For anyone trapped in a winter storm this weekend, the NBA has you covered with a seven-game Saturday slate, including a tripleheader on ABC. A clash between the Golden State Warriors (25-21) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (27-18) is ABC’s second contest of the day with a 5:30 p.m. ET tip-off.
Both squads are looking to gain momentum, as Golden State has lost back-to-back games while one of their top players recently suffered a season-ending injury. Meanwhile, Minnesota looks to snap a four-game losing streak.
Which team will grab a much-needed win in our Warriors vs. Timberwolves prediction and picks? A pair of players stand out for projections on PrizePicks.
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Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Golden State boasted 3-1 outright and against the spread (ATS) records against Minnesota in the 2024-25 regular season. However, the Wolves had the last laugh, defeating them 4-1 in the Western Conference semifinals.
Minnesota carried that momentum to the sole prior matchup of the 2025-26 campaign, winning 127-120 as 5-point underdogs on December 12.
Both teams have inconsistent ATS records over the last 10, with the Warriors at 6-4 and the Timberwolves at 5-5. The over is the only clear trend entering today, being 7-3 in Golden State’s past 10.
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Over/Under, Spread
According to NBA Advanced Stats, Minnesota ranks seventh in NET rating, with the Warriors sitting at ninth.
However, a recent injury is impacting the spread, as the T-Wolves are 5.5-point favorites with a 1.42x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Will Golden State make any noise with a 2.63x payout to win?
- Spread: Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5
- Over/Under: 237.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Warriors 2.63x | Timberwolves 1.42x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Injury Report
Let’s have a look at the full Warriors vs. Timberwolves injury report for Saturday’s matchup, via NBA.com.
Warriors Injury Report
- F Jimmy Butler III (knee): OUT
- F Jonathan Kuminga (knee): OUT
- G Seth Curry (back): OUT
Timberwolves Injury Report
- G Terrence Shannon Jr. (foot): OUT
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction on Spread
Warriors F Jimmy Butler III suffered a season-ending torn ACL, missing the last two games. While the injury likely knocks Golden State down the pecking order, its 3-point barrage could remain unaffected.
The Warriors posted 121.0 points per game (PPG) in Butler’s first two absences, surpassing their season-long total of 116.8 PPG (14th). Furthermore, Golden State still reached 44.5 3-point attempts per game in the two-contest split, compared to 44.5 on the season (second). Butler logged only 0.8 made triples per game, taking 64.5% of his shots within 10 feet of the rim.
Becoming more reliant on shots from beyond the arc could harm the Warriors on Saturday. The Timberwolves rank fourth in 3-point shot distribution allowed and 20th around the rim, via Dunks & Threes. Additionally, the Wolves cede only 12.5 made treys (seventh) and 34.9 shots from deep per contest (fourth).
Golden State shot only 32.6% from 3-point land in December’s head-to-head clash, falling short of its usual 36.7% mark (10th).
Adding to the Warriors’ interior troubles, they rank just 17th and 23rd in offensive and defensive rebounding rate. Minnesota carries an advantage by sitting 15th and seventh in those categories.
Golden State gives up 50.8 points in the paint per game (17th). The Wolves are effective in the interior, ranking ninth in shot distribution around the rim, paired with a 56.7% 2-point percentage (third) and 50.8 points in the paint per contest (13th).
Thanks to an excellent perimeter defense, Minnesota could force the Warriors into an interior battle, and Golden State may struggle around the rim without Butler in the rotation.
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Picks for PrizePicks Today: Saturday, January 24
Sticking with the theme of an interior battle, Warriors G De’Anthony Melton and Timberwolves PF Julius Randle could feast around the rim in player projections on PrizePicks.
Warriors G De’Anthony Melton vs. Timberwolves Projection: 12.5 Points
- When Butler is off the court, Melton sees the highest increase in usage rate (+4.2%), per FantasyLabs.
- The USC product is totaling 11.1 shots per contest and 14.9 PPG in January, surpassing his respective season-long averages of 9.4 and 11.3.
- Melton logs only 1.4 made triples per game and shoots a measly 30.3% from beyond the arc. He’s most effective around the rim, attempting 44.9% of his shots inside 10 feet.
- Following Thursday’s 22-point showing, Melton could be a promising target to step up in Butler’s absence and attack the Wolves’ interior D.
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Timberwolves PF Julius Randle vs. Warriors Projection: 22.5 Points
- Warriors F Gui Santos (6’7”) and F Draymond Green (6’6”) form an undersized Golden State frontcourt. Standing at 6’9”, Randle could expose the weakness.
- In January, the three-time All-Star has posted 23.4 PPG, eclipsing his 22.6 PPG average for the season.
- The veteran forward reached at least 23 points in three of his previous five outings, racking up 26.8 PPG in that stretch.
- Randle isn’t much of a threat from deep, making 1.6 triples per game while shooting 34.0%. With 48.1% of his attempts coming from within 10 feet of the basket, he may take advantage of Golden State ceding a 55.2% 2-point percentage (21st).
Make Warriors vs. Timberwolves Picks on PrizePicks
Will the Warriors add to their two-game losing streak without Butler in the lineup? The Timberwolves’ strong perimeter defense could force an interior battle, which might trouble for Golden State.
Make your Warriors vs. Timberwolves picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 30 states.
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