One of the two Monday Night Football matchups features an cross-conference showdown for the Atlanta Falcons, as RB Bijan Robinson and Co. host the AFC powerhouse in the Buffalo Bills at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Oct. 13 at 7:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Below, we'll dive into Bijan Robinson projections and our top pick for the star RB on Monday Night Football tonight on PrizePicks.
Robinson has been the focal point of Atlanta’s offense this season, ranking among the league leaders in total yards from scrimmage (584) through four games. He’s carried the ball 64 times for 314 yards and 1 TD while adding another 270 yards and 1 TD as a receiver.
Now, he’ll face a Bills defense that has struggled to contain explosive backs early in the year.
After a 181-yard performance in Week 4 against the Washington Commanders, find Robinson’s projections and top PrizePicks plays for Monday Night Football vs. the Bills below.
Bijan Robinson Projections vs. Bills for Monday Night Football
The Falcons’ offense revolves around Robinson, who has proven to be one of the most efficient dual-threat backs in football (16.0 rushing attempts and 4.5 receptions per game).
Through four appearances, he’s averaging 4.9 yards per carry and 7.1 yards per touch. His blend of power and patience has given QB Michael Penix Jr. a reliable safety valve as the Falcons ease him more into the passing game in 2025.
Atlanta’s commitment to the run game has paid off, ranking top 10 in both rushing yards (136.5, 6th) and average time of possession (33.30, 2nd). Robinson has handled 75% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps and 50% of the team’s rushing attempts, per PFF.
Buffalo’s run defense has been an issue, allowing 145.6 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry, both near the bottom of the league. That weakness plays directly into Robinson’s strengths as a runner who thrives in space and wears defenses down with second-effort yards (250 YAC, 2nd in NFL for RBs with at least 25 carries).
This game marks Robinson’s second opportunity on the primetime stage this season — a chance to reinforce his status as one of football’s most complete backs against a Bills defense searching for answers.
Bijan Robinson Projections vs. Bills Tonight
Bijan Robinson projections via the PrizePicks NFL board — pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and win money when you’re right.
- 74.5 Rushing Yards
- 32.5 Receiving Yards
- 110.5 Rush+Rec Yards
- 0.5 Rush+Rec TD (Goblin)
- 4 Receptions
- 20 Points Fantasy Score
- More projections, picks available here on PrizePicks
Bijan Robinson Pick vs. Bills: 74.5 Rush Yards
- Robinson has cleared 70 rushing yards in each of his last three games this season, and his 78.4 per game average is currently 7th in the NFL.
- The Bills have allowed a 70+ yard rusher twice in five games — Derrick Henry 169 in Week 1, and Kamara 70 in Week 4.
- His elusiveness remains elite, ranking second in the NFL in missed tackles forced (69).
- Expect Atlanta to lean heavily on Robinson early, especially with WR Darnell Mooney sidelined and Penix still developing consistency with WR Drake London downfield.
- 143 rushing yards was already racked up by Robinson in the team’s 22-6 win over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football in Week 2, so the primetime atmosphere may be calling on Robinson, yet again.
Bijan Robinson Pick vs. Bills: 4 Receptions
- Robinson has caught at least four passes in three of four games and sits fourth among running backs in targets (70).
- Buffalo’s linebackers have struggled in coverage, allowing the fourth-most receptions to RBs through four weeks.
- The Falcons use him more creatively than the average NFL RB — third on the team behind London and Kyle Pitts with 23 targets.
- His quick-hitting role pairs perfectly with Penix’s short-area accuracy and helps neutralize the Bills’ pass rush.
- If this game script trends pass-heavy, Robinson could make his presence felt in the air attack.
Make Monday Night Football Picks on PrizePicks
If Bijan Robinson delivers another explosive outing, the Falcons can control the pace and keep Buffalo’s offense on the sideline. His dual-threat usage and volume make him one of the most reliable fantasy and DFS plays on the board every time he hits the field.
No matter how you see Falcons vs. Bills playing out, PrizePicks lets you cash in on your predictions for Monday Night Football. Choose More or Less on Robinson’s stat projections — or stack him with picks on Michael Penix Jr., Josh Allen, or James Cook.
Just pick More or Less on player stats and win real money when your predictions are right. And lock in on Playbook for more NFL picks and predictions all season long.
