In this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off against the Atlanta Falcons in an NFC South showdown that the Buccaneers need to win to maintain a grasp on their share of first place in the division. You can watch this game on Amazon Prime Video at 8:20 p.m. ET.
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield has struggled over the past several weeks, dealing with a shoulder injury in addition to a decimated cupboard of receiving weapons. With that said, the veteran signal-caller is set to get some help via the returns of WRs Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan.
Let’s take a look at the key Baker Mayfield stats, a pick, and PrizePicks projections vs. the Falcons on TNF.
Baker Mayfield Stats, Pick for Thursday Night Football vs. Falcons
Mayfield has truly had a tale of two seasons up to this point. Over the first six games of the campaign, he put up MVP-level numbers: 257 passing yards per game, 12 passing TDs, and only 1 INT. Despite not having star WR Chris Godwin, recovering from a 2024 dislocated ankle, Mayfield had been surgical.
In Week 7, however, the Bucs lost Evans to a broken clavicle. The devastating injury required surgery and has kept Evans out for nearly two months, during which Mayfield struggled to find consistency.
His averages have dropped to 169 passing yards per game and a 57% completion rate since that Evans injury, totaling 8 TDs with 5 INTs. Adding insult to injury, Mayfield hurt his shoulder midway through Week 12 against the Los Angeles Rams. It was judged to be a sprain, but may have affected his throws as well.
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield vs. Falcons Projection: 19.5 Rush Yards
Despite the pass-catcher personnel shifting around all season long, one thing has mostly stayed consistent with Mayfield’s game: his legs.
Mayfield has rushed 43 times for 285 yards in 2025. His totals dipped midseason after a knee ailment and then an oblique strain popped up, but he bounced back after a few weeks of playing it safe. Outside of those three weeks where he didn't run at all, he has had More than Week 15's projection in seven games.
The Falcons have done really well to limit QBs through the air, but have struggled to do the same on the ground. They allow the third-most rushing yards per game to the position, per Lineups, and have allowed nine different QBs to have at least 19 yards rushing, including Mayfield in Week 1 when he had 5 carries for 39 yards.
More Baker Mayfield Projections vs. Falcons on Thursday Night Football
These projections come straight from the PrizePicks NFL board — pick your players, predict whether they’ll go More or Less on their stats, and earn cash if your selections hit.
- 219.5 Pass Yards
- 31.5 Pass Attempts
- 20 Pass Completions
- 240.5 Pass + Rush Yards
- 5.5 Rush Attempts (Demon)
- 16.5 Fantasy Score
- And More
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