The NCAA Tournament's second round continues on Sunday with eight games deciding the final berths in the Round of 16. No. 9 seed Iowa, fresh off an impressive wire-to-wire win over Clemson, takes on No. 1 seed and defending champion Florida in a South regional matchup.
The winner of this 7:10 ET contest on TBS advances to the Round of 16 to meet No. 4 Nebraska in Houston. The Gators are favored by 10.5 points.
Below, we’ll break down our Iowa-Florida prediction and picks for Sunday night's game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Iowa vs. Florida Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Iowa earned its first NCAA Tournament win since 2021 on Friday night, defeating Clemson 67-61. The Hawkeyes started the season 7-0 and had another six-game winning streak in the middle of the season but faded down the stretch, losing six of their last eight games before splitting two Big Ten Tournament battles.
The Hawkeyes are back in the tourney for the first time since 2023 and haven't advanced to the Round of 16 since 1999, when they lost to eventual champion UConn.
The Gators pummeled No. 16-seed Prairie View A&M on Friday, winning 114-55. The 59-point win was the second-largest in NCAA Tournament history and the largest by a No. 1 over a No. 16. Florida had seven starters in double figures and shot 64% from the field.
Florida, looking to match the 2006-07 teams with back-to-back national titles, won the SEC regular-season crown with a 16-2 conference record. Florida started 14-6 overall before ripping off 11 straight wins to end the regular season.
After a third win over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, the Gators dropped their semifinal game to Vanderbilt.
Iowa vs. Florida Spread, Over/Under
Florida enters Saturday’s NCAA Tournament second-round game as 10.5-point favorites with a 1.16 payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Iowa is the underdog with a 5.26x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Florida Gators -10.5 (1.88x payout)
- Over/Under: 145.5 (1.92 payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Iowa 5.26x | Florida 1.16x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Iowa vs. Florida Prediction on Spread – 3/22/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your NCAA Tournament Iowa vs. Florida prediction on the spread for Sunday, March 22 on PrizePicks.
- The Hawkeyes are 19-14 against the spread. That 55.9% cover percentage is fourth-best in the Big Ten. However, Iowa had failed to cover in four of five before covering against Clemson on Friday.
- As an underdog, the Hawkeyes are 4-5 ATS. They were a double-digit underdog twice this season, covering both times but losing outright to Purdue and Iowa State.
- Per KenPom, Iowa is rated 29th in the country overall, the highest of the No. 9 seeds and higher than 10 teams seeded better than them. Iowa has an offensive rating of 122.5 (29th) and a defensive rating of 99.6 (31st).
- The Hawkeyes hold opponents to 65.8 points per game, second in the Big Ten and 16th in the country.
- Florida is 18-16 ATS, the fifth-best cover percentage (52.9%) in the SEC. They've covered in six of their last eight, 10 of their last 14, and 15 of their last 20 contests.
- As a favorite of 10+ points, the Gators are 7-12 ATS.
- Florida is rated fourth in the country on KenPom with an offensive rating of 125.9 (ninth) and a defensive rating of 91.8 (sixth).
- UF leads the country in rebounds per game (45.7), rebounding margin (15.1), and offensive rebounds (16.1). It's also fourth in defensive rebounds (29.6) each night.
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Make Iowa vs. Florida Picks on PrizePicks
Can Iowa pull off an upset and shock the NCAA Tournament by knocking off the defending champs, or will the Gators continue their march to back-to-back national titles?
You can make your Iowa vs. Florida picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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