The NFL gifed us a Christmas night showcase between the Denver Broncos (12-3) and the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) at Arrowhead Stadium, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
The Broncos have already punched their playoff ticket and remain in the hunt for the AFC’s top seed, even after stumbling at home to Jacksonville in Week 16.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs enter this holiday matchup with the worst record of the QB Patrick Mahomes era, having lost four straight.
With Denver eyeing the top seed in the AFC — and home-field advantage — and Kansas City trying to salvage momentum at the end of a disappointing season, every snap matters.
Below, we'll break down our Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction on the spread for the Christmas night showdown with PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money by picking on teams to win, spreads, and totals in every NFL game.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction on Spread
The Broncos and Chiefs meet for their 131st regular-season game, with Kansas City holding a 73-57 lifetime record, but have lost two straight against their divisional rivals.
Denver comes into the game as 13.5-point favorites, returning a 1.92x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they cover.
Kansas City is the home underdog, with a 1.78x payout if they cover the 13.5 points, and a 6.25x payout if they win outright.
- Spread: Broncos -13.5
- Over/Under: 36.5 (1.88x on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Broncos 1.08x | Chiefs 6.25x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Preview for NFL Week 17
Let's take a look at this primetime AFC West rumble.
Denver Broncos Preview vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos have already secured a postseason berth and risen to the top of the AFC standings with a 12-3 record, but their loss to Jacksonville in Week 16 raised concerns about their consistency in the final stretch.
Denver’s balance on both sides of the ball has fueled its rise — their defense ranks fifth in points allowed (19.7 per game), while rookie RB RJ Harvey (79.6 total YPG and 5 TDs since taking over the lead back role five games ago) has given them a reliable ground game.
Although he only had 1 passing TD last week, Broncos QB Bo Nix has been dependable under center, topping 295 passing yards in four of his past five games (including 352 in Week 16), and averaging 273.2 YPG during that span.
In sharp contrast to Denver's offense, the Chiefs have been struggling. They score just 22.5 PPG, the second-lowest PPG total in Mahomes' tenure.
Missing both Mahomes and QB Gardner Minshew due to injuries, everything is on second-year QB Chris Oladokun's shoulders on Christmas night.
The Broncos D will look to feast on an inexperienced QB and a ravaged offensive line as they push toward securing that coveted top seed in the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview vs. Denver Broncos
The Kansas City Chiefs' 2025 campaign has been a total failure. As they enter Week 17, Kansas City, which had won nine straight AFC West division titles since 2016, now sits at 6-9 in what’s become a lost season.
Throughout the season, Mahomes struggled with offensive inconsistency. Through 14 games, he had 22 TDs and 11 INTs with a passer rating of just 89.6. The Chiefs also lacked a rushing attack to ease the burden on Mahomes, ranking 22nd in rushing YPG (109.7), demonstrating a lack of their traditional mojo.
When compared to their franchise expectations, the statistical collapse is astounding. Key injuries to the offensive line and their star QB, as well as a general lack of cohesiveness, derailed Kansas City's offensive output. This has forced them to rely on inconsistent RB Isiah Pacheco and aging veteran RB Kareem Hunt — they've combined for just 989 yards on 260 attempts (3.8 YPC) — in the backfield when they sorely need stability.
Denver’s fifth-ranked pass rush should have a major edge against a Chiefs line that’s allowed 38 sacks protecting an inexperienced backup.
Broncos vs. Chiefs: Final Spread Prediction
Kansas City is coming off its most demoralizing loss of the season, a 26-9 smackdown courtesy of the 3-12 Tennessee Titans, a game where they weren’t competitive on either side of the ball. On Christmans Day, they get a tough home matchup as they look to right the ship with a third-string QB at the helm.
This just may be too much too soon for a young QB like Oladokun going up against Denver's ferocious pass rush. The Broncos enter Arrowhead with momentum and motivation, and their contrasting form makes a dominant road win plausible.
Make Broncos vs. Chiefs Picks on PrizePicks
The Broncos will look to get back on track and capture the top seed in the AFC on Christmas night, while the Chiefs will try to snap their four-game losing streak and play spoiler before heading into the offseason.
With PrizePicks, you can win real money during the 2025 NFL season if your predictions are correct. On Team Picks — now available in 22 states — you can pick on teams to win, spreads, and totals, and cash in if you're right.
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