Christmas Day is finally here, and so is a set of intriguing divisional battles in the NFL world. The first of three games sees the 6-8-1 Cowboys hit the road to face the 4-11 Commanders.
Thursday’s matchup between NFC East foes kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET on Netflix, live from the nation’s capital. With both squads eliminated from the playoff picture, this outing could have seeding implications for something else: the 2026 NFL Draft.
Below, we’ll break down our Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction and picks for the Christmas Day Game. Use PrizePicks NFL to follow player projections and make picks for real rewards if you’re right.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Thursday marks the 132nd time the Cowboys and Commanders will square off in their series. With Dallas owning a huge 80-49-2 series lead, including a 7-3 record in the last 10 meetings, perhaps Washington can deliver a lump of coal for Christmas and turn the tide.
Injuries, as expected given how late it is in the season, could play a role on Thursday. For Dallas, WR Ryan Flournoy has been held back this week by a knee issue. On Washington’s side, QB Marcus Mariota (right hand/quad) is nursing multiple ailments. Backup QB Josh Johnson is starting.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Over/Under, Spread
The Cowboys enter Thursday’s game as 7.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.26x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Commanders are home underdogs with a 3.44x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Dallas Cowboys -7.5
- Over/Under: 51.5
- Game Winner Payout: Cowboys 1.26x | Commanders 3.44x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you prepared for Cowboys vs. Commanders.
- The Cowboys are a middling 7-8 against the spread this season. The Commanders, on the other hand, are tied for the worst record in the sport at 5-10.
- Since 2020, Dallas is 21-13 ATS in NFC East contests. Washington is dead last in the division with a 14-19-2 mark.
- Under first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer, the Cowboys’ offense is second in yards and fifth in scoring.
- That offensive success has come at a cost, however, as Dallas ranks second-to-last in scoring defense.
- The Commanders have fallen from fifth in total points last season all the way to 24th entering Week 17’s play.
- There’s been some defensive regression, too, as Washington is 27th in scoring and 20th in yards after being 18th and seventh, respectively, in 2024.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Christmas Day Game Picks
Here are three Cowboys vs. Commanders Christmas Day Game picks. Some top same-game PrizePicks projections to consider include QB Dak Prescott and WRs CeeDee Lamb and Terry McLaurin.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott vs. Commanders Projection: 273.5 Pass Yards
- Prescott leads the NFL in both pass attempts (552) and completions (378) this season, averaging 278.3 yards per contest.
- According to SumerSports, the former fourth-round pick has racked up more pass EPA (92.82) than all but four QBs.
- In 14 career games against the Commanders, Prescott is 12-2 with a 108.2 passer rating, 34 total TDs, and 5 INTs.
- Washington has yielded the second-most passing TDs (30) and sixth-most passing yards (3,843) to opposing QBs.
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb vs. Commanders Projection: 81.5 Rec Yards
- Lamb averages 85.6 receiving yards per game. In his last five outings, that figure is up to 94.
- Among all WRs with 100+ routes in 2025, per SumerSports, Lamb is third with 2.56 yards per route run.
- Washington allows the ninth-most receiving yards to the WR spot at 2,380.
- According to Jefe’s Handiwork, the Commanders’ defense is last in EPA per pass and fourth-worst in passing success rate.
Commanders WR Terry McLaurin vs. Cowboys Projection: 51.5 Rec Yards
- McLaurin nets 57.8 receiving yards a week, and his 15.9 yards per catch is a new career-high threshold.
- In his last four games, McLaurin’s average is up to 64.8 yards. He got 7 targets and 4 receptions per contest in that span.
- Via NFL Pro, Scary Terry’s 14.6 air yards per target is sixth-deepest among WRs with 40+ targets.
- No defense has afforded WRs more yards than the Cowboys this season (2,614). The next-closest team is the Colts at 2,551.
Make Cowboys vs. Commanders Picks on PrizePicks
When Dallas and Washington duke it out, there will be plenty of opportunities for Cowboys vs. Commanders Christmas Day Game picks. The NFL Week 17 slate also leaves the door open for several other player projections and much more.
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