The No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (25-9) vs. the No. 1 seed Michigan Wolverines (33-3) is a chalk matchup in the Midwest region. Yet, this has the largest point spread among Friday’s Round of 16 games, with Michigan favored by 10.5 points, per PrizePicks Team Picks.
Alabama is dangerous with red-hot shooting while winning its first two NCAA Tournament games by an average margin of +22.5 points per game. But will it be enough to take down one of college basketball’s most dominant teams?
Let’s dig into tonight’s matchup that tips off at 7:35 p.m. ET on TBS and truTV and make an Alabama vs. Michigan prediction while highlighting player picks for PrizePicks.
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Alabama vs. Michigan Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Drama continues to surround the Crimson Tide ahead of this matchup, as Alabama G Aden Holloway was arrested ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
This morning, he was “granted” his motion to travel out of the state of Alabama, meaning he could attend tonight’s game.
On Thursday, Holloway was already declared out for today’s Round of 16 game. The Tide’s second-leading scorer with 16.8 points per game (PPG) is unlikely to suit up tonight, but if Alabama advances, could he return for a regional finals matchup on Sunday?
Alabama has remained productive without Holloway, posting 90.0 PPG in the NCAA Tournament while going 2-0 against the spread (ATS). The Crimson Tide will look to keep pace with an elite Michigan offense, racking up 98.0 PPG in the NCAA Tournament.
Despite an 8-2 record over the last 10 games, the Wolverines are 2-8 ATS in the split.
These programs last met in 2009, with Alabama winning 68-66 as four-point underdogs.
Alabama vs. Michigan Spread, Over/Under
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Michigan is a heavy 10.5-point favorite on Friday, featuring a 1.19x payout if it wins. Alabama likely has an uphill battle ahead with its 4.54x payout if it wins.
Tonight’s over/under has a sky-high 172.5 total on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines -10.5
- Over/Under: 172.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Alabama 4.54x | Michigan 1.19x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Alabama vs. Michigan Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/27/26
Bart Torvik ranks Michigan fourth in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, proving its exceptional balance. Alabama, on the other hand, relies on its ability to score by sitting third in adjusted offensive efficiency and 56th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Tide’s path to points is as clear as day: launch 3-pointers at will. Alabama leads college basketball with 35.6 3-point attempts and 12.8 triples per game.
In the second round, the Crimson Tide cashed in 19-of-42 3-point looks (45.2%). They have totaled 15.5 made treys per game while shooting 39.7% from deep in the NCAA Tournament.
While the Wolverines hold opponents to only 69.6 PPG (84th percentile) and a 45.2% effective field goal percentage (99th percentile), they allow 26.7 attempted triples per game (eighth percentile) and a 42.2% 3-point shot distribution (25th percentile).
Michigan is also in the 94th percentile for the quickest adjusted tempos, playing into the Tide ranking fourth for the quickest pace (99th percentile).
Alabama vs. Michigan Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/27/26
Here are the top Alabama vs. Michigan picks to target for Friday, March 27, on PrizePicks. Today’s college basketball picks are headlined by Alabama G Latrell Wrightsell and Michigan F Yaxel Lendeborg.
Alabama G Latrell Wrightsell vs. Michigan Projection: 2.5 3-pointers Made
- During Holloway’s absence in the NCAA Tournament, Alabama G Latrell Wrightsell (13.1 PPG) has stepped up with 17.5 PPG in his last two games.
- The senior guard comes off a blistering 6-of-9 performance (66.7%) from 3-point land in the second round, tallying 24 points in the blowout win.
- Wrightsell has shot 47.1% from deep in the NCAA Tournament — smashing his 36.7% season-long mark.
- In his last seven games, he’s posted 3.3 made treys per game.
- With Michigan surrendering 8.2 3-pointers per game (31st percentile), will Wrightsell stay scorching hot?
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Michigan F Yaxel Lendeborg vs. Alabama Projection: 16.5 Points
- Alabama allows opponents to shoot 48.3% on 2-pointers (87th percentile) and 33.3% on 3-pointers (61st percentile).
- The Crimson Tide are in the 64th percentile of close-2 shot distribution allowed and give up 24.2 3-point shots per game (31st percentile).
- Michigan F Yaxel Lendeborg is a three-level scorer, shooting 64.8% on 2-pointers and 36.1% from beyond the arc.
- The potential NBA first-round draft pick is hot from 3-point land, converting 17-of-29 attempts (58.6%) in his last seven games.
- Lendeborg reached 20 points in two of his last three games, shooting 59.4% from the field during the three-game split.
Make Alabama vs. Michigan Picks on PrizePicks
Alabama vs. Michigan could be the highest-scoring Round of 16 matchup, backed by tonight’s 172.5 over/under. Both teams are efficient from 3-point land and face suspect perimeter defenses.
You can make your Alabama vs. Michigan picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news through the NCAA Tournament.
