The Dolphins and Steelers both look to improve their playoff chances in Pittsburgh on Monday night. The Steelers currently hold the lead in the AFC North, while Miami is two games out in the Wild Card race. The Dolphins and Steelers Week 15 Monday Night Football game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Below, we'll break down our Dolphins-Steelers prediction and Monday Night Football picks for Week 15, including the top player picks on PrizePicks real money NFL game, including Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa and RB De’Von Achane and Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers.
Dolphins vs. Steelers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Dolphins and Steelers meet for the 30th overall time, with the Steelers holding a 15-14 series advantage. The 30 games include four postseason games. Miami has won three of the last five matchups, including the last one in 2022.
Steelers All-Pro LB T.J. Watt underwent surgery Thursday to repair a partially collapsed lung and won’t play on Monday, while Miami’s De’Von Achane, who was injured in Week 14’s win over the Jets is likely to suit up.
Dolphins vs. Steelers Over/Under, Spread
The Steelers enter the Monday Week 15 game as 3.5-point favorites, returning a 1.56x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
The Dolphins are visiting underdogs with a 2.38x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
- Total: 42.5
- Game Winner Payout: Dolphins 2.38x | Steelers 1.53x
Dolphins vs. Steelers Prediction on Over/Under
The total of 42.5 is the fifth-lowest total of the Week 14 slate.
- Last week’s 34-10 win over the Jets ended a stretch of five straight Dolphins games that went under the total.
- Miami is 7-6 to the over this season, with six of the first seven games going over.
- The listed total of 42.5 would be tied for the second-lowest total of any Dolphins game this season, just ahead of Week 13’s vs Saints (scored 38) and tied with last week vs. Jets (scored 44).
- For the season, the Dolphins are averaging 21.6 PPG (22nd) and allowing 22.8 PPG (16th).
- The Steelers are 7-6 to the over this season, with five of the first seven games going over.
- The 42.5 posted total would be the lowest since Week 5 vs. Cleveland (37.5). In the four lowest Steelers totals this season, all four went over.
- The Steelers average 23.7 PPG, which is 15th in the NFL, while they are 27th in total yards at 284.5 yards per game.
- On the defensive side, the Steelers allow 23.5 PPG, 19th in the NFL.
- According to DVOA, the Steelers are 19th in offensive DOVA, while Miami is 24th.
Dolphins vs. Steelers Picks for PrizePicks
Here are three Dolphins vs. Steelers player picks for Week 15 for PrizePicks real money NFL game, including Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa and RB De’Von Achane and Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers.
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Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa Projection vs. Steelers: 195.5 Pass Yards
- Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has failed to hit his player projection in nine of 13 games this season, including each of the last four games.
- 195.5 is the lowest posted passing projection of the season for Tagovailoa, just below his Week 8 198.5, in which he threw for 205 yards. It is also lower than any projection from 2024 season.
- In eight of Tua’s 13 games this season, he has failed to reach 200+ yards passing, including not reaching 175+ yards in any of his last four games (all wins). The four-game stretch without reaching 200 yards is the longest of his career.
- Per FTN Fantasy, Tagovailoa ranks 20th among all QBs in Passing DVOA.
Dolphins RB De’Von Achane Projection vs. Steelers: 79.5 Rush Yards
- Dolphins RB De’Von Achane has hit more on his rushing prop in 10 of 13 games this season, including eight straight games.
- The listed player projection of 79.5 rushing yards is the highest of the season for Achane and higher than any game last season. In Week 11 vs. Washington and last week vs. the Jets, the projection was 78.5 and he ran for more both times.
- He has rushed for 75+ yards in seven of 13 games, hitting 120+ in three of his last four.
- Miami is averaging 166.1 rushing yards per game since Week 10, the best mark in the NFL..
Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers Projection vs. Dolphins: 211.5 Receiving Yards
- Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers has failed to hit his player projection in eight of 13 games this season, including Weeks 9-13, before throwing for more than his 198.5 projection last week.
- The listed player projection of 211.5 passing yards is the Rodgers’ highest since Week 9 vs. Indianapolis.
- Rodgers threw for 284 yards last week vs. Baltimore, the most of his Steelers’ career and most since throwing for 289 yards in Week 15 last season vs. the Jaguars (as a member of the Jets). He also threw for 274 yards in Week 18 last season vs. the Dolphins.
- Rodgers is averaging 197.5 pass yards per game over 12 games this season, ranked 21st in the league.
Make Dolphins vs. Steelers Predictions on PrizePicks
Can the Dolphins continue their playoff push with a fifth straight win? Or will the Steelers stay on top of the tight AFC North? The Dolphins and Steelers Week 15 Monday Night Football game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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