The top teams of the ACC Tournament have avoided upsets, as the No. 2 seed Virginia Cavaliers (29-4) will take on the No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils (31-2) for all the marbles on Saturday, March 14, at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke enters this game as a 5.5-point favorite to hoist the ACC Tournament title on PrizePicks Team Picks. Can the Cavaliers play spoiler?
Below, we’ll break down our Virginia vs. Duke prediction and picks for Saturday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Virginia vs. Duke Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
It’s been a tremendous season for the Virginia Cavaliers, who sit at 15-3 in conference play. They are currently on a four-game winning streak and defeated quality teams in NC State and Miami in the ACC Tournament.
Virginia flexed its muscles in Friday's 84-62 win vs. Miami as 2.5-point favorites in the ACC Tournament semifinals. The Cavaliers put forth a balanced effort, with four players scoring at least 15 points.
The Duke Blue Devils are a powerhouse, sitting at 31-2 overall and 17-1 in conference play. They're led by Duke F Cameron Boozer, who posts 22.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game while shooting an efficient 57.9% from the field and 41.8% from deep.
This is the second head-to-head battle of the season, with Duke winning the first in dominant fashion, 77-51.
Virginia vs. Duke Spread, Over/Under
The Blue Devils enter Saturday’s game as 5.5-point favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks.
The total is 140.5 points for the over/under, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils -5.5 (1.66x payout)
- Over/Under: 140.5 (1.96x payout)
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Virginia vs. Duke Prediction on Spread for ACC Championship – 3/14/26
Here are some stats to help make your Virginia vs. Duke prediction on the spread for Saturday, March 14's ACC Championship battle.
- Duke is 19-14-0 (57.6%) against the spread (ATS), ranking as the third-best record in the ACC.
- With tonight's contest in North Carolina, the ACC Championship could be a de facto home game for the Blue Devils.
- According to KenPom, Duke is the best in the country for NET rating (+39.26), and that sits a full 12.77 points over the Cavaliers (+26.49).
- Virginia ranks 275th in non-conference strength of schedule (-3.45), while the Blue Devils rank 18th (+10.08). Could the Cavaliers falter vs. a national title contender?
Virginia vs. Duke Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/14/26
Here are two of the top Virginia vs. Duke picks to target for Saturday, March 14, on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by Virginia F Thijs De Ridder and Duke F Cameron Boozer.
Virginia F Thijs De Ridder vs. Duke Projection: 22.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- It’s been a great season for De Ridder, who is averaging 22.6 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) per game.
- Thijs does most of his work around the rim and will face a Duke defense that ranks second in adjusted defensive efficiency (90.8).
- The Blue Devils are also an elite rebounding team, ranking 11th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (37.8%) and seventh in defensive rebounding percentage (24.8%).
- These difficult circumstances were evident in De Ridder's only matchup with Duke on February 28, when he recorded only 16 points and 3 rebounds (19 PRA).
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Duke F Cameron Boozer vs. Virginia Projection: 39.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Saturday's 39.5 PRA projection may be a tad high for Boozer, considering he averages 37.2 PRA per game.
- Boozer's fingerprints are all over Duke's elite 60.9% 2-point field goal percentage.
- Virginia could counter that strength, ranking fifth in 2-point field goal percentage allowed (44.7%)
- Duke ranks 289th and Virginia is 270th for adjusted tempo, suggesting a slow-paced matchup with few points.
- Boozer struggled in his only clash with the Cavaliers, totaling only 18-9-4 (31 PRA) while shooting 33.3% from the field.
Make Virginia vs. Duke Picks on PrizePicks
The ACC Championship should be a fun matchup between the conference's top teams, and Virginia vs. Duke is just one of many ways hoops fans can get in on the daily college basketball action.
You can make your Virginia vs. Duke picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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