, Nov. 5
This Wednesday MAC matchup sets up to be a low-scoring fight, with both defenses holding the edge on paper, despite the most recent game finishing with a score of 37-35 in 2024. Ball State has actually won each of the last three matchups between these teams.
Here’s a closer look at our Kent State vs. Ball State prediction and matchup breakdown for Wednesday night’s college football MACtion showdown.
Kent State Preview vs. Ball State
The Golden Flashes might finally be finding rhythm after last week’s narrow win over Bowling Green. Trailing 21-3 in the third quarter, the offense’s ability to flip the switch and put up points in a hurry was an encouraging sign that it could keep things rolling into Wednesday’s matchup.
QB Dru DeShields continues to provide stability under center — throwing for 1,109 yards and 11 TDs with just 2 INTs on the year. The offense averages 263.0 yards per game (133rd nationally) and 18.3 points per game (117th), but has shown better efficiency in recent weeks.
Kent State’s offensive success rate sits at 34.1% (133rd), while its rushing attack remains a concern at just 86.6 yards per game (132nd). RB Gavin Garcia has flashed in spurts, averaging 3.6 yards per carry with 1 TD.
RB/WR Cade Wolford has also carved out a prominent role despite uncertainty about his true position, leading the team in receiving yards (395) and 6 TDs on 15 receptions.
Kent State’s main issue for the dismal record has stemmed from the defensive side, allowing 485.7 yards per game (134th).
To avoid an early deficit once again, the Flashes may need to lean on DeShields’ arm to sustain drives from the get-go, against a Ball State defense that allows 420.1 total yards per game (107th).
Ball State Preview vs. Kent State
The Cardinals return home looking to rebound after their offense sputtered in a 21-7 loss at Northern Illinois.
QB Kiael Kelly has shown flashes, but inconsistency remains. He’s thrown for 982 yards with 6 TDs and 5 INTs while completing 57.1% of his passes.
Ball State’s offense ranks 135th nationally in total offense (252.7 yards per game) and 131st in scoring (13.9 points per game). The rushing attack, led by Qua Ashley, has been the lone bright spot. He’s top-10 in MAC rushing attempts (101) and rushing yards (513), with 4 TDs on the year.
WR Qian Magwood leads the team in receiving with 238 yards and 1 TD, but the passing game might continue to struggle against even a leaky Kent State secondary.
Defensively, Ball State’s unit has been opportunistic at times, ranking 10th nationally in fewest penalty yards per game (34.7), and allowing 29.9 points per game (96th). While those numbers might not always translate to victories, it’s encouraging given the lack of ball movement offensively this season.
The Cardinals’ defensive success rate (44.1%, 101st) is modest, but better than Kent State’s, giving them a decent opportunity at home if they can force turnovers and sustain drives through Ashley’s ground production.
Kent State vs. Ball State Best Picks for Wednesday MACtion
Here are the PrizePicks targets for Wednesday’s MAC matchup between Kent State vs. Ball State. Use PrizePicks to cash in on your college football picks all season long by picking More or Less on player stat projections
Kent State QB Dru DeShields Projection: 193.5 Passing Yards
- QB Dru DeShields has been a steady passer, by MAC standards, for the Golden Flashes — completing 60.0% of his passes against conference opponents, with an average of 7.9 yards per attempt.
- DeShields ranks 83rd in college football with a 0.19 expected points added per dropback; he faces a Ball State defense that ranks 90th in the same metric (0.10)
- Ball State’s secondary has allowed 225.4 passing yards per game (67th), and two out of its last three starting QB opponents have thrown for 240+ yards.
- Kent State’s rushing attack ranks near the bottom nationally, averaging a mere 2.6 yards per carry
- Meanwhile, DeShields has recorded 22+ pass attempts in two consecutive games for the first time all season.
- The downside for DeShields could be Kent State's own rushing attack. While it has clearly struggled thus far, it could flourish vs. one of the worst defensive fronts that it’s faced all year.
Ball State RB Qua Ashley Projection: 65.5 Rushing Yards
- RB Qua Ashley continues to be the engine of the Cardinals offense. He’s averaging 5.1 yards per carry and sits fifth on the team in total snaps (346), first in snaps on run plays (100), per PFF.
- Kent State’s defense has allowed 5.2 yards per carry, ranking 120th nationally, creating opportunities for high-volume rushers like Ashley to gain yardage.
- Ashley has 12+ carries in every game that Ball State has won outright or lost by one possession.
- Ball State’s rushing workload averages 37.6 carries per game, ranking 40th in FBS.
- Ashley averages 12.6 carries per game, and has remained heavily involved, regardless of the game script, save for a 42-0 blowout loss to Western Michigan.
Kent State WR Cade Wolford Projection: 44.5 Receiving Yards
- WR Cade Wolford leads Kent State with 395 receiving yards and 6 TDs on 15 receptions, including 3 receptions of 40+ yards this season, demonstrating his big-play capability within the Flashes’ vertical passing game.
- Ball State’s secondary allows 7.9 yards per pass attempt, reflecting vulnerability to chunk plays and situational opportunities for deep targets.
- Wolford averages 26.3 yards per reception, which ranks 29th in FBS.
- Wolford's 9.17 yards per target is top 100 in the nation, per Game on Paper
- He has been targeted largely on intermediate and vertical routes, and has become the primary aerial option for Kent State.
Make Kent State vs. Ball State Picks on PrizePicks
This Wednesday MACtion matchup shapes up as a grind — both offenses rank outside the top 120 in success rate and total offense, but each defense allows over 400 yards per game.
Ball State’s steadier rushing game and home-field advantage could make the difference in a potentially low-scoring contest.
With PrizePicks and the Playbook, you can cash in on Wednesday night MACtion college football picks by targeting players like Dru DeShields, Qua Ashley, and Cade Wolford.
Just pick your college football players, predict More or Less on their stat projections, and win real money if you’re right.
