In-state rivalries are a theme of Week 14 of the college football slate, and Arizona vs. Arizona State is a top matchup on the schedule.
The Black Friday bout (9:00 p.m. ET on FOX) caps off the day's games, and it could be a doozy. With both Arizona teams being ranked and sitting at 8-3, there’s plenty to play for as the Big 12 conference continues to take shape late in the year.
Here, we’ll break down an Arizona vs. Arizona State prediction and CFB pick for Friday’s Territorial Cup. Use PrizePicks’ CFB game for player projections on QB Noah Fifita and others.
Arizona vs. Arizona State Prediction, Preview for Friday, 11/28
The Arizona-Arizona State rivalry stems all the way back to 1899. Over the years, the two programs have clashed 96 times on the gridiron, with the Wildcats owning a narrow 51-45-1 advantage. Last year’s 49-7 throttling by the Sun Devils injected new life into the series.
The Wildcats enter Black Friday’s game as 2.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.78x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Sun Devils are home underdogs with a 1.92x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats -2.5
- Total: 50.5
- Game Winner Payout: Wildcats 1.78x | Sun Devils 1.92x
Let’s take a closer look at the Arizona vs. Arizona State matchup on Friday.
Arizona Wildcats Preview vs. Arizona State
Year one with Brent Brennan at head coach didn’t go well for Arizona. They went 4-8 in their first season in the Big 12.
The 2025 campaign is being much kinder to the Wildcats. Their 8-3 record coincides with their only time being ranked this year, and they’re well-situated for a solid bowl game.
Arizona’s offense is respectable, ranking 27th in per-game scoring at 32.0 points, but their 81st-ranked third down attack (37.88%) leaves some to be desired.
Defensively, the ‘Cats are 14th in opposing yards per play (4.6) and 31st in scoring (21.7 PPG).
Arizona State Sun Devils Preview vs. Arizona
Arizona State shocked the college football world when head coach Kenny Dillingham led them to an 11-3 record and a Peach Bowl appearance in 2024.
ASU’s 2025 effort saw them peak at 11th in the AP poll. Since a 1-2 stretch mid-season, they’ve rattled off three victories in a row.
The Sun Devils’ offense isn’t nearly as potent as it was in 2024. It ranks 92nd in points per play (0.329) and its 57.49% completion rate is 114th. Poor health for QB Sam Leavitt likely factored into the struggles.
Arizona State’s defense thrives at stopping the run, ranking 28th in yards per play (3.6). That side of the ball is also 18th in the red zone (77.78%).
Arizona vs. Arizona State Territorial Cup Picks for PrizePicks
Below are prime Arizona vs. Arizona State picks to consider for Week 14. PrizePicks player projections include QBs Noah Fifita and Jeff Sims and RB Raleek Brown.
Arizona Wildcats QB Noah Fifita vs. Arizona State Projection: 222.5 Pass Yards
- Fifita averages 243.4 passing yards per game on the year. In his last six outings, however, that figure is just 222.7.
- In last year’s Nov. 30 meeting against ASU, Fifita accumulated a season-low 126 yards on 29 attempts.
- Arizona State’s defense ranks in the 84th percentile in yards per dropback allowed, per Game on Paper.
- Another matchup to watch is sacks. Arizona’s QB gets sacked 7.02% of the time, which ranks 94th in the nation. The Sun Devils’ pass rush gets home 8.02% of the time (18th).
Arizona State Sun Devils QB Jeff Sims vs. Arizona Projection: 176.5 Pass Yards
- In five 2025 games in which he’s received extended playing time, Sims averaged 154.4 passing yards.
- Per Game on Paper, Arizona’s defense surrenders the third-lowest EPA/pass (-0.26) and sits in the 96th percentile in pass success rate.
- Opponents post the fifth-lowest yard-per-pass mark (5.6 yards) against Arizona and are intercepted at the eighth-highest frequency (4.61%).
- According to Pro Football Focus, Sims’ 3.8% big-time throw rate is 93rd among 168 QBs with 100+ dropbacks.
Arizona State Sun Devils RB Raleek Brown vs. Arizona Projection: 83.5 Rush Yards
- Brown was quite steady in games six through 10 this season, averaging 63.4 yards per outing. In Saturday’s 42-17 drubbing of Colorado, he exploded for 255 yards.
- Opponents tend to run a ton on Arizona, as they face 38.3 attempts per game (100th in fewest per week).
- Per PFF, Brown’s 491 rushing yards on breakaway runs (15+ yards) are tied for seventh among RBs with 100+ carries.
- The Wildcats’ defense sits in the 32nd percentile in rush EPA/play (0.04) and is 44th percentile in rush explosives allowed.
Make #25 Arizona vs. #20 Arizona State Picks on PrizePicks
As the college football campaign slowly winds down, Arizona vs. Arizona State picks are far from the only ones to consider in Week 14. With PrizePicks’ real-money CFB game, you can cash in on the action.
Doing so is simple. Just pick your players, predict More or Less for their projected stats, and win rewards if you’re right.
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued college football coverage.
