Kansas State vs. Arizona brings a battle between two Big 12 foes, yet it’ll still technically be a non-conference bout in Week 2. The Friday night matchup is set to kickoff at 9 p.m. ET on FOX, features two teams whose Week 2 games couldn’t have gone in more opposite directions — Kansas State was upset by Army, while Arizona won handedly.
Plenty has changed since head coach Chris Klieman’s K-State's crew opened at No 17 in the preseason AP poll. They've been upset by Army, and hardly pulled out a win vs. FCS South Dakota.
Meanwhile, things are humming along in Tucson for Brent Brennan’s group thanks to two blowout wins by a combined score of 88-9.
We’ll break down this Friday college football matchup below with our Kansas State vs. Arizona prediction and player picks to keep an eye on at PrizePicks, including QBs Avery Johnson and Noah Fifita.
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Kansas State vs. Arizona Prediction, Preview for Friday, 9/12
Friday marks the ninth meeting between Kansas State and Arizona dating back to 1941. The desert-dwelling Wildcats own the advantage, going 5-2-1, over Kansas State.
Last year’s 31-7 throttling by Kansas State was a downright dominant performance in a rumble between two then-ranked programs. K-State is back on the road this year, which creates some skepticism.
Kansas State is coming off a loss to a depleted Army team; a massive upset vs. a team that lost to Tarleton State just a week before. Meanwhile, Arizona hasn't had a real test yet, and gets to play at home here.
🔥 Find more Friday CFB DFS picks for Week 3 on PrizePicks here
Kansas State Preview vs. Arizona
It’s hard to argue against the doubt surrounding K-State right now.
The wind in K-State’s sails got taken out to start the year when they traveled to Dublin and dropped a 24-21 heartbreaker to Iowa State.
Since that defeat at the hands of the Cyclones, it’s been another pair of three-point margins. Week 1’s narrow win over North Dakota was too close for comfort, then the Wildcats laid an egg in Week 2 and blew a TD lead to Army — one of the most underwhelming teams in FBS.
A disappointing ground game that ranks 117th ranking in EPA/rush, per Game on Paper, plus three stressful weeks have fans in Manhattan on edge. Can QB Avery Johnson save the season in a weak Big 12? Or is this the nail in the coffin for K-State?
Arizona Preview vs. Kansas State
The vibes in Arizona, understandably, are much better. Beating down on Hawai’i by a final score of 40-6 to open the year, then manhandling FCS Weber State 48-3 will do that.
A sizable caveat, however, must be considered. According to ESPN’s strength of schedule ranks, Zona’s first two opponents make for the 11th-easiest slate thus far.
At the end of the day, a team can only play who’s on the docket. A 2-0 start, paired with a No. 30 slotting in offensive EPA/play, leaves Noah Fifita and his Wildcats shining.
Kansas State vs. Arizona Picks for CFB DFS
Below are some of the top Kansas State vs. Arizona picks for PrizePicks CFB DFS on Friday, September 12, in Week 3. Projections for QB Avery Johnson, WR Jayce Brown, and QB Noah Fifita stand out on this slate.
Kansas State QB Avery Johnson Projection: 227.5 Pass Yards
If there’s one thing Johnson has done this season, it’s try to air it out. The former four-star recruit leads the Big 12 in both completions (64) and attempts (98) entering Week 3 of play; as seen above, that hasn't always worked out for him.
Johnson’s numbers — 763 pass yards, 6 TDs and 1 INT — look tremendous on the surface. Advanced metrics like his 47th-ranked EPA/dropback mark (0.18, per Game on Paper) add more realistic context.
In six of Johnson’s 13 games last season, he threwfor fewer than 200 yards. His only instance of doing so this year was the Army ga,e (172 yards on 25 attempts). His lack of run success (78 yards) is puzzling as well, considering he rushes for 55+ yards in four of his last six games in 2024, but has not hit that total again in 2025 vs. weak competiton.
Kansas State WR Jayce Brown Projection: 77.5 Receiving Yards
Like Johnson, WR Jayce Brown sits atop the Big 12 in two categories. His 19 catches for 216 yards both lead the pack. That’s even while leaving plenty of meat on the bone, as Kansas State has just a 39% success rate.
Though he floundered vs. Army, Brown has 78 yards and 109 yards in his first two games of the season.
Standing at 6-foot, Brown can line up on the outside (28.7% out wide, per PFF), but works primarily from the slot. He averages an impressive 2.37 yards per route run on the year.
In last year’s KSU-Arizona game, Brown logged 3 catches for 60 yards. It was a middle-of-the-pack statistical output for his sophomore season.
Arizona QB Noah Fifita Projection: 249.5 Pass Yards
Now in his fourth year, Fifita’s experience is coming in handy. After tying for the conference lead in INTs a season ago, he has yet to throw one in two starts — although both games were vs. underwhelming defenses,
Fifita is already up to 6 TDs despite throwing just 45 times in two blowout games. He boasts a downright scorching 14.5 adjusted yards per attempt so far.
This game is all about volume. Arizona ranks 120th in pass plays per game entering Week 3. Can a success rate of 31st persuade the Wildcats to throw more?
Fifita had more than 290 passing yards in 7 of 12 games last year, though he did have now-Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan in the fold; when Fifita did have more than 250 passing yards, he averaged exactly 300 yards. That includes 268 yards passing last year, though McMillan accounted for more than half of those yards.
Make Kansas State vs. Arizona Picks on PrizePicks
As we hit Week 3 of the college football season, this Big 12 showdown — which is technically a non-conference game — is already shaping up to be a must-watch game at 9 p.m. ET on FOX.
In addition to Kansas State vs. Arizona picks, there are plenty of Week 3 CFB DFS projections to consider with PrizePicks. Win real money with your predictions!
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