The NFL playoffs are still a few weeks away, but Sunday’s Bills vs. Patriots clash could bring some serious postseason vibes to Gillette Stadium.
Week 15’s AFC East bout (1:00 p.m. ET on CBS) sees the reigning MVP, Buffalo QB Josh Allen, square off against a 2025 MVP contender in New England QB Drake Maye.
With the Patriots holding the upper hand in the division race, the importance of this contest can’t really be understated as far as the regular season is concerned.
Below, we’ll break down our Bills vs. Patriots prediction and NFL Week 15 picks to consider. Use PrizePicks NFL to monitor player projections and make picks for real rewards if you’re right.
Bills vs. Patriots Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Sunday marks the 133rd all-time meeting between the Bills and Patriots. New England owns a commanding 80-51-1 series lead, including three wins in the last five matchups and a 23-20 triumph in Week 5 of this season.
On the injury front, three Bills — LB Terrel Bernard (elbow), CB Christian Benford (toe), and WR Josh Palmer (ankle) — are questionable for Sunday. All but Benford practiced on Friday.
For the Patriots, RB Terrell Jennings (concussion) is out and LB Robert Spillane (foot) is questionable. Jennings is going on the injured reserve list.
Bills vs. Patriots Over/Under, Spread
The Bills enter Sunday’s game as 2.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.75x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Patriots are home underdogs with a 1.96x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Buffalo Bills -2.5
- Over/Under: 51.5
- Game Winner Payout: Bills 1.75x | Patriots 1.96x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Bills vs. Patriots Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to get you prepared for Bills vs. Patriots.
- The Patriots are 8-4-1 against the spread this year, the third-best conversion rate in the NFL. That includes a 2-0-1 mark in divisional contests.
- This season’s New England squad boasts a dangerous offense. It ranks ninth in points per drive and second in passing yards despite being 25th in attempts.
- On defense, the Pats are well-rounded, sitting fifth in points per drive and 10th in yards per drive.
- Contrary to popular belief, the Bills’ defense is nothing to write home about. It’s middle-of-the-pack at best, slotting in at 18th in points per possession and 17th in EPA/play.
- Via ESPN, Buffalo is 5-15 straight up in its last 20 road outings against New England.
Bills vs. Patriots Picks for Week 15
Here are three Bills vs. Patriots picks for NFL Week 15. Some top same-game PrizePicks projections to consider include QBs Josh Allen and Drake Maye and RB James Cook.
Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Patriots Projection: 265.5 Pass + Rush Yards
- Allen averages 274.7 combined passing and rushing yards per game this season. In his last three outings, that number is 254.3.
- In 14 career outings against the Patriots, Allen averages just 233.5 total yards.
- The defending MVP has a 119.2 passer rating with 272.9 average yards through the air in seven home games. In six road contests, those numbers drop to 82.2 and 195.5, respectively.
- Per NFL Pro, Allen targets receivers behind the line of scrimmage at the fourth-highest rate (23%). New England’s defense allows the ninth-fewest yards (4.1) on such plays.
Bills RB James Cook vs. Patriots Projection: 80.5 Rush Yards
- Cook amassed just 49 rushing yards in Week 5’s loss to the Patriots, his third-lowest output of the season.
- New England’s defense has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to opposing RBs at 860.
- The Patriots have yielded -88 rush yards over expected, the fourth-lowest mark in the sport behind the Colts (-92), Seahawks (-97), and Lions (-98).
- Bengals RB Chase Brown is the only RB to reach 80+ rushing yards on New England this year.
Patriots QB Drake Maye vs. Bills Projection: 228.5 Pass Yards
- In year No. 2 in New England, Maye averages 262.5 passing yards per week. In his last four games, that mean is 281.8.
- Per SumerSports, no QB has racked up more pass EPA than Maye’s 110.55 in 2025.
- According to Sharp Football Analysis, with 8.0 yards per attempt in 10 straight games, Maye is tied with Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers and Hall of Famer Dan Marino for the longest streak ever.
- Maye has completed a staggering 75.7% of his passes against split-safety looks. The Bills run such coverage at the third-highest clip in the sport (49.5%).
Make Bills vs. Patriots Picks on PrizePicks
When Buffalo and New England duke it out, there will be plenty of opportunities for Bills vs. Patriots picks. The NFL Week 15 slate also leaves the door open for several other player projections and much more.
Just pick players, predict More or Less for their projected stats, and earn real money if you’re right.
Keep it locked in here with PrizePicks and the Playbook for continued NFL picks, predictions, and news.
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