The 7-8 Buccaneers and 6-9 Dolphins collide in an in-state showdown in Week 17. Both teams enter this matchup with different trajectories, as the Buccaneers are fighting for their playoff lives while the Dolphins are playing to salvage a lost season.
The Sunshine State clash kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX from Hard Rock Stadium.
Tampa Bay is a game back from the NFC South-leading Panthers and enters Week 17 with its backs against the wall. Luckily for them, they face a Miami squad that just allowed QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals to amass 407 total yards of offense in a 45-21 outcome in Week 16.
Below, we’ll dive into a Buccaneers vs. Dolphins prediction and picks for Sunday's game. Use PrizePicks NFL to make picks for player projections in Week 17 and beyond.
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
This will be the 13th all-time meeting between these two Florida squads. The Bucs hold the slight 7-5 edge in the series, with this weekend being a do-or-die for them as they look to make that last playoff push.
The Buccaneers have some notable players who have appeared on the injury report, with two (WR Chris Godwin and LT Tristan Wirfs) not practicing in any capacity early this week.
As for the Dolphins, aside from benching QB Tua Tagovailoa last week, starting S Minkah Fitzpatrick (calf) missed plenty of practice time during the week.
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Over/Under Spread
The Buccaneers enter Sunday’s game as 6.5-point road favorites, returning 1.38x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Dolphins are home underdogs with a 2.94x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Game Winner Payout: Buccaneers 1.38x | Dolphins 2.94x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Prediction on Spread
- Through 15 games, the Buccaneers are one of the worst against-the-spread teams in the NFL at 5-10 (33.3%), tied with Baltimore for the worst ATS record.
- Tampa Bay's -30 point differential through Week 17 ranks among the worst of any team currently in playoff contention.
- Miami is 7-8 against the spread (46.7%), but as a home underdog, they've been more competitive at 2-2.
- The Dolphins' third-down offense ranks just third-worst in the NFL at 36.97%, severely limiting their ability to extend drives.
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins NFL Week 17 Picks
Here are the top Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Week 17 picks on PrizePicks’ real-money NFL game, including QB Baker Mayfield and WR Mike Evans.
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield vs. Dolphins Projection: 225.5 Pass Yards
- Mayfield averages 209.6 passing yards per game, but he has passed for 226+ yards in seven of his 16 games.
- The Dolphins' pass defense ranks 14th in the league, allowing 209.1 passing YPG, yet has allowed 215 YPG in their last three.
- Mayfield nets 8.2 air yards per attempt (12th-best), demonstrating efficiency pushing the ball downfield.
- Miami allowed 313 passing yards, 4 TDs, and a 78.1% completion percentage to Burrow last weekend and has surrendered 225+ yards in seven games.
- The Buccaneers' desperation for a playoff berth could suggest a game script that favors passing volume for Mayfield in a must-win situation.
Buccaneers WR Mike Evans vs. Dolphins Projection: 59.5 Receiving Yards
- Evans' production has climbed in his last two games since returning from injury, as he combined for 163 yards.
- Opposing WRs against the Dolphins average 9.9 catches for 116.1 YPG. Bengals WRs in Week 16 caught 13 passes for 183 yards and 1 TD.
- Evans commands a massive 25.9% target share with a 13.0 average depth of target.
- The Dolphins deploy zone coverage at a 71.9% rate. Against zone coverage, Evans produces 1.89 yards per route run with a 29.3% target clip.
Dolphins RB De’Von Achane vs. Buccaneers Projection: 73.5 Rush Yards
- Dolphins RB De’Von Achane averages 84.5 rushing YPG (third-most in NFL), maintaining elite efficiency at 5.8 YPC (leading all RBs).
- Tampa Bay's run defense has allowed 117 rushing YPG over its last three contests.
- The Buccaneers have surrendered 4.8+ yards per carry, allowing Bengals RBs to average 5.1 YPC in Week 16.
- Achane is 15th in the NFL with 220 carries and has recorded 74+ rushing yards in eight of 15 games.
Make Buccaneers vs. Dolphins NFL Week 17 Picks on PrizePicks
This Buccaneers vs. Dolphins NFL Week 17 matchup presents plenty of opportunities to put your NFL knowledge to the test.
Mayfield and Evans aim to get the Buccaneers' offense back on track against a struggling Miami defense. On the other side, Achane and the Dolphins try to spoil the Bucs' hopes of making the postseason.
With PrizePicks, you can make Buccaneers vs. Dolphins predictions and earn real money by calling your shots. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash out if you're right.
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