Week 15 of the NFL slate kicks off with a pair of NFC South opponents going head-to-head, as the Buccaneers host the Falcons on the Thursday Night Football stage.
The matchup from Raymond James Stadium, kicking off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, features two veteran QBs but teams trending in strange directions. With that said, one side still has everything they want in front of them while the other is eliminated from playoff contention.
Below, we’ll break down our Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction and Thursday Night Football picks to consider. Use PrizePicks NFL to monitor player projections and make picks for real rewards if you’re right.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Thursday marks the 65th all-time meeting between the Falcons and Buccaneers. With everything all knotted up at 32-32, it can’t possibly get any closer.
Unfortunately for Atlanta, WR Drake London will once again be out as he recovers from a knee injury. Elsewhere, star TE Kyle Pitts (knee) was a limited participant in practice this week and is questionable.
For Tampa Bay, TE Cade Otton (knee) is doubtful. The good news is WRs Mike Evans (collarbone) and Jalen McMillan (neck) were both activated from injured reserve in time for the game.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Over/Under, Spread
The Falcons enter Thursday’s game as 6.5-point road underdogs, returning a 2.85x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Buccaneers are home favorites with a 1.38x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Game Winner Payout: Falcons 2.85x | Buccaneers 1.38x
Team picks data is live as of publishing and is subject to change.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you prepared for Falcons vs. Buccaneers.
- Through 13 games, the Buccaneers are tied for the second-worst against-the-spread (ATS) record in the NFL at 5-8.
- Tampa Bay’s -26 point differential is the worst of any club currently in the NFC playoff picture.
- The Bucs’ offense is 17th in overall scoring, yet it’s 20th in points per drive and 24th in yards per drive.
- Atlanta’s offense is nothing to write home about, either, ranking 26th in points per drive and 31st in third-down efficiency.
- With that said, the Falcons are an even .500 (3-3) ATS as an away team in 2025. They’re also 4-1-1 as an underdog, with that 80% mark being the second-best.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Thursday Night Football Picks
Here are three Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks for NFL Week 15 on Thursday Night Football. Some top same-game PrizePicks projections to consider include QBs Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield and RB Bijan Robinson.
Falcons QB Kirk Cousins vs. Buccaneers Projection: 204.5 Pass Yards
- In three games since returning as starter, Cousins has averaged 198.3 passing yards per game on 28.7 attempts.
- On 138 attempts in 2025, Cousins is posting career-low marks in TD rate (2.2%), yards per completion (10.1), and QBR (31.8).
- According to SumerSports, among 44 QBs with 150+ total plays, Cousins ranks 40th in EPA/play at -0.17.
- Per nfelo, the Falcons are tied with the Dolphins for the fifth-lowest pass rate over expected at -5.7%.
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson vs. Buccaneers Projection: 116.5 Rush + Rec Yards
- Robinson, the NFL’s scrimmage yards leader entering Week 15, averages 129.5 yards per game. In his last four outings, that number is 134.3. Just over 100 of those per-game yards are rushing.
- In Week 1’s 23-20 loss to the division rival Buccaneers, Robinson managed just 24 rushing yards but exploded for 100 receiving yards and a TD on 6 catches (and 7 targets).
- The former first-round pick’s 17.77% target share trails only Dolphins RB De’Von Achane (20.22%) and 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (24.88%) at the position.
- No team has allowed more receiving yards to RBs than Tampa Bay at 701.
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield vs. Falcons Projection: 240.5 Pass + Rush Yards
- In two full games since returning from an abbreviated Week 12, Mayfield averages just 192.5 combined passing and rushing yards.
- The Buccaneers are 2-5 in their last seven games since starting 5-1. In that stretch, per rbsdm, Mayfield ranks 35th out of 37 QBs in EPA/play.
- Via Sharp Football Analysis, in the same span, Mayfield’s 24.3% combined TD and first down throw rate is dead last.
- Atlanta’s defense may be middling at best, but it sits 15th in points per drive and ninth in fewest passing yards allowed.
Make Falcons vs. Buccaneers Picks on PrizePicks
When Atlanta and Tampa Bay duke it out, there will be plenty of opportunities for Falcons vs. Buccaneers Thursday Night Football picks. The NFL Week 15 slate also leaves the door open for several other player projections and much more.
Just pick players, predict More or Less for their projected stats, and earn real money if you’re right.
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