Tonight at UFC 322, we get one of the most anticipated fight cards of the year, live from Madison Square Garden. Headlining the main event, weeget a title fight matchup that has everyone talking between UFC welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena vs. lightweight champion Islam Makhachev — who will move up a weight class — in a high-stakes UFC fight.
We’ll break down our Maddalena vs. Makhachev prediction and UFC 322 expert pick below, including PrizePicks UFC picks and key stats for this high-level showdown between two of the UFC’s most technical and dangerous finishers.
Maddalena vs. Makhachev Pick, Preview at UFC 322
Jack Della Maddalena (18-2) enters UFC 322 riding an incredible wave of momentum, proving himself as one of the sport’s most polished strikers. The Australian standout has won eight consecutive UFC bouts and 18 in a row overall, highlighted by his victory over Belal Muhammad to capture the UFC welterweight championship at UFC 315, which showcased his elite boxing skills and improved takedown defense.
Across from him stands Islam Makhachev (27-1), the reigning lightweight champion who has dominated every opponent since capturing the belt. Known for his smothering grappling and ever-improving striking, Makhachev steps up in weight, looking to conquer a second division and solidify his status as the world’s top pound-for-pound fighter.
If this fight stays standing, Maddalena’s crisp combinations and body work could force Makhachev into uncomfortable territory. He lands 6.8 significant strikes per minute at over 50% accuracy, constantly stalking opponents until he finds the finish.
However, Makhachev’s control and submission threat on the ground remain unmatched, averaging over three takedowns per fight with 53% takedown accuracy. His ability to seamlessly transition between striking and grappling has made him nearly impossible to prepare for.
This title fight is the classic striker vs. grappler chess match with championship-level stakes. Whether Maddalena can stuff the takedowns and keep the fight upright or Makhachev can drag him into deep waters will determine who leaves New York City with their hand raised and the belt around their waist.
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev Start Time, Stats, How Each Wins
Maddalena has been one of the most efficient finishers in the welterweight division, and his composure inside the pocket sets him apart from the rest in the welterweight division. His crisp boxing combinations, sharp counters, and powerful body shots make him an immediate threat to anyone willing to trade.
What makes Maddalena dangerous is his timing and accuracy — he rarely wastes a punch and has the ability to maintain constant pressure without overextending. If he can keep the fight standing and avoid prolonged grappling exchanges, he has the tools to test Makhachev’s chin in ways few have dared.
However, Makhachev presents the kind of stylistic challenge that can derail even the most polished strikers. His suffocating wrestling, world-class control, and slick transitions on the mat have neutralized elite opponents time and again.
Makhachev’s striking continues to evolve as well, allowing him to set up takedowns behind a calm, disciplined jab and powerful left hand. Once he establishes control, his top pressure and submission threat can completely drain an opponent’s energy.
While Maddalena’s offensive striking will likely create exciting moments early, Makhachev’s grappling edge and championship experience give him multiple ways to win.
UFC 322 Maddalena vs. Makhachev Start Time, How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, November 15, 2025
- Time: Main Card – 10 p.m. ET | Maddalena vs. Makhachev Start Time – 12 a.m. ET (estimate)
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY
- TV: ESPN+ PPV
Jack Della Maddalena Stats for UFC 322
Overall Record: 18-2
UFC Record: 8-0
Last 5 Fights: 5-0
Height: 5’11"
Reach: 73”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.8
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 0.16
Last Fight: Win vs. Belal Muhammad by Decision
Finishes: 14 (12 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Islam Makhachev Stats for UFC 322
Overall Record: 27-1
UFC Record: 16-1
Last 5 Fights: 5-0
Height: 5’10"
Reach: 70”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.6
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 3.2
Last Fight: Win vs. Renato Moicano by SUB in round 1
Finishes: 18 (5 KO/TKO/13 SUB)
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev Prediction, Pick for UFC 322
Here is our expert UFC 322 prediction and pick for Brady vs. Morales. All picks are available via PrizePicks MMA board.
Maddalena vs. Makhachev Pick: Maddalena – 56.5 Significant Strikes
- Maddalena has an average fight time of 10:32.
- The Aussie lands 6.8 and throws 13.1 significant strikes per minute while landing 52% of his strikes.
- The UFC welterweight champion has landed 350 significant strikes (116.6 average) in his last three fights.
- In his only five-round main event fight, Maddalena landed 178 of his 342 significant strikes thrown.
- Maddalena has landed at least 67 significant strikes in four consecutive fights.
PrizePicks is running a promo for UFC 322 tonight: Makhachev's significant strikes are discounted from 56.5 to 31.5 — meaning the champ only needs 32 sig strikes to cash his projection in this five-round title fight!
Make Maddalena vs. Makhachev Picks on PrizePicks
UFC 322: Maddalena vs. Makhachev will be broadcast live on ESPN+ PPV from Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY, this Saturday, November 15.
This main event welterweight title fight pits the newly crowned welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena putting his title on the line for the very first time against the former lightweight king Islam Makhachev, who seeks to be the next men’s double champ going down in history as one of the all-time greats.
You can win real money by locking in your UFC 322 predictions on PrizePicks — from the first fight of the night all the way to the welterweight main event. Pick your fighters, and win cash if you're right.
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