The Chiefs and Broncos, AFC West rivals, meet on Sunday in Denver in a game that could shape the AFC playoff picture.
The game will feature QBs Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix, as well as two of the best defenses in the NFL. The divisional battle kicks off on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS.
Below, we'll break down our Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction and picks for NFL Week 11, including the top player projections on PrizePicks' real-money NFL game for Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and WR Rashee Rice and Broncos QB Bo Nix.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction, NFL Week 11 Picks
The Chiefs and Broncos meet for the first of two meetings this season, with the second one coming in Week 17 on Thursday Night Football.
The Chiefs won 16 in a row in the series from 2016-23, while the Broncos have won two of the last three matchups. The teams have combined to win the last 16 AFC West titles.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview vs. Broncos
- During the 2023 and 2024 seasons, the Chiefs won an NFL-record 17 consecutive one-score games. This year, they're 0-4 in one-score affairs.
- After averaging 315.6 yards per game in their first three games, K.C. has averaged 397.3 yards in the last six. WR Xavier Worthy returned to the lineup in Week 4, and WR Rashee Rice returned in Week 7.
- The Chiefs are eighth in the league in per-game scoring (26.1 PPG) and are fourth in scoring defense, holding opponents to 17.7 PPG.
- K.C. trails Denver by 2.5 games in the AFC West entering this matchup. The Chiefs have won the last nine division titles.
Denver Broncos Preview vs. Chiefs
- The Broncos have won seven straight games, their longest winning streak since starting the 2015 season 7-0. The last time the Broncos won eight in a row was when they won the final 11 games of the 2012 campaign.
- Denver has been solid on both sides of the ball, as their offense is 13th in total yards and ninth in rushing yards (128.6 per game).
- Denver’s defense leads the NFL in yards per play, allowing just 4.34.
- The Broncos' 17.3 points per game yielded is third-best in the NFL, behind the Texans and Rams. They have 46 sacks through 10 games, the most in a team's first 10 contests since the 1989 Vikings (50).
- RB J.K. Dobbins is out this week with a foot injury, meaning rookie RJ Harvey steps up. Harvey has seen 29.1% of the Broncos' snaps. Denver's snap counts through 10 weeks: Dobbins at 340 (50.8%), Harvey at 195, and Tyler Badie at 115 (17.2%).
Chiefs vs. Broncos Picks for NFL DFS & PrizePicks
Here are three Chiefs and Broncos player picks for Week 11 for PrizePicks' real-money NFL game, including Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and WR Rashee Rice and Broncos QB Bo Nix.
Pick More or Less on these projections on PrizePicks — plus thousands more — to win real money this NFL season.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Projection vs. Broncos: 264.5 Pass Yards
- After throwing for 1 passing TD in each of the first three games, Mahomes has multiple TD passes in four of his last six games, totaling 14 TDs over this span.
- Mahomes has passed for 250+ yards in six straight games after averaging 223 passing yards in the first three. The last time he had 250+ in five straight games was in 2022, when he did it seven times consecutively.
- Mahomes' 17 TD passes are tied for seventh in the NFL.
- The K.C. QB’s 98.2 passer rating sits 11th in the league.
Broncos QB Bo Nix Projection vs. Chiefs: 29.5 Pass Attempts
- After not reaching 220+ yards passing in his first three games of the year, Nix did it in four of five games from Weeks 4-8 and hasn't reached it again since.
- Nix has thrown 1+ TD passes in 19 consecutive games. Twelve of the 19 games have included 2+ TD passes, with a career-high 4 in Week 8 vs. Dallas.
- Nix has hit 30+ pass attempts in seven of 10 games.
- The Denver QB’s passer rating is 85.7 — 23rd among 29 qualified QBs.
Chiefs WR Rashee Rice Projection vs. Broncos: 74.5 Receiving Yards
- Rice has recorded 75+ receiving yards in his last two games (he's played three this season) and in each full game he played last season.
- Rice averages 5.6 receptions per game in his 22-outing NFL career.
- Rice is averaging 8.7 targets per game, good for 14th-best in the NFL.
- The Chiefs' star WR has 3 TDs since returning from injury and suspension.
Make Week 11 NFL Picks on PrizePicks
Can the red-hot Broncos win their eighth straight game and take complete control of the AFC West, or will the Chiefs get a step closer to their 10th straight division title and close the gap?
As the NFL season enters its 11th week, there's no better place to get real-money action with your NFL predictions than PrizePicks. There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the NFL board, so you can make predictions on whatever you'd like — from yards to field goals. Just pick at least two players and predict More or Less on their projected stats.
Check out the Playbook throughout the NFL season for analysis and more.
