Coming off a dramatic come-from-behind win over the Chicago Bears in Week 1, the Minnesota Vikings host the Atlanta Falcons in tonight’s NFC showdown at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday Night Football.
QB J.J. McCarthy will look to keep building momentum in his second career start, while WR Justin Jefferson once again headlines Minnesota’s pass game vs. an Atlanta secondary that has shown cracks early in 2025, giving up three pass TDs to the Bucs.
Below, we’ll break down Justin Jefferson’s projections and identify a best pick for Falcons vs. Vikings on SNF tonight, with historical context and statistical analysis.
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Justin Jefferson Projections vs. Falcons, Best Picks
This Falcons vs. Titans game offers some nice matchups to target, but Jefferson stands out as a reliable play. With elite usage, favorable history vs. Atlanta, and a rookie QB who leaned on him heavily in the clutch, Jefferson gets a nice spot to put up another WR1 performance.
Justin Jefferson Projection: 73.5 Receiving Yards
Jefferson’s projection sits at 73.5 receiving yards vs. the Falcons tonight. In two career games vs. Atlanta, Jefferson averaged 149 yards and never dipped below 132. The Falcons allowed 48 YAC to opposing WRs in Week 1.
Jefferson had no contested catches against the Bears, dominating 1-on-1 routes. Against a defense that struggles to contain WR1s, and Jordan Addison still suspended, Jefferson should have plenty of opportunity tonight.
The Falcons defense ranked 25th in dropback expected points added per play in 2024, a plus matchup for Jefferson.
Justin Jefferson Projection: 5.5 Receptions
Target share is king, and Jefferson has commanded the WR room through one matchup — he has a 35% target share vs. the Bears.
With Addison suspended, he could realistically see double-digit looks tonight. Last week, he led the team with 7 targets despite McCarthy’s limited volume.
If Minnesota trails, or the game script leans toward a shootout, Jefferson has even more upside to rack up receptions.
Justin Jefferson Projection: 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs
Jefferson has scored in both of his career games against Atlanta, and the Falcons’ defense just gave up three passing TDs to Mayfield. Jefferson started 2024 by scoring a TD in four straight games last year — two of those were in games without Addison.
Jefferson tied his career high with 10 touchdown catches last year.
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Pick on Justin Jefferson Projections on PrizePicks
Sunday night’s Falcons vs. Vikings matchup offers one of the most intriguing WR vs. secondary battles of the early NFL season.
With WR Justin Jefferson established as QB J.J. McCarthy’s go-to weapon and Atlanta’s coverage still proving shaky, Jefferson projections across the board are intriguing.
Lock in your PrizePicks picks for tonight’s Falcons vs. Vikings showdown to win real money; pick your players — including Justin Jefferson, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in when your predictions hit.
