Week 14’s Thursday Night Football bout features an NFC South clash between the Atlanta Falcons (4-9) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6). Atlanta’s postseason hopes are over, but Tampa Bay is still fighting for a divisional crown. Another win would give the Bucs a 0.5-game lead over the Carolina Panthers (7-6).
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson is one of the few bright spots for Atlanta this season. Ahead of TNF, Robinson touts 1,081 rushing yards (fourth) and 602 receiving yards (second among RBs). As one of the NFL’s star tailbacks, the former first-round pick is still drawing attention.
Let’s dive into some Bijan Robinson stats and a pick for Thursday’s battle with Tampa Bay on PrizePicks, including player projections for Week 15.
Bijan Robinson Stats, Pick for Thursday Night Football vs. Bucs
The latest WR Drake London injury update brings bad news for Atlanta. Alongside London’s absence (knee), Falcons TE Kyle Pitts (knee) is questionable. With few potential standout targets, Atlanta could turn to the run game more often. Proven by his lofty production, Robinson is more than capable of taking on more work as a receiver, too.
How are the injuries impacting Robinson’s top PrizePicks player projections?
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson vs. Bucs Projection: 75.5 Rushing Yards
Before getting too deep in the woods, let’s look at how Robinson's workload shifts when London is out of the lineup. We have a four-game sample size, during which Robinson is averaging 16.5 carries, 80.8 rushing yards, 3.0 receptions, and 29.8 receiving yards per game.
With 3.5 targets per contest during the stretch, the one-time Pro Bowler’s volume is actually lower than his 6.2 targets per game when London is active. His rushing usage in the split is right on par with his 16.5 carries per game on the year.
When London is out, Atlanta’s rush-play rate jumps to 48.2% compared to 45.4% on the season (13th). More carries for Robinson could be in the picture, but does that translate to success?
The Bucs feature a fierce rush defense, limiting opponents to only 4.2 yards per carry (16th), 100.6 rushing yards per game (eighth), and -0.09 EPA/attempt (third, via Sumer Sports). The 23-year-old RB totaled only 24 rushing yards on 12 attempts (2.0 yards per carry) in Week 1’s head-to-head meeting with Tampa Bay.
PrizePicks Team Picks has the Buccaneers favored by 6.5 points, suggesting the Falcons could find themselves in a negative game script. In the event of a significant deficit, Atlanta would likely look to air it out more.
Could it be tough sledding for Robinson on the ground on TNF?
More Bijan Robinson Projections vs. Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football
Below are some additional Bijan Robinson projections vs. the Buccaneers tonight, courtesy of the PrizePicks NFL board.
- 16.5 Rush Attempts
- 15.5 Yards on Longest Rush
- 38.5 Receiving Yards
- 117.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
- 20 Fantasy Score
- And More
Make Falcons vs. Buccaneers Thursday Night Football Picks on PrizePicks
According to PlayerProfiler, Robinson holds 238.9 weighted opportunities this season (second). With one of the heaviest workloads across the NFL, the third-year vet may be squarely in the spotlight tonight — especially with London out due to injury.
Will Robinson prevent the Bucs from building a lead in the NFC South race? Make your predictions for Thursday Night Football with PrizePicks. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and earn real-money rewards if you're right.
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