Two of college basketball’s best teams will face off at the Breslin Center on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX. No. 5 Illinois (20-3) is set to visit No. 10 Michigan State (19-4) for a February 7 bout.
The Fighting Illini are second in the Big Ten standings and have won 12 straight contests, so the Spartans might be in for a real test as they look to rebound from back-to-back losses.
Below, we’ll go over an Illinois vs. Michigan State prediction, spread, and college basketball picks for today, including some PrizePicks projections for standout players on each side.
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Illinois vs. Michigan State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Illinois has looked like the second-best team in the Big Ten so far this season.
The Fighting Illini are only second to Michigan in points per game (84.6) among teams in the conference, and their productivity from beyond the arc might be their most important weapon here. Illinois leads the Big Ten in made triples per game (11.2) — only 15 teams in the nation average 11 or more.
Standout freshman G Keaton Wagler has been one of the main driving forces behind that success. He averages a team-high 17.9 points and is making an exceptional 44.4% of his attempts from deep despite hoisting up 5.8 per contest. His offense may be of the utmost importance against the second-best scoring defense in the Big Ten.
Michigan State is enduring a two-game losing streak, but only Iowa cedes fewer PPG (64.9) in the Big Ten. The Spartans hold opposing teams to a measly 39.2% shooting, a mark that only Michigan can top in the Big Ten.
The Spartans may be able to swing this game in their favor by mucking things up and forcing the visitors to take tough shots from the perimeter.
Illinois vs. Michigan State Over/Under, Spread
Michigan State enters Saturday’s game as a 1.5-point home favorite, returning a 1.81x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Illinois is a road underdog with a 1.88x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Michigan State -1.5
- Over/Under: 143.5
- Game Winner Payout: Illinois 1.88x | Michigan State 1.81x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Illinois vs. Michigan State Prediction on Spread
- Illinois is 9-3 against the spread during its current 12-game winning streak.
- Michigan State has failed to cover in three consecutive outings.
- The Fighting Illini are disciplined on defense and concede the fewest free throws per game (11.5) in the country.
- The highest adjusted offensive rating (130.6) in the country belongs to Illinois, per KenPom.
- Illinois is the only Big Ten team that averages more offensive rebounds per game (13.2) than Michigan State.
Illinois vs. Michigan State Picks for PrizePicks Today: Saturday, February 7
Scorers could be the theme for today's player projections on PrizePicks. Illinois G Keaton Wagler and Michigan State G Jeremy Fears stand out as potential targets.
Illinois G Keaton Wagler vs. Michigan State Projection: 23.5 Pts + Asts
- The impressive true freshman is shooting better than 50.0% from the field and beyond the arc on the road.
- Wagler averages 25.4 combined points and assists in enemy territory.
- Illinois’ leading scorer has attempted 15 or more shots in three consecutive away contests.
- The sharpshooter has amassed 74 points in his previous two matchups against top-10 teams.
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Michigan State G Jeremy Fears vs. Illinois Projection: 13.5 Points
- Fears has attempted 9.0 free throws per contest over the last five times in which he’s scored at least 14 points.
- Illinois holds opposing teams to a lowly 40.1% shooting overall.
- Opposing teams shoot a Big Ten-low 70.5% from the charity stripe against Illinois.
- The Fighting Illini rank 19th in adjusted defensive rating (97.4) thus far in the 2025-26 season.
Make #5 Illinois vs. #10 Michigan State Picks on PrizePicks
Saturday’s Big Ten battle between No. 5 Indiana and No. 10 Michigan State features teams that excel when it comes to defense and rebounding. It also puts two young stars, guards Keaton Wagler and Jeremy Fears, under the spotlight at the Breslin Center.
Make your Illinois vs. Michigan State picks on PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can also make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
