The ACC has experienced a down year, but it hasn’t lacked surprises. Virginia has led the storylines, finishing the regular season 10-2 with a 7-1 conference record. Despite holding a 7-5 record, Duke managed to finish 6-2 in the ACC, winning a five-way tie to appear in the ACC Championship.
Neither team has won an ACC Championship Game since it was introduced in 2005. Regardless, a new champion will be crowned in Saturday night’s contest, kicking off at 8:00 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium.
Let’s dive into a Duke vs. Virginia prediction and picks for the ACC Championship. Use PrizePicks for a chance to win real money when predicting More or Less on projected player stats.
Duke vs. Virginia Prediction, Preview for ACC Championship
This matchup is far from what most expected for the ACC. Clemson was viewed as head and shoulders above the competition, while Miami (FL) was circled as the next-best option. The Tigers crashed and burned to a 7-5 record, and the Hurricanes lost one too many games with a 6-2 ACC record.
Here we are now with two ACC squads picked outside the top five in the preseason conference rankings. Virginia was selected to finish 14th compared to Duke at sixth. Neither team has been a true contender in this conference for 30 years. A win on Saturday night would truly be historic for either program. Taking it one step further, Virginia could earn a College Football Playoff berth with a win.
As mentioned in the Playbook’s 2025 College Football Playoff Picture, the No. 17 Cavaliers are in line to be the fourth-highest conference champion. Virginia carries a 1.49x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if picked to appear in the CFP.
Duke vs. Virginia Spread, Over/Under for ACC Championship
The Blue Devils and Cavaliers battled on Nov. 15, with Virginia winning 34-17. Frankly, it wasn’t close; the Cavaliers totaled 540 yards, while the Devils totaled 255.
PrizePicks Team Picks lists the Cavaliers as 6.5-point favorites, and they hold a 1.49x payout with an outright win. The Blue Devils would return a 2.5x payout with an upset victory.
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers -6.5
- Total: 57.5
- Game Winner Payout: Virginia 1.49x | Duke 2.5x
Payouts as of Friday, 4:30 p.m. ET and are subject to change.
Duke Blue Devils Preview vs. Virginia
For an offense that’s totaled 33.6 points per game (18th) and 5.9 yards per play (30th), Duke’s aforementioned 17-point showing felt like an anomaly.
The passing attack has led the way with 7.8 yards per passing (45th) and 280.3 passing yards per contest (16th). Duke QB Darian Mensah led the ACC by racking up 3,450 passing yards during the regular season. The Devils' signal-caller posted only 213 passing yards in his clash with the Cavaliers.
Pass protection was a major issue in the previous matchup, as Virginia totaled 4 sacks. According to Pro Football Focus, Duke ranks 26th in pass block grade, and Virginia sits 33rd in pass rush grade. This may be a pretty even matchup, suggesting the Cavaliers’ previous pass rush success could take a step back.
Game on Paper ranks Virginia 17th in expected points added (EPA) per dropback allowed. This is truly a “good on good” matchup with the Blue Devils ranked 20th in EPA per dropback.
The run game could be the X-factor, which would also help Duke’s pass protection. The Blue Devils sit 67th in EPA per rushing attempt and average 4.1 yards per carry (83rd). While the Cavaliers yield only 3.4 yards per rushing attempt (22nd), they're 90th in EPA per try.
Winning the run game could be Duke’s key to victory. The defense allows 4.1 yards per carry (53rd) and 8.7 yards per pass (124th).
Virginia Cavaliers Preview vs. Duke
Cavaliers WR Cam Ross and LT McKale Boley are questionable for Saturday’s bout. Ross’ 459 receiving yards rank third on the team, and Boley protects Virginia QB Chandler Morris’ blind side.
This is where the Cavs were most successful in the previous meeting, totaling 316 passing yards and 9.0 yards per attempt. While Virginia’s 6.9 yards per pass (81st) is nothing to write home about, Duke’s pass defense is about as vulnerable as it gets, ranking 130th in EPA per dropback.
Taking care of the ball will be vital. Morris threw 2 INTs on Nov. 15, and the Blue Devils net 1.7 takeaways per game (18th). Each team ranks in the top 20 for turnover margin; winning that battle was one of the few things that went right for Duke weeks ago.
Virginia’s offense has been best on the ground by totaling 4.4 yards per carry (52nd). Duke defends the run well, holding the opposition to 4.1 yards per attempt (53rd).
This matchup could come down to which offense performs outside its comfort zone. Will the Cavaliers’ iffy passing attack shred Duke once again, or will the Blue Devils find a way to get their inconsistent run game on the right page?
Duke vs. Virginia ACC Championship Picks for PrizePicks
Let's dig into Duke vs. Virginia picks. By predicting More or Less for projected player stats, you can win real money with correct predictions on PrizePicks.
Virginia QB Chandler Morris vs. Duke Projection: 238.5 Pass Yards
As mentioned, Morris enjoyed a field day against Duke (316 passing yards). He has faced four defenses outside the top 100 in EPA per dropback allowed. In this split, the Cavaliers’ QB has posted 283.8 passing yards per contest.
With ideal matchups, Virginia hasn’t been afraid of leaning on Morris. He’s averaging 36.0 passing attempts when facing defenses outside that same top 100. Against top-100 defenses, he averages 29.7 passing attempts.
In Morris’ last three full games, he’s reached at least 260 passing yards twice while averaging 253.3 yards.
PFF credits Morris with 76.5 and 73.8 passing grades in his last two games, his best marks since Week 4.
Duke QB Darian Mensah vs. Virginia Projection: 259.5 Pass Yards
Mensah posted 287.5 passing yards per game during the regular season. He reached 260 passing yards in 9 of 12 games.
Even in his underwhelming showing against Virginia, the sophomore QB still logged 35 passing attempts. The Blue Devils want to air it out, proven by their 54.7% pass play rate (23rd). Mensah has averaged 35.3 passing attempts per game. Duke being an underdog hints at a potentially negative game script, which may require the Devils to speed up the pace by throwing the ball often.
Both teams are in the top 52 in fewest seconds per play and in the top 56 for the most plays per game. The ACC Championship could be an exciting display of passing attacks.
Boasting an excellent 90.1 PFF passing grade, Mensah has been one of the ACC’s best QBs all season. Can he redeem his previous dud against Virginia?
Make Duke vs. #17 Virginia Picks on PrizePicks
History will be made on Saturday night, with either Duke or Virginia winning its first ACC Championship Game. The Cavaliers could take it a step further by earning a College Football Playoff berth.
Revenge should be on the minds of the Blue Devils – especially Mensah, aiming to redeem his prior deflating performance. Virginia will be trying to do what it's done all year: dominate the ACC.
Check out various other Duke vs. Virginia picks on the PrizePicks CFB board. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and win real money if you're right.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state. Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
