The ACC Tournament quarterfinals get underway on Thursday, March 12, featuring the nation’s top team.
The Florida State Seminoles (18-14) and #1 Duke Blue Devils (29-2) clash on Thursday, with tip-off set for 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN and the Blue Devils being 18.5-point favorites.
Who could have an advantage for Thursday’s Florida State vs. Duke pick against the spread? Use PrizePicks Team Picks to make predictions on game winners, spreads, over/unders, and more.
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Florida State vs. Duke Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Duke has dominated this rivalry in recent years, winning nine of the last 10 dating back to the 2016-17 campaign. In their most recent matchup on January 3, Duke defeated Florida State 91-87, but FSU covered the +15.5 spread.
Florida State is 17-13-1 against the spread this year, including 0-3 on a neutral site. Duke is 18-13 ATS and 3-3 on a neutral site.
Florida State vs. Duke Spread, Over/Under
Duke enters this matchup as an 18.5-point favorite, higher than their regular-season matchup against FSU, returning a 1.04x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if it wins outright.
Florida State is the underdog with a 12.33x payout if it wins, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils -18.5
- Over/Under: 149.5
- Game Winner Payout: Florida State 12.33x | Duke 1.04x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Florida State vs. Duke Prediction on Spread – 3/12/26
It’s difficult to argue against Duke being the best team in the nation, with only two losses by a total of five points. According to KenPom, they're the top-rated team in the country, with a net rating of +40.61.
Defense is a key factor in the Blue Devils’ success, as they rank second nationally by allowing just 62.5 points per game. Their opponent shooting percentage of 38.9% is sixth.
The biggest concern for the Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament and into the men’s NCAA Tournament is the injuries to two key players. Duke G Caleb Foster, who is fourth on the team in PPG (8.5), could miss the rest of the season with a fractured foot. C Patrick Ngongba II, second on the team with 6.0 rebounds per game, will miss the ACC Tournament due to foot soreness.
With two starters out, this is an opportunity for Duke F Cameron Boozer to further prove he's one of the top prospects in the upcoming NBA Draft. A star player like Boozer, who's seventh in the country with an average of 22.7 PPG and 14th with 10.2 RPG, can leave a lasting mark soon.
Florida State fought hard against Duke throughout the regular-season matchup and kept things close until the final whistle. The Seminoles rank 31st in the nation with 70.5 possessions per game and controlled the pace in the first clash. The high-scoring matchup featured 178 total points.
FSU was effective from all areas of the court, excelling long-range with F Chauncey Wiggins going 4-for-6 from deep and G Kobe MaGee going 4-for-7. Florida State also won on the boards, outscoring Duke 30-28 in the paint.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Duke is highly favored to win the ACC Tournament with a 1.35x return if it wins. Without two starters and facing a Florida State team that nearly beat them, however, it could be a close and exciting game.
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Make Florida State vs. #1 Duke Picks on PrizePicks
Florida State nearly pulled off the upset against Duke during the regular season, and they’ll have another crack at it on Thursday. You can join in on action for game winners, spreads, and over/under predictions on PrizePicks Team Picks for the ACC Tournament and more.
Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can also make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.
