Hawaii (7–3, 4–2) heads to Las Vegas for a critical Mountain West matchup against UNLV (8–2, 4–2) at Allegiant Stadium to close out Friday’s college football slate (10:30 p.m. ET, FS1).
The Rainbow Warriors ride into Week 13 with one of the conference’s most improved offenses, while UNLV continues to thrive in a balanced system that has made the Rebels one of the top red zone teams in the MWC.
Below, we break down our Hawaii vs. UNLV prediction and CFB picks for Friday, also highlighting the top PrizePicks player projection targets for this showdown.
Hawaii vs. UNLV Prediction, Preview: Friday, Nov. 21
Hawaii enters Friday night after a dominant 38–6 win over San Diego State. QB Micah Alejado directed an offense that hit multiple explosives in the first half and continued Hawaii's late-season rise through the air.
UNLV returns home following a narrow 29–26 victory over Utah State, where the offense racked up 422 yards. QB Anthony Colandrea continued to manage the offense well, while the rushing attack delivered timely production to keep the Rebels runnin’.
Here’s a closer look at our Hawaii vs. UNLV prediction and matchup breakdown for Friday night.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Preview vs. UNLV
Hawaii's offensive identity continues to shift toward the passing game. The Warriors sit 52nd nationally in EPA/pass (0.08) and average 46 pass plays per game, the second-highest volume in FBS, per Game on Paper.
Alejado has delivered steady production, completing 69% of his passes with 92.8 total EPA. Hawaii has topped 285 passing yards multiple times in Mountain West play, and the offense has gained more available yardage than opponents in most recent weeks (6.2% AY%, 40th nationally).
The run game remains low-efficiency (129th in EPA/rush at -0.14), but Hawaii mitigates it with quick-game concepts and spacing that keeps Alejado out of long-yardage downs. Hawaii generates a top-40 pass success rate (42.6%).
Defensively, Hawaii produces mixed results. Against the pass, they rank 33rd in EPA/play (-0.10), but the run defense remains one of the weaker units nationally (No. 125 in EPA/rush at +0.12). That creates pressure on the back seven, especially on early downs, where the Rainbow Warriors allow +0.08 EPA/play.
UNLV Rebels Preview vs. Hawaii
UNLV sits 12th nationally in offensive EPA/play (+0.16). Colandrea continues to drive that balance. The Rebels' run game offers steady production (eighth in EPA/play at 0.18), giving them one of the few offenses in FBS that ranks top 35 in both dimensions.
RB Jai’Den Thomas has led the ground game with 780 yards on 103 carries, supported by a rotating cast that has kept UNLV’s success rate high (45.9%, 16th in FBS). When UNLV’s wins early downs, Colandrea helps give the Rebels one of the stronger situational offense profiles in the conference.
UNLV remains volatile on defense, ranking 114th in defensive EPA/play, with most issues tied to run defense (No. 134 in EPA/rush). Opposing pass games have found windows against UNLV’s secondary (0.01 EPA/pass allowed), which aligns directly with Hawaii's strength.
The Rebels compensate with physicality up front and a strong home environment. If they create leverage on early downs and maintain their rushing efficiency, they could place pressure on Hawaii to trade scores through the air.
Hawaii vs. UNLV PrizePicks Projections for Week 13
Here are the top Hawaii vs. UNLV picks for PrizePicks CFB today, plus projections to target, for Friday night's Mountain West showdown.
Hawaii QB Micah Alejado Projection vs. UNLV — 315.5 Passing Yards
- Alejado ranks 32nd in EPA per pass (0.30) and operates within an offense that throws 44.1 times per game, the second-highest volume in FBS.
- Hawaii faces a UNLV defense allowing positive EPA on early downs (0.09) and per pass, offering a favorable efficiency matchup.
- UNLV has allowed multiple opponents to generate vertical yardage, and Hawaii's available-yardage profile (48.7% AY%) suggests potential for passing volume.
- Should Hawaii trail or play with pace, its pass rate could climb sharply. Friday's matchup may play directly into one of those scripts.
Hawaii WR Jackson Harris Projection vs. UNLV — 96.5 Receiving Yards
- Jackson Harris has 7 TDs in his last three outings and leads the team with 91.4 receiving yards per game.
- UNLV allows a 42% passing success rate (59th) and has struggled to contain primary downfield targets.
- Hawaii's passing efficiency supports spike weeks from its lead receivers.
- With UNLV ranking 134th in EPA/rush surrendered, Hawaii is incentivized to push a high-volume aerial script.
UNLV QB Anthony Colandrea Projection vs. Hawaii — 235.5 Passing Yards
- Colandrea enters Week 13 averaging 0.29 EPA/play with a 67% completion rate and a 47% success rate, ranking among the most effective QBs in the Mountain West.
- Hawaii's pass defense remains stronger than its run defense but still allows a 40% passing success clip, which is 37th.
- UNLV averages 33 pass attempts per game. Hawaii's pass-heavy approach could trigger an even greater volume from the opposition.
- UNLV’s passing efficiency (0.14 EPA/pass, 32nd) still gives Colandrea a matchup where he could tell the tale.
Make Hawaii vs. UNLV Picks on PrizePicks
Friday night brings a matchup of contrasting strengths:Hawaii’s high-volume passing attack versus UNLV’s balanced offense.
With PrizePicks, you can cash in on Friday night’s action by targeting players like Micah Alejado, Anthony Colandrea, Jackson Harris and more CFB picks.
Just pick your college football players, predict More or Less on their stat projections, and win real money if you’re right.
