The No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) head to Foxborough to face the No. 2 New England Patriots (14-3) on Sunday Night Football during Wild Card Weekend. Kickoff for SNF is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC.
New England has been the Cinderella story, winning 14 games. Patriots QB Drake Maye looks to lead his team to its first playoff win since 2019 when he takes on QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers, who have lost back-to-back games.
Below, we’ll dive into a Chargers vs. Patriots prediction and picks for Sunday Night Football’s Wild Card game. Make picks on player projections on PrizePicks and earn real money if you're right.
You can also predict NFL postseason winners, spreads, and over/unders on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 30 states.
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Chargers vs. Patriots Prediction, Over/Under, Spread
Sunday night marks the fifth all-time playoff meeting between the Chargers and Patriots. New England leads the overall series 27-17-2.
Unfortunately for the Chargers, they will face one of the NFL's top offenses with key defensive pieces banged up. S Kendall Williamson (ankle) has been ruled out, while LB Del'Shawn Phillips (hamstring) and DB Elijah Molden (hamstring) remain questionable.
For New England, OLB Harold Landry (knee) is questionable after being limited in practice all week, while CB Alex Austin (wrist) and DT Khyiris Tonga (foot) have been ruled out.
The spread has settled at 3.5 points, with New England as the home favorite and the total at 46.5. The Patriots and Chargers did not meet during the regular season, though Los Angeles dominated in their last encounter in late 2024, winning 40-7 in Foxborough.
Chargers vs. Patriots Over/Under Spread
The Chargers enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point road underdogs, returning 2.56x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Patriots are home favorites with a 1.47x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: New England Patriots -3.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Game Winner Payout: Chargers 2.56x | Patriots 1.47x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Chargers vs. Patriots Prediction on Spread
- New England went 11-5-1 ATS (68.8%) this season, third-best in the NFL
- Los Angeles finished 8-8-1 ATS (50.0%), one of the league’s more inconsistent teams.
- The Patriots went 6-3 in one-score games, while the Chargers were 5-5 in contests decided by seven points or fewer.
- The Chargers rank third in third-down offense (45.8%), while New England counters with the 12th-ranked third-down defense (38.7%), setting up a key money-down battle.
- New England finished the regular season second in scoring on offense and fourth on defense. Los Angeles was 20th and ninth, respectively.
Chargers vs. Patriots NFL Sunday Night Football Picks for Wild Card
Here are the top Chargers vs. Patriots Sunday Night Football Wild Card game picks on PrizePicks’ real-money NFL game, including projections for QBs Drake Maye and QB Justin Herbert.
Patriots QB Drake Maye vs. Chargers Projection: 241.5 Pass Yards
- Maye averages 258.5 passing yards per game (YPG) and has passed for 241+ yards in 12 of his 17 games.
- The Chargers cede 179.9 passing YPG (fifth-fewest in the NFL), but they allowed Cowboys QB Dak Prescott and Texans QB C.J. Stroud to throw for over 241 yards in two out of their last three.
- The second-year signal caller is third among QBs with 250+ passes in average depth of target (9.51, via SumerSports). He leads the sport with a 72% completion percentage, a testament to his elite efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have exceeded 241 passing yards against Los Angeles four times.
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Chargers QB Justin Herbert vs. Patriots Projection: 221.5 Pass Yards
- Herbert averages 232.9 passing YPG and has cleared 221.5 yards in nine of 16 starts.
- Even against a Patriots defense allowing just 193.5 passing YPG (fifth-fewest), Herbert has a path to volume. New England allowed QBs Geno Smith (Raiders), Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins), and Cam Ward (Titans) to pass for 250+ yards.
- Herbert's 64 deep ball attempts and 4,011 air yards (both 10th-most) highlight his willingness to push the ball downfield in offensive coordinator Greg Roman's scheme.
- New England has yielded 221+ passing yards in seven games.
Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson vs. Chargers Projection: 54.5 Rush Yards
- Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson averages 53.6 rushing YPG and has topped 54 rushing yards in eight games.
- Los Angeles ranks eighth against the run, allowing 105.4 rushing YPG, but opposing backs have topped 54.5 yards against them 12 times.
- The rookie has emerged as the focal point (46.2% snap share) of an offense that averages 128.9 rushing YPG (sixth-most), with Henderson fetching 10.6 carries per game.
- Over their last five games, opposing backs facing the Chargers have rushed for more than 55 yards four times, including 126 by the Eagles in Week 14 and 108 by the Texans in Week 17.
Make Chargers vs. Patriots Wild Card Picks on PrizePicks
This Chargers vs. Patriots Sunday Night Football Wild Card matchup presents plenty of opportunities to put your NFL knowledge to the test. Maye and Henderson will aim to keep the Patriots' offense rolling, meanwhile Herbert and the Chargers chase their first playoff win since 2019.
You can make your Chargers vs. Patriots picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 30 states.
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