Two UFC straps are on the line Saturday. The middleweight main event between Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland is a can’t-miss battle, but don’t sleep on a clash of gifted young flyweights as Joshua Van makes his first title defense against Tatsuro Taira.
Van won this title from Alexandre Pantoja due to an injury less than 60 seconds into his first title opportunity. That same night, Tatsuro Taira’s dominant Round 2 win over Brandon Moreno made him the next clear challenger as the former champ heals.
The co-main event of UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland is expected to start on Saturday, May 9, at 10:45 p.m. ET on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude.
Below, we'll highlight our Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira prediction, followed by a pick for UFC 328.
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Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira Prediction and Payouts for UFC 328 Co-Main Event
Below are the payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means that result will payout $200 on a $100 entry.
Joshua Van: 2.22x
Tatsuro Taira: 1.58x
Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.
There is perhaps no division with more youth in its championship picture than flyweight, as Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira will battle for the same championship before their 27th birthday.
The aforementioned unfortunate injury to Pantoja stole the shine off Van, whose meteoric rise led him to become the second-youngest champion in the promotion’s history. He did so in an unceremonious fashion.
The Burmese boxer’s lightning-quick hands, anti-grappling, cardio, and ability to work the body have allowed him to land 8.84 significant strikes per minute with elite accuracy (56%). That’s the highest of any current champion iin the UFC. There’s just very little wasted motion in Van’s output, and he uses it to sap foes.
“The Fearless” will be a gem in five-round fights; the Pantoja fight was supposed to be his first career opportunity in them.
On the other hand, Tatsuro Taira is a crafty grappling specialist from Japan looking to be, shockingly, the first to don undisputed UFC gold from his country. “The Best” won six straight bouts to begin his career before his first career main event with Brandon Royval ended in a split-decision loss. It was not a reduction of the talented prospect's stock to go 25 minutes at a truly unbelievable pace.
Taira has scored six stoppages in nine appearances, and all of them were predicated on his sleek ground game — shown in the box score by 3.12 takedowns and 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes landed.
The obvious striker-versus-grappler dynamic should decide this fight as it often does. Van won’t win with Taira on his back for a majority of the fight. Taira probably won’t be able to keep pace in a boxing match with Van. It’s fascinating to see who has their way.
How Joshua Van Wins UFC 328 Co-Main Event
Josh Van’s unusual boxing talent makes his game plan pretty similar for each fight. If he can stuff the wrestling advances, he’s in his office.
Van has done that at an incredible level in similar matchups to this, too. He stuffed 17 of 21 takedowns from Japan’s Rei Tsuruya, 5 of 6 from Brazil’s Bruno Silva, and he stopped 6 of 8 from American wrestler Cody Durden.
Those three average a 37% takedown accuracy, so Taira (46%) is certainly a much-needed step up.
A key to Van's victory in this fight may be maintaining a high pace as the striker. It’s more taxing to wrestle, so the harder he can push, the more likely it is that he’ll be able to fatigue Taira. If successful, he might set a flyweight record for takedowns stopped in this fight. It’s currently 17, held by John Dodson since 2015.
He really started to roll downhill against Durden and Silva, stopping the latter in Round 3. Van might feel inevitable if he’s having early success staying on his feet.
How Tatsuro Taira Wins UFC 328 Co-Main Event
All of Taira’s eight wins have come from dominant positions on the mat, so it’s unlikely he will attempt to outbox Van for 25 minutes. I wouldn’t recommend that, anyway.
Van was submitted on the regional scene in Texas in December 2021, and he’s only faced one submission attempt in the UFC. Going through the proper defense sequence against a crafty grappler like Taira will be uncharted water for him in the UFC.
An underrated key to victory for Taira in this matchup, I believe, is also sitting down on his shots. At 5’7” with a 70” reach, Taira is big for the weight class and has a modest 1.06% knockdown rate for someone not known for their striking. Van was knocked out by Charles Johnson — a foe on the fringe of the rankings — in 2024, so he must test that chin if the grappling isn’t going his way.
Taira could win this bout with big, impactful moments. It may slip away from him if Van, whose 0.46% knockdown rate isn’t nearly as high, can start to outpoint him in a longer fight.
Van vs. Taira Prediction and Verdict for UFC 328 Flyweight Title Fight
Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works
I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.
To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible.
Van vs. Taira Model Results
The model gives Van a 53.1% chance of winning this fight as an underdog, which is a vote of confidence in how he is perceived under the MMA scoring criteria. It’s much harder to win the fight with control time than punches to the head or body.
It is very difficult for an analytical model to look at him landing 6.90 more significant strikes per minute historically than Taira and expect he doesn’t score — especially when his striking defense (57%) is also 10 percentage points higher.
However, the potency of Taira, and why I believe he’s the favorite, is shown by his results for an early finish. The Japanese prospect carries more power and a lethal submission game, whereas Van has yet to record a first-round stoppage due to a lack of punching power and has never attempted a submission in UFC.
This is a phenomenal matchup where both fighters have an extremely realistic chance to win. Any notion otherwise is foolish when there just isn’t extremely high-quality data on two young fighters who are still within improvement windows.
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Van vs. Taira Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Joshua Van - 75.5 Significant Strikes
The toughest job in America this week might go to whoever is tasked with setting Van’s projections for significant strikes. It realistically could be anywhere from 0 to 300, and I’m not joking.
Of course, the “0” is a dominant, first-round ground win from Taira, where his regional warts defending submissions immediately resurface. The "300"comes from a 25-minute war where he defends Taira’s takedowns and wilts his poor 47% striking defense similarly to how former 145-pound champion Max Holloway did with his lack of punching power in his prime.
Finding a balance to weigh a median projection here is difficult, but the model’s 50.1% likelihood that the fight goes the full 25 minutes is a vote of confidence in his historically elite volume. Of course, that full-length fight is only helpful if he can keep Taira off him for the majority of the bout, though.
Make Your Van vs. Taira Picks on PrizePicks.
Make Your Van vs. Taira Picks on PrizePicks
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland’s co-main event goes down this Saturday from Newark, New Jersey. Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight.
Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in Van vs. Taira, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
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