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Josh Allen Projections, Pick for Monday Night Football

Bills QB Josh Allen throws a football in an NFL game.
AP Photo/Adam Hunger

The Bills look to rebound from their first loss of the season as Buffalo travels to Atlanta on Monday night. This interconference battle kicks off at 7:15 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Buffalo jumped out to a 4-0 start before getting tripped up at home last Sunday night by New England, 23-20. The Bills hit the road for only the second time this season after a 2-1 homestand.

Bills QB Josh Allen entered Week 5 ranked ninth in the NFL with 1,217 passing yards and tied for seventh with 9 passing TDs. 

Below, we’ll give you the top Josh Allen projections for Bills vs. Falcons tonight for PrizePicks NFL, as he looks to lead Buffalo to its second road victory. 

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Best Josh Allen Pick vs. Falcons in NFL DFS

Here is the best Josh Allen pick for Monday’s NFL game vs. the Falcons.

Bills QB Josh Allen — 232.5 Passing Yards

  • Since torching the Ravens for 394 passing yards in the season opener, Allen was limited to less than 230 yards in three consecutive games.
  • Allen bounced back to compile 253 passing yards in the Week 5 loss to the Patriots, while tossing multiple TD passes for the fourth time this season.
  • According to PFF, the Falcons’ defense ranks 18th in overall defense grade. Atlanta moves to 14th in grade for defensive coverage on receivers.
  • The Falcons have yielded a league-low 135 passing yards per game. Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield posted the most passing yards against Atlanta this season with 167 in their 23-20 victory in Week 1.
  • Allen led the NFL in adjusted EPA per play last season at 0.332. Through five games this season, the 2024 MVP ranks fourth in this category, behind Seattle’s Sam Darnold, Green Bay’s Jordan Love, and Indianapolis’ Daniel Jones.
  • Dating back to last season, Allen has racked up more than 237 passing yards in five of the past six road contests. 
  • The lone game he finished below this projection came in the 30-10 rout of the Jets in Week 2, closing with 148 yards and a bloody nose suffered in the first quarter.
  • Allen posted his worst game from a YPA standpoint against the Jets (5.9). Last season, out of his seven best YPA performances, only two came away from Orchard Park.

More Josh Allen projections vs. Falcons Tonight

Here are other top Josh Allen projections vs. the Falcons tonight, via PrizePicks.

  • 33.5 Rushing Yards
  • 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs
  • 1.5 Passing TDs (Goblin)
  • 21.5 Fantasy Score
  • 267.5 Passing+Rushing Yards
  • 30.5 Passing Attempts
  • 14.5 Longest Rush
  • 20.5 Passing Completions
  • 35.5 Longest Completion

Make Your NFL Picks on PrizePicks

The Buffalo Bills look to get on track with a trip to Atlanta on Monday to face the 2-2 Falcons. Josh Allen tries to solve this tough Falcons’ pass defense and eclipse his passing projections.

This Monday night NFL game provides us with a key matchup that you can use to build your lineup. The game plans are always changing and with injuries and other roster decisions impacting teams, we could see some interesting performances from a variety of players.

Build your NFL Lineup on PrizePicks with your favorite NFL projections and win real money if your picks are correct. All you have to do is pick More or Less on at least two player projections — like passing touchdowns or rush yards— to win.

Stay locked in on the Playbook all season long for NFL DFS picks every day.

Get in the game! Sign up for PrizePicks and cash in on your sports predictions. Play $5 and get $50 instantly in Lineups with promo code PLAYBOOK.

about the author

Kevin has spent the last 15 years in the sports gambling space. He covered all major sports at VegasInsider both as a writer and handicapper from 2009 until 2024. He has also covered college basketball and MLB for the Action Network.

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