According to Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology, the Big Ten is tied for the most team bids at ten. The Ohio State Buckeyes (15-8) are currently listed as the first team out. Ohio State will look to boost its resume against the USC Trojans (18-6) tonight at 6:30 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network.
The first matchup of the Big Ten Network’s Wednesday tripleheader has plenty of stakes, as both teams are currently on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Below, we’ll break down the matchup, provide a USC vs. Ohio State prediction and spread, and circle player projections from PrizePicks.
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USC vs. Ohio State Prediction, Spread
Last season’s head-to-head clash is the only recent matchup, with Ohio State winning 87-82. The Buckeyes covered the spread while the over hit.
The under is 6-4 in the last 10 games for both teams. Neither team has a reliable against the spread (ATS) trend, as USC is 3-2 and OSU is 2-3 in the last five matchups.
USC vs. Ohio State Over/Under, Spread
While USC sports the best record, Ohio State is an 8.5-point favorite and has a 1.29x payout to win. In a matchup of contrasting styles, tonight’s 150.5 total could cause headaches.
- Spread: Ohio State Buckeyes -8.5
- Over/Under: 150.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: USC 3.22x | Ohio State 1.29x
Team picks data is live as of publishing and is subject to change.
USC vs. Ohio State Prediction for Spread
Bart Torvik ranks USC 47th and Ohio State 39th in its efficiency rankings. Plus, NCAA NET Rankings list the Trojans at 49th and the Buckeyes 41st. Yet, OSU is a clear 8.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
After USC G Rodney Rice suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in late November, USC found a way to stay afloat. Now, USC F Chad Baker-Mazara is questionable with a knee injury. Rice recorded 20.3 points per game (PPG) over six games, and Baker-Mazara leads the team with 18.3 PPG in 23 appearances.
According to Bart Torvik, the Trojans rank 95th in adjusted offensive efficiency, the third-worst mark in the Big Ten. USC looks to attack the rim, ranked in the 64th percentile of close twos shot distribution. However, Ohio State is in the 93rd percentile for close twos shot distribution allowed.
On the other end of the court, USC ranks in the 30th percentile of 3-point shot distribution allowed and gives up 26.0 attempted triples per game (16th percentile). The Buckeyes are in the 54th percentile of 3-point shot distribution.
OSU boasts one of the conference’s best offenses, ranked 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency and sports a 55.7% effective field goal percentage (90th percentile). The Trojans could be in trouble, as opponents average 75.8 PPG (44th percentile).
If Baker-Mazara is out, we could be in store for a lopsided Big Ten clash.
USC vs. Ohio State Picks for PrizePicks: Wednesday, February 11
Baker-Mazara’s injury has been a notable hit to USC, but it’s allowed USC G Alijah Arenas to enjoy an increased role. Arenas’ hot streak catches the eye, and Ohio State G John Mobley has a favorable matchup for projections on PrizePicks.
USC G Alijah Arenas vs. Ohio State Projection: 19.5 Points
- The former five-star prospect made his collegiate debut on January 21 and has logged 13.8 PPG.
- After totaling only 23.3 minutes per game in his first four games, Arenas recorded 36.0 minutes per contest in the last two.
- His increased usage in the previous two matchups led to 26.5 PPG.
- Baker-Mazara was out on February 8 and played for only 20 minutes in the February 3 matchup, contributing to the freshman’s 20.0 shots per game in the split.
- The son of former NBA star Gilbert Arenas has drained 3 triples in back-to-back games, and Ohio State is in the 32nd percentile of 3-point shot distribution allowed.
Ohio State G John Mobley Jr. vs. USC Projection: 15.5 Points
- Mobley leads OSU with 7.3 trey attempts per game, paired with an efficient 40.5% from deep. USC ranks in the 16th percentile of 3-point shots per game allowed.
- The sophomore guard has increased his volume to 9.0 3-point shots per matchup in the last seven games.
- While Mobley averaged only 9.3 PPG in the last three games, he’s still recorded 18.4 PPG over the previous seven appearances.
- USC G Kam Woods could be Mobley’s primary defender, and EvanMiya gives the Trojan guard an underwhelming 0.90 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR).
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Make USC vs. Ohio State CBB Picks on PrizePicks
If Baker-Mazara sits out of his second consecutive game, will Arenas continue his big-time production for USC? The Trojans will likely need players to provide increased scoring to keep up with one of the Big Ten’s top offenses.
Make your USC vs. Ohio State picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 30 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued College Basketball predictions, picks, and news.
