California travels to Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Va., tonight for an ACC matchup against Virginia Tech (2-5) in a Friday night college football showdown.
The Cal Golden Bears are looking to build on a gritty 21-18 win over North Carolina, while the Hokies aim to snap a two-game skid and find consistency on offense.
Below, we’ll break down our Cal vs. Virginia Tech prediction and pick for Friday night, and highlight the top PrizePicks player picks for this nationally televised matchup at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
With every college football game this season, you can get in on the real-money action on PrizePicks — pick your players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if your calls are right.
Cal vs. Virginia Tech Prediction, Preview: Friday, Oct. 24
Here’s a closer look at our Cal vs. Virginia Tech prediction and breakdown for Friday night’s ACC showdown.
Cal Preview vs. Virginia Tech
Cal (5-2) continues to find ways to win close games. The Golden Bears held off North Carolina 21-18 last week behind steady quarterback play and timely defense — its fifth win in seven outings.
Freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has brought consistency to the offense, throwing for 1,696 yards, 10 TDs, and 7 INTs on a 60.9% completion rate. Cal’s passing game ranks 56th nationally (241.7 YPG), but the run game has lagged behind at just 81.2 yards per contest (133rd).
Still, Cal’s underlying metrics show a more efficient unit than the raw numbers suggest. The Bears rank 75th in Net EPA/play (+0.02) and 107th in offensive success rate (39.0%), per Game On Paper. Their balanced approach and situational efficiency have helped them stay competitive, even without a dominant rushing attack.
Cal ranks 37th in total defense (345.7 YPG) and 61st in scoring defense (25.0 PPG). They’ve been particularly stingy through the air — 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback (-0.16) — and are tied for 23rd in defensive 3rd Down Success (36.0).
If the defense holds firm and Sagapolutele limits mistakes, which could help Cal notch a sixth win and keep pace in the ACC.
Virginia Tech Preview
It’s been an up-and-down season for Virginia Tech (2-5), who enter Friday night’s game after a 35-20 road loss to Georgia Tech. Injuries have played a major role, as the Hokies listed 20 players out in that contest, and offensive consistency has been hard to come by.
QB Kyron Drones continues to lead the Hokies offense, throwing for 1,397 yards, 11 TDs, and 5 INTs while adding 83 rushing yards and a score last week. He’s been one of the few bright spots for an offense averaging 342.2 total yards (95th) and 20.5 points per game (101st).
Virginia Tech’s efficiency numbers reflect those struggles. The Hokies sit 52nd in offensive EPA/play (0.07) and 48th in success rate (44.2%), per Game On Paper. The Hokies haven’t fared much better defensively. They’re giving up 412.0 yards per game (94th) and 33.2 points (111th), with one of the worst secondaries in the country by EPA — 133rd nationally in total EPA (63.06).
If Drones can create explosive plays and extend drives with his legs, Virginia Tech could keep this one close. But facing a Cal defense that thrives on discipline and tackling in space is a tall task.
Cal vs. Virginia Tech Picks for Friday Night CFB
Here are the PrizePicks picks to target for Friday night’s ACC matchup between Cal (5-2) and Virginia Tech (2-5).
Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Projection: 233.5 Passing Yards
- Freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has thrown for 230+ yards in five of seven games, averaging 242.3 passing yards this season with a 10-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio.
- Virginia Tech’s defense ranks 83rd nationally in passing yards allowed (237.0YPG) and 134th in EPA per dropback (0.34), struggling to limit explosive plays through the air.
- Opponents are averaging 8.9 yards per attempt (9th-most) against the Hokies.
- Two out of their last three games they have given up 240+ passing yards.
- Consistent volume and downfield efficiency give Sagapolutele a strong statistical profile entering this matchup.
Virginia Tech QB Kyron Drones Projection: 189.5 Passing Yards
- Drones is coming off a 181-yard passing performance, even with the benefit of a pass-happy game script against Georgia Tech on Oct. 11.
- He’s 32nd in total pass attempts (220) and 22nd in total dropbacks (258), per PFF.
- Cal’s defense allows 211.8 passing yards per game (46th) and ranks 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback (-0.16), effectively limiting explosive passes.
- His dual-threat usage continues to drive Virginia Tech’s offensive identity, especially in close games.
- Still, he might be forced to air it out early against another tough opponent. VT has trailed by an average of 12 first-half points over its last two games.
Cal RB Kendrick Raphael Projection: 82.5 Rushing Yards
- Cal RB Kendrick Raphael leads the Bears with 16.4 carries and 70.7 rushing yards per game, totaling 5 TDs this season.
- He has topped 80 rushing yards in three of seven games, showcasing consistent efficiency behind Cal's offensive line.
- Virginia Tech’s run defense sits 99th nationally (175.0 YPG) and 84th in success rate allowed (40.9%), per Game On Paper.
- Cal’s rushing offense has been underwhelming to this poit ranking 112th in EPA per play (-0.08), despite Raphael averaging 4.3 yards per carry.
Make Your Cal vs. Virginia Tech Picks on PrizePicks
Both teams enter this matchup with something to prove. Cal’s balanced efficiency and red zone edge make it the safer side to back, but they must travel across the country on a short week. On the other side, Kyron Drones’ dual-threat ability keeps the door open for a sneaky shootout.
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Just pick your college football players, predict More or Less on their stat projections, and win real money if you’re right!
