The Sunflower Showdown kicks of in Lawrence, Kan., on Saturday afternoon, as the Kansas Jayhawks (4-3) welcome the Kansas State Wildcats (3-4) to Memorial Stadium.
The Jayhawks have dropped 16 consecutive meetings with the Wildcats dating back to 2009, including the past two losses coming by a combined 6 points.
Let’s dive into this Kansas State vs. Kansas prediction for this Big 12 battle that launches at 12:00 p.m. ET on TNT this Saturday.
Kansas State vs. Kansas Prediction, Pick
The Wildcats had high expectations coming into the season to win the Big 12. K-State fell short in the season opener in Dublin to Iowa State and owns a 2-2 record in conference play.
Kansas is trying to break this long skid to Kansas State, but the Jayhawks are also looking to rebound from an ugly 42-17 defeat at Texas Tech two weeks ago.
Kansas State Wildcats
- The Wildcats put up 343 yards in their 41-28 victory over TCU two weeks ago, but also benefited from a pair of defensive TDs.
- K-State ranks 78th in EPA/play from a defensive standpoint, a huge drop from 23rd in this category last season.
- The Wildcats have slipped from 43rd in offensive EPA/play in 2024 to 63rd this season.
- RB Dylan Edwards, who rushed for 166 yards in a 34-20 win over UCF on September 27, is sidelined with a foot injury.
Kansas Jayhawks
- The Jayhawks have excelled in EPA/pass, ranking 13th in the nation. KU is the second-best team in the Big 12 in this category, sitting behind Cincinnati, who ranks fourth nationally.
- The defense has seen its struggles, ranking 99th in EPA/play, while giving up at least 37 points three times.
- Kansas has scored 31 or more points in all four home games this season.
Kansas State vs. Kansas Prediction, Pick
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Kansas QB Jalon Daniels Projection: 231.5 Passing Yards
- Daniels ranks ninth at PFF in offense grade among QBs who have played at least nine games.
- The senior has eclipsed 235 passing yards in each of the past three games. His season-high came in a 37-34 home loss to Cincinnati, where he racked up 445 passing yards.
- In four career starts against K-State, Daniels has not thrown for more than 210 yards.
- K-State has given up more than 344 passing yards in each of the last two games to Baylor and TCU.
Kansas State QB Avery Johnson Projection: 210.5 Passing Yards
- Johnson has gone through a very inconsistent junior season. He has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in four games, but has posted a pair of 300+ yard passing performances.
- His best game came on the road at Baylor on October 4 in a 35-34 heartbreaking defeat. Johnson threw for a career-high 344 yards, marking his second career game of at least 300 passing yards.
- In last season’s 29-27 home victory over Kansas, Johnson put up 253 passing yards and led the Wildcats on a late drive for the game-winning field goal.
- The Jayhawks rank 83rd in the country in defensive EPA/pass, an improvement from 103rd last season.
Kansas State RB Joe Jackson Projection: 97.5 Rushing Yards
- The sophomore exploded for a career-high 110 rushing yards in the 41-28 victory over TCU two weeks ago.
- Prior to that performance, Jackson rushed for 203 yards in the previous five games combined.
- Kansas’ rushing defense currently ranks 89th in the country in EPA/play, moving up from 124th in 2024.
- The Jayhawks have given up more than 100 yards rushing to RBs in each of the last two games, including 263 yards to Texas Tech’s Cameron Dickey two weeks ago.
Make Picks on CFB on PrizePicks
The Sunflower Showdown is a huge yearly event. In this edition, the Jayhawks attempt to end their long losing skid to the Wildcats on the gridiron.
Ahead of the Kansas State vs. Kansas kickoff at 12:00 p.m. ET, it's time to lock in your CFB picks on PrizePicks to win real money. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions when you're right.
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