Friday’s college football card features three clashes, concluding in Reno as the Nevada Wolf Pack (1-6) seek an upset over the Boise State Broncos (5-2).
The Broncos look for a 4-0 start in Mountain West Conference play, off consecutive home blowouts. The Wolf Pack have yet to beat an FBS squad this season since edging Sacramento State, 20-17 in Week 1.
Let’s dive into this Boise State vs. Nevada Prediction, NCAAF for Friday for this MWC battle, kicking off at 10:00 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Boise State vs. Nevada Prediction, NCAAF for Friday
The Broncos have scored 41 or more points in all five victories, while getting limited to 7 points in losses at USF and Notre Dame. Boise State handed UNLV its first loss of the season last Saturday, 56-31, marking the most points the Broncos have scored in a game since last November.
Nevada may have one win on the season, but the Wolf Pack have suffered several close losses. Three of their five defeats have come by 3 or fewer points, capped off by a 24-22 setback at New Mexico last Saturday.
Boise State Broncos
- The Broncos have seen success on the offensive side of the ball, ranking 37th nationally in Net EPA/play. Boise State sits 12th in the country with 478.6 yards per game, also tops in the MWC.
- In the last five quarters, BSU has scored 77 points against New Mexico and UNLV. In the seven quarters prior to that, the Broncos put up a measly 27 combined points.
- The Broncos edged the Wolf Pack last season at home, 28-21, behind 3 TDs from eventual first round pick RB Ashton Jeanty.
Nevada Wolf Pack
- Nevada’s offensive numbers have been offensive to say the least: They rank 132nd in Net EPA/play and 128th in offensive success rate at 35.9%.
- The Wolf Pack average the fourth-fewest points in the nation at 15.6. The only teams worse are Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, and UMass.
- Nevada has not scored more than 2 TDs in a game this season. In its lone victory over Sacramento State, one of its 2 TDs came on an interception return.
Boise State vs. Nevada Prediction, NCAAF for Friday
Boise State QB Maddux Madsen Projection: 235.5 Passing Yards
- In all four victories this season, Madsen has eclipsed this projection, throwing for an average of 276.6 yards per game.
- The offense was shut down in the losses to USF and Notre Dame, as the junior didn’t top the 225-yard mark in either outing.
- Madsen’s worst passing game of last season came against Nevada. He completed 9-of-20 passes for 119 yards, his lowest output since 2024.
- Nevada has allowed more than 236 passing yards once this season, as Middle Tennessee State QB compiled 247 yards in a 14-13 comeback win in Week 2.
Nevada RB Caleb Ramseur Projection: 35.5 Rushing Yards
- The senior has nearly tripled his output from last season on the ground. Ramseur rushed for 110 yards in 2024, but has jumped to 310 yards this season with 2 TDs.
- In three of the last four games, Ramseur has eclipsed 39 rushing yards. In two of those performances, he racked up 66 against Western Kentucky and 77 yards against Fresno State.
- Boise State’s defense sits 124th nationally in EPA/rush. Amazingly, they’re not the worst MWC team in that category, as Nevada, Air Force, and UNLV all rank lower.
- The Broncos have allowed five different players to rush for at least 100 yards in the last five games.
Boise State WR Chris Marshall Projection: 65.5 Receiving Yards
- Marshall is having a breakout season with 440 receiving yards after combining for 121 yards in his first two years at Texas A&M and Boise State.
- In his past two games, Marshall has busted this projection with 70 yards against New Mexico and 96 yards against UNLV.
- Nevada’s best statistical ranking from the EPA standpoint on either side of the ball comes against the pass, placing 41st in the country.
- Marshall has yet to eclipse 60 receiving yards in three road games, with his highest output coming in a 28-7 loss at Notre Dame with 58 yards.
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Boise State tries to stay unbeaten in Mountain West play on Friday, looking to avoid a pitfall against a Nevada squad on a five-game slide.
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