NFL International action heads to Spain for the first time ever, as the Washington Commanders (3-7) and Miami Dolphins (3-7) meet at the iconic Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid on Sunday (9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network).
Washington enters on a five-game losing streak, collapsing and battling a brutal wave of injuries, including starting QB Jayden Daniels and WR Terry McLaurin. Backup QB Marcus Mariota steps in again, hoping to stabilize an offense that’s struggled to generate explosive plays.
Miami, meanwhile, snapped a skid with a convincing 30-13 win over Buffalo last week. RB De’Von Achane has become the heartbeat of the offense, topping 90 scrimmage yards in four straight games and erupting for 174 rushing yards in Week 10. With star WR Tyreek Hill out for the season, Achane and WR Jaylen Waddle have taken center stage in HC Mike McDaniel’s reshaped attack.
Below, we’ll break down our Commanders vs. Dolphins prediction and picks for Week 11's NFL Madrid Game, including the top picks to target on PrizePicks.
Commanders vs. Dolphins Prediction, Preview for Week 11
Each of the last five Commanders losses has come by at least three TDs. The offense ranks in the league’s middle tier, and the defense has slipped into the bottom in most categories. A lack of consistent availability has made it challenging for Washington to establish rhythm.
Miami appears to be trending in a slightly more positive direction. The Dolphins have leaned on their run game behind Achane, and the offense has been working toward more balance. Their team rankings are modest overall, but certain situational numbers have helped them stay competitive. The neutral field in Madrid could also create a unique tone for both teams as they adjust to unfamiliar surroundings.
Turnovers have been an issue for both sides. Washington is at -6 and Miami is at -7, so either team might see meaningful swings if they protect the ball better than usual. With both rosters dealing with injuries, the outcome could hinge more on which supporting players can elevate.
Washington Commanders Preview vs. Dolphins
Washington arrives in Madrid hoping to slow down a rough stretch that has tested the depth of the roster. That pushes the offense back into the hands of Mariota, who has stepped in during Daniels’ absence. The passing game has had trouble finding consistency, although the run game has shown competitiveness at times.
The defense is dealing with significant attrition. LB Bobby Wagner continues to produce at a high level with 99 tackles on the season, and his next stop would make him only the second player since 2000 to reach 100 tackles in 14 straight years. Even with Wagner’s production, the Commanders have had difficulty slowing down opponents.
Multiple defensive backs are out, and DT Daron Payne is serving a suspension, which further stretches a unit already asked to play beyond its comfort zone.
Washington is allowing 28 points per game and ranks near the bottom in pass defense. With the offense missing several contributors, the Commanders may need to rely on Mariota’s mobility and a controlled run-game approach to keep pace while hoping the defense can limit Miami’s explosive plays.
Miami Dolphins Preview vs. Commanders
Miami continues to adjust without Hill. Achane has been one of the league’s most productive RBs this season with 780 rushing yards. His efficiency has helped stabilize the offense, and the coaching staff has integrated Jaylen Wright and Ollie Gordon to create a rotation that attacks different angles.
QB Tua Tagovailoa has shown strong situational efficiency, especially in the red zone, where he ranks among the league leaders in completion rate and passer rating. Waddle has taken on a larger role, producing 485 yards since Week 5. Miami’s passing game may not have the same ceiling without Hill, but it still offers the ability to generate chunk plays when defenses overcommit to the run.
Defensively, the Dolphins are working through injuries but have performed well in certain spots. Their red-zone defense ranks eighth in the league, and they have shown improvement in short-yardage and goal-line stands. LB Chop Robinson’s return from concussion protocol could add needed speed to the front seven, and several defensive backs may be trending toward availability after missing last week.
Miami’s pass defense sits in the league’s upper half, and that could matter against a Washington offense missing its top receivers.
Commanders vs. Dolphins Prediction, Picks for NFL Madrid Game
Below are three top Commanders vs. Dolphins same-game picks for the NFL Madrid matchup. Commanders QB Marcus Mariota, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, and Dolphins RB De’Von Achane are some PrizePicks player projections to consider.
Commanders QB Marcus Mariota vs. Dolphins Projection – 25.5 Rushing Yards
- Mariota brings one clear advantage to this undermanned Washington offense: his legs. With Daniels out and the WR room decimated, the coaching staff has leaned into Mariota’s mobility as a pressure valve.
- Miami ranks 24th in total defense and 26th against the run, and its pass rush often creates open escape lanes rather than clean sacks — a profile mobile QBs can exploit.
- With Washington’s offensive line banged up and Miami potentially bringing extra bodies to choke off the ground game, Mariota could be flushed from the pocket frequently.
- Mariota ranks 19th among all QBs in rush EPA (4.13), per SumerSports.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. Commanders Projection – 233.5 Passing Yards
- Tagovailoa’s raw passing volume has cooled, but this is a vulnerable matchup. Washington ranks 31st against the pass and 30th in total defense while also allowing 28 points per game.
- Miami’s improved running game with Achane, Wright, and Gordon could force the Commanders into heavier boxes and more single-high looks — exactly the coverages Tagovailoa and Waddle could exploit.
- The Dolphins rank seventh in short-yardage third-down conversions (68.2%) and eighth in red-zone defense, setting up extra possessions and shorter fields. More drives and sustained series mean more dropbacks for Tua.
- Even without Hill, Waddle’s post–Week 5 surge gives his QB a legit WR1, and this bout may turn into a high-scoring shootout.
Dolphins RB De’Von Achane vs. Commanders Projection – 78.5 Rushing Yards
- Achane has become Miami’s best offensive weapon with a 5.5 yards-per-carry average (third).
- Washington ranks 23rd against the run and has been shredded during its five-game losing streak, struggling with tackling angles and gap integrity.
- Washington is allowing 4.6 yards per carry, the sixth-worst mark in the league.
- Achane enters the week with the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL and is coming off his second 100+ yard performance in five games.
Sunday’s NFL Madrid Game showcases two teams dealing with significant injuries and searching for stability.
Washington’s limited availability on offense and issues on defense could create challenges, while Miami’s run-first approach and situational efficiency give them a possible advantage if they stay balanced.
With PrizePicks, you can transform this international matchup into an opportunity by making picks for players like Marcus Mariota, Tua Tagovailoa, and De’Von Achane. Just choose More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you're right.
