Saturday's Auburn vs. Oklahoma game has layers as we begin SEC play in college football Week 4.
QB Jackson Arnold returns to Norman, Okla., as Auburn’s starter, almost exactly a year after head coach Brent Venables benched him at Memorial Stadium.
On the other side, QB John Mateer has turned Oklahoma into one of the most balanced teams in the country, leading an offense that piles up explosive plays while Venables’ defense has quietly become elite.
Below, we’ll break down our Auburn vs. Oklahoma prediction and PrizePicks player picks for Saturday's Week 4 matchup in Norman.
The No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) will look to keep rolling at home, fresh off limiting No. 21 Michigan to just 13 points, and Temple to 3. The No. 22 Auburn Tigers (3-0) arrive with a lot of steam, but they’ve failed to keep the offense consistent, and their defense has red flags all over the board.
With Arnold’s revenge narrative hanging over, and Mateer emerging as a Heisman frontrunner, this SEC showdown has plenty at stake. Let’s get into it.
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Auburn vs. Oklahoma Prediction, Preview for Sept. 20
The strength of the home team Sooners is their defense, which returns a stacked defensive line in 2025. That's paid off, as they've allowed just 19 points in three games, including 13 points vs. Michigan and freshman QB Bryce Underwood.
For Auburn, the defense hasn't been impressive (49th in adjusted EPA/play), but the Tigers are top 20 in offensive EPA/play, averaging 37 points per play, behind solid play from QB Jackson Arnold.
Auburn Preview
Arnold may be the difference-maker that Auburn desperately needed, but he hasn't faced a real test yet that compares to this stacked Sooners defense that is first in adjusted expected points added (EPA) per play, per Game on Paper.
The junior has already thrown for 500+ yards and four TDs while adding a career-best 137 rushing yards in the opener against Baylor — who has not impressed since that Week 1 loss, ranking 91st in adjusted EPA per play.
RB Jeremiah Cobb headlines the backfield with 314 yards and 4 TDs on 6.8 YPC.
Arnold is averaging fewer than 170 passing yards per game, and the receivers haven’t consistently created chunk plays. Against South Alabama, the Tigers finished with just 142 passing yards.
Defensively, Auburn has some leaks that could be a problem in this game. The Tigers allowed Baylor to complete 13 passes of 12+ yards, and they rank 60th in yards per dropback in college football and 120th in coverage grade, via PFF, despite some cakewalk matchups.
History doesn’t help Auburn either. The Tigers haven’t won a road game over a top-15 team since 2014 and are 1-11 straight up against ranked opponents since 2020.
Oklahoma Preview
QB John Mateer has wasted no time making Norman his stage. The Washington State transfer has Oklahoma inside the top 50 in Success Rate and top 40 in Finishing Drives. He’s also the only QB in the country averaging more than 300 passing yards and 50 rushing yards per game.
The weapons around him are deep. Deion Burks, Keontez Lewis, Isaiah Sategna III, and Jaren Kanak have combined for 59 catches, each averaging at least 12 yards per reception.
Collectively, they’ve forced 17 missed tackles after the catch — exactly the area where Auburn’s defense has struggled, ranking 102nd in tackling and missing 35 tackles already this yaer.
Venables retaking play-calling duties has made a huge difference. The Sooners rank second nationally in pass defense Success Rate and top 10 in both Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed.
They held Michigan to 13 points in Week 2, and opposing quarterbacks are completing less than 46% of their passes against this shutdown defense.
Auburn vs. Oklahoma Picks for CFB DFS – Week 4
This SEC rivalry between Auburn and Oklahoma brings plenty of player picks on the PrizePicks CFB board for Saturday, with opportunities on both sides of the ball.
Here are three player picks to target before the 3:30 p.m. ET lock.
Auburn QB Jackson Arnold Projection: 173.5 Passing Yards
Arnold’s legs have been his best weapon so far — his arm, not so much. Now, he gets his toughest matchup yet.
Averaging less than 170 passing yards per game — including just 108 vs. Baylor — and an Oklahoma defense holding QBs under 46% completion rate, Auburn’s chances to win rest on whether he can find balance against his former team.
Oklahoma made easy work of Temple QB Evan Simon last week after he started the season on a heater; Simon went just 13/25 with just 75 passing yards. Michigan's Underwood got absolutely nothing going through the air either, going 9/24 for just 124 yards.
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OU QB John Mateer Projection: 52.5 Rushing Yards
Mateer has been the most consistent dual-threat QB in the country this season, accounting for at least one rushing and passing TDs in nine straight games. Against an Auburn defense ranked outside the top 100 in explosives allowed, his ability to extend plays can shine here.
Mateer has rushed for 55 or more yards in six of his last seven games, dating back to last year at Washington State.
OU WR Deion Burks Projection: 64.5 Receiving Yards
OU WR Deion Burks’ speed and after-the-catch ability make him a dangerous matchup against Auburn’s 122nd-ranked coverage unit, according to PFF grades.
He’s been Mateer’s go-to big-play option early this season, as he's moved to playing the majority of his snaps out wide, rather than the slot.
In Oklahoma's lone competitive game this season vs. Michigan, Burks had 12 targets for a 7-101-1 stat line. He's averaging 75 yards per game, despite the two blowouts.
Make Auburn vs. Oklahoma Picks on PrizePicks
Saturday afternoon in Norman has all the storylines: Arnold’s return, Mateer’s rise, Venables’ defense, and two SEC contenders trying to prove they belong in the playoff conversation.
Ahead of the Auburn vs. Oklahoma kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET, it's time to lock in your CFB picks on PrizePicks to win real money. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions when you're right.
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