The Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) and Buffalo Bills (11-4) have clinched spots in the NFL playoffs, but each team has a chance to boost its seeding in Week 17’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
Philly is looking to find its footing, holding a 2-3 record over the last five games. Buffalo, meanwhile, has gotten hot at the perfect time with its ongoing four-game winning streak. After grabbing back-to-back wins, will the Eagles’ defense keep up its strong play against one of the NFL’s best offenses?
Below, we’ll break down the matchup and make an Eagles vs. Bills prediction and picks here at PrizePicks.
Eagles vs. Bills Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Philadelphia is the fourth favorite to win the Super Bowl with a 7.69x payout. In contrast, Buffalo’s 6.66x payout makes it the third favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
These teams haven’t met since 2023, when the Eagles won 37-34 in an overtime thriller. Could we expect another close contest between contenders?
Eagles vs. Bills Over/Under, Spread
The Bills are 2.5-point home favorites, featuring a 1.96x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks with a cover. Sunday’s 43.5 total is on track to be Buffalo’s second-lowest total over the last 10 games.
Returning a 1.96x payout with an outright win, can Philly’s strong defense lead the way on the road?
- Spread: Buffalo Bills -2.5
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Game Winner Payout: Eagles 1.96x | Bills 1.75x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Eagles vs. Bills Prediction on Over/Under
The Eagles allow only 19.3 points per game (fourth) and 5.0 yards per play (eighth), but the Bills light up the scoreboard with 28.9 PPG (third) and 6.0 yards per play (sixth). After posting 32.3 PPG over the previous three outings, will Buffalo’s offense stay hot?
That unit leans on the run, carrying a 50.3% rush-play rate (first). It’s one of the league’s most efficient attacks, with 5.1 yards per carry (second), 158.9 rushing yards per contest (first), and 0.09 EPA per attempt (tied for first), via SumerSports.
Philly’s weakness is defending the run, as they surrender 4.4 yards per attempt (21st) compared to 6.3 yards per pass (third). Opposing teams net -0.03 EPA per rush (tied for 15th) against them. According to ESPN, the Eagles rank 21st in run stuff win rate, and the Bills sit first in run block win rate.
Philadelphia DT Jalen Carter (shoulders) is expected to return from injury this week, but LB Nakobe Dean (hamstring) will be absent.
Shifting our focus to Philly’s offense, it’s racked up 30.0 PPG over its last two games. The Eagles have leaned on the ground game, posting 195.0 rushing yards per contest over the past two outings. Buffalo’s rush D cedes 5.4 yards per carry (31st), 144.3 yards per game (29th), and 0.12 EPA per attempt (31st). Similar to the Bills’ offense, Philadelphia depends on the run with a 48.4% rush rate (fourth).
Considering the recent production from each offense, Sunday’s total may be a bit low with both units carrying favorable matchups in the run game.
Eagles vs. Bills Picks for Week 17
The rushing attacks could be at the forefront on Sunday, as Eagles RB Saquon Barkley and Bills QB Josh Allen stand out among PrizePicks’ player projections.
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley vs. Bills Projection: 83.5 Rushing Yards
- Since Week 14, Barkley has enjoyed a hefty role of 21.0 rushing attempts and 110.7 rushing yards per game (5.3 yards per carry).
- In a five-game split against defenses in the bottom five of EPA per rush allowed, Barkley has totaled 84.4 yards per game.
- The former Penn State Nittany Lion reached at least 20 attempts in five of the last seven games. He averages 93.8 yards per contest when receiving 20+ carries.
- According to Pro Football Reference, the Bills have allowed 1,693 rushing yards against RBs (29th).
Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Eagles Projection: 6.5 Rushing Attempts
- PlayerProfiler gives Allen 7.0 carries per game (third), a 22.3% rushing attempt share (fourth), and 2.5 designed runs per contest (fourth), which all rank among the top marks for QBs.
- That volume has continued since Week 13, as the former first-round pick has recorded 8.8 rushing attempts per game in the split.
- The reigning NFL MVP has at least 12 rushing TDs for the third season in a row.
- The Eagles have allowed 328 rushing yards against signal-callers (26th).
Make Eagles vs. Bills Picks on PrizePicks
Which team will boost its seeding on Sunday? Both sides love to lean on the run and just happen to face susceptible rush defenses.
Make your Eagles vs. Bills predictions on PrizePicks for a chance to earn real-money rewards if you’re right. Just pick players and predict More or Less on their projected stats.
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