Week 18 has plenty at stake, from divisional titles to playoff seeds and premium draft picks. The New England Patriots (13-3) clinched the AFC East a week ago but are still fighting for a better postseason spot against the Miami Dolphins (7-9). Sunday’s game kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX, taking place in Gillette Stadium.
The Dolphins lost 33-27 in a back-and-forth clash with New England in Week 2. Will the AFC East rivals cap the regular season with another competitive contest?
Let’s make a Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction and picks while highlighting player projections and trends to watch from PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
With a win and a Broncos loss, New England would secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC. A loss and a Jaguars win would drop them to the third spot. With PrizePicks Team Picks listing Denver as 13.5-point favorites against the Chargers, New England staying put feels like the most probable outcome.
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel said he expected healthy players to be active — New England will not rest starters. LG Jared Wilson (concussion) will be out, however, while the defense’s front seven features three absences: NT Khyiris Tonga (foot), EDGE Harold Landry III (knee), and LB Robert Spillane (ankle).
Miami has a lengthy injury report and could be without as many as eight starters. S Minkah Fitzpatrick (calf) is out, while RB De’Von Achane (shoulder) is doubtful.
Starting WR Jaylen Waddle (ribs), C Aaron Brewer (neck), RT Austin Jackson (back/groin), DE Chop Robinson (concussion), DT Jordan Phillips (ankle), and LB Jordyn Brooks (hamstring) are all questionable.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Over/Under, Spread
Boasting a 4-1 record in the AFC East, the Patriots are significant 10.5-point favorites to cap their divisional dominance with a bang, according to PrizePicks Team Picks.
Following Week 2’s 60-point combined output, could Sunday’s 45.5 total be set up for an over?
- Spread: New England Patriots -10.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Game Winner Payout: Dolphins 5x | Patriots 1.13x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction on Over/Under
Miami managed to rack up 27 points and 6.9 yards per play in Week 2’s clash, but this is a different team. WR Tyreek Hill was active for the previous meeting, before he suffered a season-ending knee injury. Furthermore, Miami could be without its top two skill position players.
QB Tua Tagovailoa remains benched, meaning rookie signal-caller Quinn Ewers will make his third start in Week 18. Over two games led by the former Texas Longhorn, Miami posted 20.5 points per game and 6.1 yards per play. That’s improved efficiency compared to 5.5 yards per play on the season (14th).
A 51.8% rush-play rate was at the forefront in the two-game split, leaning on Achane’s 82.0 yards per game. For context, Miami sports a 45.5% rush-play rate on the season (12th).
Facing the Patriots’ defense is already a tough task, limiting opponents to 19.4 PPG (fifth). However, New England cedes -0.02 EPA per rush (tied for 17th), per SumerSports. If Achane is available, the Dolphins may find success. His absence, paired with two injuries on the starting O-line, could mean tough sledding.
Led by 8.8 yards per pass (first), the Pats' offense could torch Miami once more. The 'Fins surrender 5.7 yards per play (25th), 7.5 yards per throw (26th), and 0.0 EPA per dropback (tied for 24th).
After recording 33.5 PPG over the last four contests, New England has momentum. On the other side, questions around the Dolphins’ QB and run game could signal a tough day on the road.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Picks for Week 18
Considering the injuries at hand, let’s look at Dolphins QB Quinn Ewers’ projections at PrizePicks. Plus, Patriots WR Stefon Diggs could thrive against a weak secondary.
Dolphins QB Quinn Ewers vs. Patriots Projection: 196.5 Passing Yards
- Miami backup RB Jaylen Wright totals 4.6 yards per carry and racked up 107 rushing yards in Week 14’s start. Might the Dolphins stay with their run-heavy game script?
- Pro Football Focus ranks the 'Fins 29th in pass block grade, and ailments on the line may only magnify that weakness.
- Ewers has posted 260 and 172 passing yards in his starts with a low volume of 26 passes per game.
- The rookie signal-caller was most efficient in last week’s outing, which included only 22 attempts. Perhaps Miami will look to replicate that success by limiting his workload.
Patriots WR Stefon Diggs vs. Dolphins Projection: 50.5 Receiving Yards
- From Week 12 to 15, Diggs averaged just 3.7 targets, 2.7 catches, and 24.0 receiving yards per game.
- Considering his season-long averages of 6.2 targets, 5.1 receptions, and 60.6 receiving yards, this felt bound to increase. Since Week 16, New England’s top target has netted 8.0 targets, 7.5 catches, and 119.5 receiving yards per game.
- PlayerProfiler emphasizes his trustworthy volume, proven by a 26.1% target rate (16th).
- According to SumerSports, Diggs' 82.83% catch rate is first among all WRs with 250+ routes run.
Make Dolphins vs. Patriots Picks on PrizePicks
As 10.5-point favorites, the Patriots might just roll on Sunday. Will it be enough to boost their seeding? Keep an eye on the injury report, as key players could be absent for the Dolphins.
Call your shots on PrizePicks for a chance to earn real-money rewards if you’re right. Just pick players and predict More or Less on their projected stats. You can also make picks on the winner, spread, over/under, or futures on teams to make the playoffs on PrizePicks Team Picks — now available in 30 states.
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