Jaylen Waddle Stats, Pick vs. Steelers: Dolphins WR1 Meets Vulnerable Defense

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle catches a football in an NFL game.
AP Photo/Doug Murray

Two teams hovering around .500 collide on Monday Night Football, as the Miami Dolphins (6-7) pay a visit to Acrisure Stadium, where they'll battle the 7-6 Pittsburgh Steelers. Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET, and the game can be seen on ESPN.

Both remain in playoff conversation — the Steelers hold a lead in the AFC North, while Miami sits tenth in the conference standings.

Let’s look at Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle's PrizePicks stats and pick projections for Monday Night Football

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Jaylen Waddle Stats, Pick for Monday Night Football 

RB De’Von Achane is the centerpiece of Miami's offense, leading to a 45.3% rush-play rate (13th). Is there still room for Waddle to get a significant slice of the pie?

Let’s look at his projected stats at PrizePicks, where you can win real money if your picks are right.

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Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle Projection: 63.5 Receiving Yards

Over his last three games, Waddle is averaging 6.7 targets, 3.7 receptions, and 47.3 receiving yards per contest. The former Alabama standout tends to deliver his best numbers when facing zone coverage, carrying 2.72 yards per route run compared to 1.63 when seeing man, per Pro Football Focus.

However, the Steelers feature man coverage at the league's fifth-highest rate, as per Sharp Football Analysis. In a two-game split. Waddle is recording only 48.5 receiving yards per contest against teams in the top five of man coverage rate.

That said, Monday night’s game script could hurt Waddle. Pittsburgh allows 0.00 expected points added (EPA) per dropback (13th) compared to 0.04 EPA per rushing attempt allowed (27th), per Sumer Sports.

Keep in mind, the Fins have a 45.3% rush-play rate (13th), and Achane is the offense’s best skill position player, as witnessed by his 5.8 yards per carry and his league-leading 4.10 yards after contact per carry. PrizePicks projections have Achane in line for 79.5 rushing yards on MNF.

Adding to a potential dip in Waddle’s workload, Miami struggles to protect the passer, ranking 27th in pass block win rate (per ESPN). Meanwhile, the Steelers sit third in pass rush win rate. 


More Jaylen Waddle Projections vs. Steelers on Monday Night Football

  • 7 Reception Targets
  • 23.5 Yards on Longest Reception
  • 13 Fantasy Score
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Make Monday Night Football Picks on PrizePicks

Waddle’s potential role on MNF could be all about the game script, as several PrizePicks projections suggest a slow-paced, low-scoring game.

The former first-round pick has seen his numbers dip against man coverage. Will the Steelers’ heavy-man coverage secondary cause headaches for the five-year vet?

Make your picks for Monday Night Football with PrizePicks. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and earn real-money rewards if you're right.

Check out the Playbook throughout the season for more NFL picks, predictions, and news every day.

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about the author

Riley Thomas is a 2021 graduate of Ohio University who has worked for FanDuel Sportsbook and BetUS Sportsbook. He specializes in covering the NFL, NBA, college football, and college basketball. In Riley's free time, you can find him cheering on Ohio State and Kentucky or playing video games and reading the latest comics.

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