Dolphins vs. Jets Prediction, Picks for NFL Week 14: Tricky Tua Tagovailoa

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa drops back to pass against the New England Patriots.
AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

The Dolphins and Jets are set to square off in the second of their two annual AFC East meetings.

Miami has won three straight and are on the edge of the playoff race, while the Jets are looking for their fourth win in the last six games. This battle between rivals kicks off on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.

Below, we'll break down our Dolphins-Jets prediction and picks for Week 14's Sunday outing, including the top player picks on PrizePicks' real-money NFL game, including Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa and RB De’Von Achane and Jets QB Tyrod Taylor.

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Dolphins-Jets Over/Under Picks, Spread on PrizePicks 

The Dolphins and Jets met in Week 4, with the Dolphins holding on for a 27-21 win. Miami has won 13 of the last 16 matchups, but the Jets won the last one at MetLife Stadium, 32-20, in Week 18 last season. 

The Dolphins enter the Sunday Week 14 game as 2.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.63x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.

The Jets are home underdogs with a 2.17x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Spread: Miami Dolphins -2.5

Total: 42.5

Game Winner Payout: Dolphins 1.63x | Jets 2.17x

Payouts are as of Friday, 1 p.m. ET and are subject to change.

Dolphins vs. Jets Over/Under: 42.5 

The total of 42.5 is tied for the fifth-lowest total of the Week 14 slate. In Week 4, the over/under was 43.5.

  • Five straight Dolphins games have gone under, corresponding with the team winning four of its last five games. 
  • Overall, Miami’s 12 games have been six unders and six overs, with six of the first seven games going over.
  • The listed total of 42.5 would be the second-lowest total of any Dolphins game this year, just ahead of last week’s 41.5 mark (Dolphins-Saints scored 38). 
  • For the season, the Dolphins are averaging 20.6 PPG (24th) and allowing 23.8 PPG (20th).
  • The Jets are right next to the Dolphins on offense, averaging 20.5 PPG (25th). On defense, they allow 26.3 PPG (27th). 
  • In FTN’s DVOA rankings, Miami’s offense is 25th and the Jets' 27th. 
  • Seven of the 12 Jets games have gone over the total. Ten of their games have been listed at 44 or lower.

Dolphins vs. Jets Picks for PrizePicks

Here are three Dolphins vs. Jets player picks for Week 14 for PrizePicks' real-money NFL game, including Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa and RB De’Von Achane and Jets QB Tyrod Taylor.

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa Projection vs. Jets: 211.5 Pass Yards

  • Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has failed to hit his player projection in eight of 12 games this season. 
  • 211.5 is the second-lowest posted passing projection of the season for Tagovailoa. In Week 8, he was listed at 198.5 and threw for 205 yards.
  • In seven of Tagovailoa's 12 games this year, he has failed to reach 200+ yards passing, including not reaching 175+ yards in any of his last three.
  • Per Pro Football Focus, Tagovailoa ranks 34th in average depth of target and 40th in time to throw among all QBs.     
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Dolphins RB De’Von Achane Projection vs. Jets: 78.5 Rush Yards

  • Dolphins RB De’Von Achane has exceeded his rushing projection in nine of 12 games this season, including seven straight contests. 
  • The listed player projection of 78.5 rushing yards is tied of the highest of the season for Achane. In Week 11 vs. Washington, it was also 78.5, and he ran for 120 yards.
  • Achane has rushed for 75+ yards in six of 12 games, hitting 120+ in each of his last three. 
  • The Dolphins' lead back has rushed for 1,034 yards, third-best in the NFL, and his 5.6 yards per rush also ranks third.

Jets QB Tyrod Taylor Projection vs. Dolphins: 178.5 Pass Yards

  • Jets QB Tyrod Taylor has failed to reach his player projection for passing yards in two of his three starts.
  • The 178.5 listed player projection is the lowest of the season for Taylor.
  • In his five appearances this season (two not being starts), Taylor has thrown for more than 175 yards twice and fewer than 175 yards three times.
  • As a team, the Jets didn't reach 175+ passing yards in seven games and rank dead last in the league with 146.8 yards per game.   

Make Week 14 Football Picks on PrizePicks

Will the Dolphins and Jets continue to show improved offenses, or will early-season struggles match what the Week 4 game gave us? As the NFL season enters its 14th week, there's no better place to get real-money action with your NFL predictions than on PrizePicks.

There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the NFL board, so you can make predictions on whatever you'd like — from yards to field goals. Just pick at least two players and pick More or Less on their projected stats.

Check out the Playbook throughout the NFL season for more NFL predictions for your PrizePicks and NFL DFS Lineups.


Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state. Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.

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about the author

David Bearman spent 18 years with ESPN in their Stats & Information Department and overseeing their betting content. From 2023-25, he served as Chief Content Officer of Pro Football Network, overseeing all content, including coverage of Super Bowls 58 and 59. He is also the Founder of Betting with Bearman, a 3x a week betting newsletter and weekly podcast on Bleav Podcast Network.

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