Florida State and Florida, in-state rivals, meet up to close disappointing regular seasons for both schools.
The Seminoles, fresh off a 2-10 season, started with an upset win over nationally-ranked Alabama but have dropped six of 10 since. Florida’s 3-8, lost season will end on Saturday regardless of the result. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday on ESPN2.
Rumors continue to swirl about Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin and the open job at Florida. In the meantime, Florida interim coach Billy Gonzales, who took over for Billy Napier once he was fired, seeks his first win. This bout will feature FSU QB Thomas Castellanos and Florida’s DJ Lagway behind center.
Below, we'll give you our Florida State vs. Florida prediction and Saturday CFB picks on PrizePicks, including Castellanos and Lagway's player projections.
Florida State vs. Florida Prediction, Preview for Week 14
Florida State and Florida meet for the 69th time, clashing every year since 1958 except for 2020. Florida has a 38-28-2 series advantage, which includes a 22-13-1 record in Gainesville. UF won last year’s contest (31-11) in Tallahassee, while FSU won two years ago (24-15) on the road.
The Seminoles enter Saturday's contest as 2.5-point road underdogs, returning a 1.88x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Gators are home favorites with a 1.85x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Florida Gators -2.5
- Total: 50.5
- Game Winner Payout: Seminoles 1.88x | Gators 1.85x
Florida State Seminoles Preview vs. Florida
- Florida State needs a win to become bowl eligible. A loss would mark the second straight season and fourth time in six years without a postseason game.
- FSU’s last road win was Nov. 25, 2023 at Florida. Since then, they've gone 0-8 and lost a neutral site bowl game to Georgia.
- A bright spot for the Seminoles has been their offense, which boasts the 15th-ranked rushing attack at 209.8 yards per game.
- FSU also ranks eighth in the nation in converting third downs at 48.87%.
Florida Gators Preview vs. Florida State
- A loss by Florida would be their ninth of the season, their most since going 0-10-1 in 1979.
- Gonzales lost his debut vs. Georgia (24-20) and then suffered defeats to Kentucky (38-7), Ole Miss (34-24), and Tennessee (31-11).
- Florida’s offense entered the week 120th of 136 FBS teams in scoring at 19.9 PPG. They also ranked 105th in rushing offense and 91st in passing offense.
- On the other side, Florida’s defense sits 65th in scoring defense, allowing 24.3 PPG. They are 78th in rush defense and 72nd against the pass.
Florida State vs. Florida Picks for PrizePicks
Here are some player picks to monitor for PrizePicks' real-money college football game, including Castellanos and Lagway player picks.
Florida State QB Thomas Castellanos vs. Florida: 216.5 Pass Yards
- After throwing for 240+ yards in six consecutive games, FSU QB Thomas Castellanos has failed to reach 210 yards in his last two games.
- On the season, Castellanos has at least 1 passing or rushing TD in all 11 games.
- Castellanos is a dual-threat QB, rushing for 30+ yards in his last three games and in eight of 11 this year.
- Castellanos’ 142.9 passer rating is 48th in the nation and eighth in the ACC.
- According to Game on Paper, Florida is tied for 45th with 31 passing plays faced per game.
Florida QB DJ Lagway Projection vs. Florida State: 198.5 Pass Yards
- Florida QB DJ Lagway has just as many games not reaching 140 passing yards (four) as he does games with 240+ yards.
- Lagway has faced seven ranked opponents in 11 games, throwing for an average of 198.7 yards per game.
- Lagway’s 124.9 passer rating is ranked 89th among 114 qualified FBS QBs and 15th among 16 qualified SEC QBs.
- His 13 INTs are second-most in the nation, trailing only FAU QB Caden Veltkamp.
Florida RB Jadan Baugh Projection vs. Florida State: 95.5 rushing yards
- Florida RB Jadan Baugh has 45+ rushing yards in all 11 games this season and 60+ rushing in 15 of his last 18 games dating back to 2024.
- He had 81 yards on 11 carries last year vs. Florida State, his third-highest output of the season.
- The star RB has accounted for 30.5% of Florida’s offense this season. His 904 rushing yards are fifth in the SEC.
- Per Game on Paper, Baugh's 48.2% rush success rate is 43rd out of 263 qualified ball carriers.
Make Florida State vs. Florida Picks on PrizePicks
Florida State and Florida, two rivals used to playing games with significant implications, meet up this time with losing records. The Seminoles need a win to reach .500 and snag a bowl game, whereas Florida attempts to avoid its worst season in 46 years.
No matter what your take on this Saturday matchup is, you can win real money with your Florida State vs. Florida predictions on PrizePicks while you watch.
Simply pick your players — from Castellanos to Lagway — predict More or Less on their projected stats, and win cash if you're right. It's that easy.
