We are so back — college football Week 1 is here. Alabama vs. Florida State highlights the afternoon slate of games in college football Week 1 on Saturday, August 30, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
We'll break down our Alabama vs. FSU prediction and CFB picks on PrizePicks, as two historic schools go head-to-head in a key game.
Kalen DeBoer’s second season as Alabama’s head coach kicks off at Florida State after missing the 2024 College Football Playoff, with junior QB Ty Simpson making his first start under center, looking to connect with star sophomore WR Ryan Williams.
DeBoer led Alabama to a 9-3 season, but the Crimson Tide missed the playoffs for the second time in the past five years, despite the 12-team expansion.
Florida State disappointed beyond belief in 2024; the Seminoles won just two games after a playoff appearance in 2023 as what many would agree was the worst Power Five team.
Let's get into the Alabama vs. Florida State predictions for Week 1, including our player picks for PrizePicks real money CFB game.
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Alabama vs. FSU Prediction, Preview for Saturday, August 30
These SEC and ACC powerhouses have not squared off since September 2, 2017. Alabama won that game, 24-7. The Seminoles want to do the improbable after their brutal 2024 season and knock-off the Crimson Tide in Week 1.
A loss in this game would mark Alabama’s first time starting a season 0-1 since 2001.
Alabama Crimson Tide Preview
DeBoer failed to win his first bowl game in 2024, as Alabama fell to Michigan, 19-13, in the Reliaquest Bowl. Jalen Milroe is off to the NFL after throwing for 2,800+ yards in each of the last two seasons.
Enter junior QB Ty Simpson, who will have three games to prepare for No. 5 Georgia. The Crimson Tide once again faces a gauntlet that includes four straight ranked opponents from October 18 to November 15 — No. 24 Tennessee, No. 13 South Carolina, No. 9 LSU, and No. 18 Oklahoma.
It's hard to know what to expect for this team coming into the year, but Crimson Tide fans are certainly expecting a step forward from DeBoer in his second season — no matter who's under center and who the opponents are. That's the world that Nick Saban's success created.
This is the Crimson Tide's first time opening the season on the road since 2020. And it's a solid opportunity for DeBoer to get off on the right foot in year two.
Florida State Seminoles Preview
A perfect 13-0 2023 season was left behind as the Seminoles were abysmal last season, finishing just 2-10. It marked one of the most horrific downfalls in college football history.
Florida State ranked 119 out of 134 college football teams last year in PFF's overall rating, around the likes of Georgia State and Massachusetts. Not exactly the Seminoles we are used to.
Now, they get a matchup vs. the greatest college football program of the 2000s to start their "bounce back" season. Not exactly ideal.
Even with new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn and Tony White leading the defense, the Seminoles have their work cut out for them here, as they have continued to try to rebuild their roster via the transfer portal.
One of those transfers is QB Tommy Castellanos, who played two seasons in the ACC at Boston College. In a full season in 2023, Castellanos threw for 2,248 yards, 15 TDs, and 14 INTs. FSU, this is your new starting quarterback.
Oh, and he gets to play PFF's sixth-rated defense in Week 1 to start off his Florida State career.
The Seminoles' two wins came against 6-6 California and 1-11 Charleston Southern. Three QBs threw for 500+ yards last season as the Seminoles couldn’t get into any rhythm offensively. They're hoping Castellanos can change the dying beat of that drum.
Alabama vs. FSU Picks & CFB DFS Plays
Despite both teams having disappointing 2024 seasons, there's a lot of players to watch in this game. We'll break down the top Alabama vs. Florida State player picks below, with player projections from the PrizePicks CFB board.
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Alabama QB Ty Simpson Projection: 249.5 Passing Yards
- Ty Simpson takes over the starting spot left vacant by Jalen Milroe, who is now on the Seattle Seahawks.
- Simpson joined Alabama in 2022 and has sat waiting for his chance since then, throwing just 5 passes as a redshirt freshman.
- The 6-foot-2 208-pound QB hasn’t thrown more than 25 passes in any of his three seasons.
- DeBoer went with Simpson as the starter after finishing the 2024 season with 167 passing yards and 44 rushing yards as Milroe’s backup.
- Florida State brings back seven key players on a defense that ranked 57th in yards per played allowed last year — 5.7 yards.
FSU QB Tommy Castellanos Projection: 199.5 Pass+Rush Yards
- Florida State was one of the worst offenses in college football last year, ranking 133rd in yards per play and 130th in success rate.
- Castellanos comes to Florida State after spending his past two seasons at Boston College, where he started for the majority of two seasons.
- The Georgia native completed a career-high 61.5% of his passes in eight games last season in the ACC.
- FSU’s new dual-threat QB finished the 2023 season with 1,113 rushing yards.
- Alabama was 10th in college football last year in yards per play allowed (4.6 yards), which ranked 10th, and they've made improvements to keep them at that level in 2025.
- The best defense in yards per pass attempt that Castellanos faced in 2024 was Virginia Tech (48th). He passed for 205 yards with 28 passing yards in that game. Alabama ranked 7th in the same stat in 2024.
- Upon transferring to the Seminoles, Castellanos was named to the Unitas Golden Arm Award Watch List.
Alabama WR Ryan Williams Projection: 71.5 Receiving Yards
- Ryan Williams opens as the clear WR1 for Simpson after leading the team with 865 receiving yards in his rookie season.
- Williams didn't have the electric second half of the season that Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith did, but he is still the No. 2 ranked WR in the nation by ESPN.
- After his 6-177-1 explosion vs. Georgia, Williams did not have over 100 yards in a game in 2024.
- Of qualified players, Williams averaged a team-high 18 yards per reception.
- The 6-foot, 178-pound WR had an 84-yard reception in Week 1 vs. Western Kentucky last season.
- In 2024, Williams finished five games with more than 72 receiving yards.
- As a freshman, Williams was tied for third in CFB in yards after the catch per reception at 8.3 yards, per PFF (min. 70 targets).
Make College Football Picks on PrizePicks
College football is officially here, and Week 1 is where we get our first look at new players, transfers, and what teams can compete in 2025. It all gets started in Week 1, with Alabama and Florida State at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Two powerhouses looking to rectify disapointing 2025 seasons together — both with new quarterbacks, and plenty of talent to evaluate.
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